Women’s 200m Breaststroke Final: The Queen of the breaststroke,
Rebecca Soni, is expected to win gold and win well judged by her odds of just
1/25, and rightly so after she clocked a world record in the women's 200-meter
breaststroke by posting 2:20.00 in her semi-final. She will win but there’s no value in any
market regarding her, so it’s best to look elsewhere.
The two that offer value are Russian Yulia Efimova - who
took silver in last year's World Championship and qualified fourth-fastest for
this final in lane 1, taking things very easily in the end –and Japan’s Satomi
Suzuki, who took bronze in the 100m breaststroke behind Meilutytė and
Soni. Rikke Pedersen beat Efimova and
Satoma Susuzki’s best times in the semi but I’m willing to bet that form can be
reversed in the heat of the final. In a betting without Soni market, Pedersen
is evens but Suzuki is 5/4 and Efimova a big 7/2. Susuki went faster than
Efimova in her semi finals was the only one in a country mile of Soni in the
semis, so looks the best bet in the w/o market, although 11.8 on Efimova to get
either silver or Bronze seems to be a solid wager as well.
Advice: 1 pt Satomi Susuki w/o Soni (5/4 Hills)
Men’s 200m IM final: The much anticipated “Duel in the Pool”
of Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte hasn’t really materialized following some
below par efforts for Phelps and that’s reflected by the price of 2/5 for
Lochte to take another gold medal after the 400m Individual Medley and 4x200m
Team Medley.
In nearly all of his swims he’s looked absolutely dominant,
and the heats were no different, where he handed a good smashing to Phelps
while gliding in as he liked – there was nearly a second’s difference between
them. There’s no value in him to win, and Phelps looks incapable of turning the
tables, so the pair are best bypassed.
Hugarian Lazlo Czeh was second quickest in the semis, even
faster than Phelps, and looks to be great value for a medal of any kind being
in such great form here. A Lochte/Czeh forecast is 7/2 and looks to be a good
bet here – as sad as it is to write – and a medal of any kind lookd to be a
banker with only Brazil’s Thiao Pereira – the 400IM silver winner – a threat.
Advice: 1 pt Lochte/Czech straight forecast (7/2 Skybet), 3
pts Czeh to medal (1/2 general)
Women’s 100m Freestyle Final: Dutch star Ranomi Kromowidjojo
– already the holder of the best textile suit time here - is one of what seem
to be an endless list of long odds on favourites for their medals, but she’s
well deserving of odds on quotes of 2/9 following a superb swim in the semi-finals,
where she broke the Olympic record in a stunning 53.05 seconds, leading from
start to finish. On that form, it’s impossible to see her being beaten although
there’s no value at all in her price.
Australian Melanie Schlanger – who actually beat Ranomi in
the first heats when she took it easy - was impressive in winning the other
semi, clocking 53.38 seconds at the finish of her heat, and if repeating that
sort of effort in the final, she looks nailed on for a medal here – she has 0.23
in hand of US Superstar Missy Franklin, which makes the 11/8 on her winning
without the favourite look very appealing.
Missy Franklin impressed when going quicker than Tang Yi
behind Kromowidjojo in the second semi and she needs respecting here, having
built up a head of steam at these games with two golds and a bronze. She can
beat Tang Yi once again to make a medal, but looks to be behind the top 2 in
terms of pure speed at this distance, and the Australian looks to be the best
bet for second behind the lightning quick Dutchwoman.
Advice: 3 pts Melanie Schlanger w/o Kromowidjojo (11/8
Hills)
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