2012 Olympics - Women's 5,000m

It’s the news that all women’s 5,000m runners had been dreading: Tirunesh Dibaba of Ethiopia is running in the 5,000m. The Olympic champion, so impressive when destroying the double world champion Vivian Cheruiyot and her countrywoman Sally Kipyego in the women’s 10,000m – surely one of the performances of the games.

Just as good at 10,000, she is too fast, too strong, too tactically versatile and too good to be beaten if turning up in the same form – and there’s no reason to assume that she can’t – and even 1/2 can’t be argued with.

The first seven home in the Diamond League from Rome are now responsible for the top eight times in the world this year, and that’s the place to look again for any value. On that day, Cheruiyot beat Defar in a photo finish, but neither looks to be capable of beating Dibaba despite tempting prices of 5 and 11/2 respectively, and they are ridiculously short in the medals markets.

Gelete Burka made that pace in Rome and would be a bigger danger in a slowly run race, although her stamina might well give at this level and she might go home empty handed. Viola Jelagat Kibiwot passed her in that Diamond League race late on to take third, and while she’s not in the class of the top three, she’s too big for a medal if others overcook it early on, and at the prices she makes much more appeal than Kiyego, who may have the better record but is more than 4 seconds behind on seasonal bests and only 5/4 for a podium finish.

Advice

1 pt Viola Jelagat Kibiwot to medal (5/2 Hills)