Friday 10 August 2012

2012 Olympics - Men's 4x400m relay

Barring disqualification (2000), one boycott (1980) and one withdrawal (1972), the last time USA failed to win the Olympic 4x400m title was 60 years ago at the 1952 games, but they may face one of their strongest challenges in the shape  of the Bahamas tonight.

For the first time ever, no American started in the 400m final, and while that can be explained by the   injury to LaShawn Merritt in the heats, they are also without Jeremy Warnier, ran the third leg in 2004 and the anchor leg in 2008 in victories by the Americans, which leaves them short of class and experience in equal measure. Thanks in large part to the heroics of Manteo Mitchell (who ran with a broken leg but refused to pull up), Joshua Mance, Tony McQuay and Bryshon Nellum made it to the final but they’ll be without Mitchell, which leaves them looking towards reserves for the final tonight.

The Bahamas - silver medallists 4 years ago - just got the better of the USA in their heat, look settled and happy with their 4 (three of their squad having posted sub-45 clockings this year, including 400m finalist Chris Brown), safe with the baton, and ready to throw down a great challenge, so in a two horse race, they have to be the choice at 5/2 compared to 8/15.

The bronze medal position looks to be a straight shootout between four teams, with World Championship bronze medalists Jamaica having failed to make the final on account of  Jermaine Gonzales pulling up with an injury in the third leg of their heat.  Great Britain –who posted the fastest ever non-medal-winning time in any athletics championships in history 4 years ago 0 are interesting medal shouts if Jack Green runs a leg as fast as he did in the heats – where Marytn Rooney said that he eased down significantly late – then they may well take bronze ahead of Trinidada and Tobago, although they are missing Renny Quow, who tugged his hamstring before the individual 400 finals. GB can be backed at 11/8 for what would essentially be third spot ahead of the Islanders, and that’s interesting although that’s not as tempting as the 5/2 on the Bahamas for the win.

Belgium have the Borlee brothers to run sub 44 second laps, but they were fifth at the 2011 World Championships and the last Olympics, so don’t make a huge amount of appeal despite being as big as 4/1 for a medal, and the rest look to be a step or two behind on all known form.

Advice

2 pts Bahamas (5/2 general) 

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