Olympics 2012 - Men's 5,000m

Only the very greatest of Olympians have completed the distance double at an Olympic games, and tonight’s big question for British Athletics is whether Mo Farah – just seven days after his momentous victory in the men's 10,000m final - can prove himself special enough to be ranked amongst the great distance runners of the modern age, with names such as Zapotek and Viren, the latter being one of the very few athletes to ever complete the distance double at successive games.

Farah, the world champion at this distance, had been as short as 11/10 for this event in the aftermath of Super Saturday, but after a fourth in his heats, where the physical and mental exertions that had taken place in the heat of Saturday had clearly taken their toll, when he had to work hard to finish third in 13min 26sec and secure one of the five automatic qualifying places in his semi-final, he was pushed out to the 7/4 he trades at now, a slightly weak joint favourite with Ethiopian hotshot, world leader and World Championship Bronze medallist Dejen Gebermeskel. Commenting that he felt like a “marked man” – one of the few downsides to being the world leader and Olympic champion at an event – afterwards, he also remarked that “By the time I got back on Saturday night, it was late and there was a lot of emotion. It is something I had never done before and now I know how much it takes out of you,” noting the publicity that had engulfed him since his wonderful win.

Many have expressed concerns about a double bid in light of this, but time should be taken to remember who we’re talking about. Farah (who had been seen as a better 5,000m than 10,000m runner before this event) ran 62 and 53 second final laps to win the 10,000m – a testament to the time that Alberto Salazar has spent improving not just Farah but his 400m speed for a fast kick – and ran 54 seconds to make it through to the final, an impressive performance if he was as below par as it seemed on Wednesday. Farah is also the World Champion at this distance, which stands him in good stead for this task, and he has beaten most of his main rivals in elite competition before.

Much has been made of the fact that at the Paris Diamond League meeting over 5,000m, the first six athletes home all posted times faster than Mo's personal best – including joint favourite Gebermeskel – although the pacemakers used during that event aren’t employed here, and Mo has beaten them all over 5,000m before, as well as improving his speedwork hugely.  This is a massive test for him, but he’s long looked better over this distance and in a truly run race, he has a standout chance of taking his first gold with 3 days between the races to help him, and if not for the fiasco on Wednesday, then he’d be shorter than the 9/5 he is with Blue Square.

The main list of rivals to the top two in the market are headed by familiar American foe Bernard Lagat and two 18-year-old sensations, Ethiopia’s Hagos Gebrhiwet and Kenyan Isiah Kiplangat Koech. Gebrhiwet ranges from 14-25/1 to win, namely because he’s been beaten by Gebermeskel twice this season despite winning an earlier high level race in Shanghai. He’s 9/2 for a medal, which is tempting based on the fact that Isiah Koech is far shorter than him to get a medal and in the general market, yet was well behind him in the Paris event being used as such a strong formguide for the market.  If that’s true, then the 25’s about a Gebermeskel/Gebrhiwet 1-2 looks big, and Farah doubters can get 11’s about a Gbermeskel/Lagat forecast, much like the women’s 5,000m where runway 10,000 winner Dibaba couldn’t get away from the field and was outpaced late on for third behind Defeat and the bronze medallist from the 10,000 Vivan Cheruiyot. At the prices, to cover for a Farah disappointment, the 11/1 on the former looks to be the shrewdest move.

The legendary Bernard Lagat, who sealed his place in greatness when competing his own special double at the 2007 World Championship of 1,500 and 5,000 meters,  has to be regarded as a threat despite being unable to catch Farah in Daegu last year. He was actually beaten by Farah’s US training partner Galen Rupp, and while Lagat is third favourite and a clear one at that, Rupp is as big as 28/1 for a medal and 7/2 for a medal despite having improved a lot over the past year as all evidence shows. A repeat of the 1-2 in the 10,000m looks unlikely but I’ve seen worse 25/1 shots, and with such a high quality field, the 80/1 about a new world record on Betfair might be under threat.

Advice

3 pts Mo Farah (9/5 Blue Sq)

1 pt Gbermeskel/Lagat (11/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt Galen Rupp to medal (7/2 Hills)

1 pt Hagos Gebrhiwet to medal (9/2 Paddy Power)