What’s not to like about a price of 6/5 for a team that won the League unbeaten last year, let in just 20 goals all season, and have arguably strengthened while their rivals – including the 4 point runners up, who have actually lost their top scorer and best centre back – are arguably weaker and were all in significant arrears at the end of last season?
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| Conte's suspension is bad news for Juventus |
Not only have Juve kept the same squad that took them towards last season’s title, but in mind of a serious challenge they’ve signed excellently over the summer. The arrival of Udinese startlets Mauricio Isla and Kwadwo Asamoah is a huge boost for them not only in terms of potential goals but also the quality of service in attack that Alessandro Matri – who scored just 10 goals last season – needs to establish himself fully as a top level Serie A Striker, while both of them are capable of scoring themselves (the players are also very versatile as well) if not used in unlocking defences. They scored 3 goals each last year but played a huge part in Atonio Di Natale’s 23 goal tally and without them Udinese lost 11 games last year compared to just 3 with them. It’s a big statement of intent from the Bianocnieri, who startlingly have the potential to improve upon a staggering 15 draws last year.
The search for a big name striker looks set to be a fruitless one, but hopefully Matri can step up on his 10 goals last year with the new support from midfield and the return of Sebastian Giovinco from Parma, adds extra bite to keep the defensive side of things tight. I’m not sold on the arrival of Lucio from Inter but he at least provides some cover if needed and Buffon is one of the world’s best keepers, while Paul Pogba must have been highly regarded by Sir Alex Ferguson even if for his attitude issues. Of course the rest of the team is the same outfit that went unbeaten last season and then provided the core of the Italy side that found only Spain too good at Euro 2012, including Marchisio, Givoinco, Bonuccio, Barzagilhi, Chiellini and the irrepressible Andrea Pirlo, who has looked as good as ever during Euro 2012.
Plenty of people will have availed themselves towards the 6/5 about Juventus and that would be an fantastic bet were it not for one thing; Antonio Conte being handed a ten-month ban for failing to report match-fixing alleged to have taken place during his spell in charge of Siena. Conte was a huge part in their rejuvenation last season – they had finished seventh before romping to the title – and is sure to be missed badly, and to compound that, assistant Angelio Alessio received an eight-month sanction relating to the same situation and Cristian Stellini also resigned after agreeing to a 30 month suspension. Massimo Carrera has seen the side to a 4-2 extra time win over Napoli in the Coppa Italia but it remains to be seen how he himself handles not only the challenge of retaining the title but also a Champions League challenge.
It could be that Juventus are the kind of side that handle themselves well and that their class could out, but if football history has ever thought us anything it’s that managers can make the difference between winning and losing titles, and as much as I may come to regret this in 9 or so months, I can’t be getting seriously involved pre-season. A couple of weeks, if the price still remains, it may well be worth tucking in fully after seeing how they’ve shaped up.
Milan were just 4 points behind Juventus but have suffered serious losses pre-season and can expect to finish further behind. A slightly ageing side was always going to need a shake-up but the exodus of Gennaro Gatuso, Filippo Inzaghi, Mark van Bommel Alessandro Nesta and Gianluca Zambrotta all in one go seems to be a bit much and there’s got to be a worry that their experience will be missed badly not only on the pitch but in the dressing room and also behind the scenes.
The real crushing failure for them has to be the departure of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Thiago Silva both to Paris Saint-Germain. The actual sale of such talent underlines the money issues that the club is suffering but the reality is that the best forward and centre back in Serie A have both left the club and without them some struggle to foresee them making European football and it’s hard to disagree with that. Ibrahimovic’s 28 goals were the most of anyone in the division last year while Silva is generally regarded as one of the world’s best centre backs (something he underlined at the Olympics when being the only one of Brazil’s back four to have a decent tournament) and the failure to replace both sends a death knell.
Ibrahimovic is not the only quality player that AC have in attack but the loss of Antionio Cassano – more on him later – is a big blow while Robiniho blows hot and cold in terms of goalscoring as well as general performance and the most talented forward left at the club Alexandre Pato, is sadly still as fragile as ever, being set for at least three weeks out after suffering an adductor muscle tear. It’s a tremendous shame to see such a brilliant player on the sidelines but he can’t be trusted to be kept fit – going back to 2010 he’s missed 405 days of action and was absent for 30 games last year – and his absence is another crushing blow.
Stephen El Shaaarawy and Anotnio Norcerino are decent players in their own right and with the help for Kevin Prince Boateng, should step up a bit to help goalscoring duties, but the loss of Ibrahimovic looks too big to offset. Replacements Giampaolo Pazzini, Kevin Constant, Cristián Zapata, Francesco Acerbi are all nothing on Riccardo Montlivo, who is a good bit of business at a time they needed it, but on balance Milan are extremely opposable.
Rivals Inter had a truly horrendous season last year when 6th and 26 points off the pace but there are many good reasons why they never threatened – quite literally - last season. They went through three managerial changes but surely the most damaging was Gian Piero Gasperini’s horrendous opening spell which saw them try and play a 3-4-3 with an ageing side, which ended any hopes they had of trying to make an impact on the season.
Caludio Ranieri’s appointment looks to have turned things around but he couldn’t get a run going either, being sacked after just 1 win in 10 league games, and in the end it was entrusted to 36 year old Andrea Stramacconi to bring home the season with just two losses and a Derby win over AC Milan that decided the title’s destination early.
The managerial instability which cost them so badly last season came about as a result of, and was was compounded by, an ageing squad which didn’t have the tools to compete in defence against the best teams and left them vulnerable going back.
The likes of Lucio, Walter Samuel, Christian Chivu and Maicon were all a step or two slower than a year or two and were always the weak point whenever Inter got pressured, while no team in the 5 above them let in more goals than their 55 – infact few teams in Serie A did. They are also capable of improving upon a tally of just 58 scores. It was a tally which compared favourably with the tight bunch from 3rd to eighth last year but one which has significant potential for improvement following an impressive raft of new signings in attack this year.
Amongst just some of the charges Inter have picked up are super shotstopper Samir Handanovic from Udinese, defender Matias Silvestre, wingback Álvaro Periera, midfielders Walter Gargano, Gaby Mudingayi, and Freddy Guarin, plus Rodrigo Palacio, Antonio Cassano from Milan Not many of these names would have the star appeal of Juve’s additions, but Palacio scored 19 times for Genoa last year despite the club nearly going down, Handovic’s Udinese side let in just 35 goals last year, Pierara and Guarin (above) were two of the outstanding players for a strong Porto side, and Matias Silvestre was part of the Catania side that that third consecutive record points total for the Sicilian club before impressing last year.
The brilliance in getting £7m for Antonio Cassano in a straight swap while offloading the misfiring Pazzini the other way is underlined when you read that Casssano was AC’s leading provider of assists last season despite playing just 16 games in total, and his movement upfront should create havoc for Diego Miltio – who scored 24 goals last year despite all the turmoil at the club.
This is all supplemented by the return to form of Wesley Sedijder, who played just 20 times in Serie A last season amongst a loss of form which saw him score just 4 times last year after suffering a nagging muscular problem. How lacklustre Inter were last season is a timely reminder of how much they rely upon him but there’s no kidding that he was one of the best players at the Euros despite Holland’s wretched form and a return to form for the Dutch maestro gives Inter a really positive outlook for the new season going both forward and back.
Inter are just 5/1 to win the title with Paddy Power (and shorter elsewhere) but might be worth backing to come runners up to Juve in a straight forecast at the same price with Bet Victor, while 5/6 on them to make the top 3 is of interest too – they had won three straight titles before their decline and look well capable of ousting Milan.
Udinese will be of interest for some but have Mauricio Isla, Kwadwo Asamoah and Samir Handanovic all in one go. They’ve recovered well from losing key talent before (Barcelona’s Alexis Sanchez being a textbook example) but there’s a gut feeling that the loss of the creativity and pace on both wings will make this year more of a struggle than talisman Antonio Di Natale is used to and they could struggle badly. Colombian Luis Muriel is tipped to shine by many on his return from relegated Lecce while Willians is a top notch player to have in midfield but the feeling is that it will all be too much for the young side.
Lazio were fourth last season and have had a fairly solid transfer market in the summer with Antonio Candreva and Ederson coming, although it all looks set to come down to the trio of Stefano Mauri, Cristian Ledesma and star midfielder Hernanes once again. They can go well again despite the departure of Edy Reja but Inter and Napoli look set to improve past them this season.
The partrenopei were fifth last season but missed out by just three points, a bold showing considering how much time and effort they gave towards a bold bid in the Champions League, and they proved their quality by being the only team to beat Juventus all year in Italy in the final of the Coppa Italia at the end of the season.
The three Tenors have been broken up thanks to Lavezzi’s departure to PSG but there are high hopes that Eduardo Vargas – who ended 2011 with 25 goals and 11 assists from 44 matches, superb when winning the Copa De Sudamericana with Universidad de Chile with 11 goals throughought the tournament the most in history - can fill the gap while Lorenzo Insgine is one of the most touted young players in Italy following a spectacular period on loan with Serie B Champions Pescara , for which he was hailed as ‘Napoli’s messi’ by Goran Pandev – and a record of 37 goals in 70 Serie B appearances augurs well for his future, while his happiness in the 4-3-3 that Zedman used is also a good sign. Marek Hamsik, Christian Maggio and Edinson Cavani are all still at the club and without the pressurs of Eruopean football, they look sure to launch a big challenge and are worth considering for a top 3 spot with Milan potentially faltering, while a surprise runners up spot wouldn’t surprise at all. They’re 9/1 without Juve
Roma have added one of the most exciting managers in Italy through Serie B’s -Zdenek Zeman, returning to the club 13 years after being sacked amid rumours that he had become a "political" inconvenience. For those who aren’t well acquainted with his traditional way of going about things, this is what Zeman had to say about Jose Mourinho; “a great communicator who hides his mediocrity as a coach very well" and his achivement "Manager like Mourinho is hailed as genius because he wins. Well, he wins because he has the best players, not because of what he does. I could put my dead grandfather in charge of his teams and they would still win."
Regardless of his quirky style and comments, the arrival of Zedmen is good news for Roma who will be desperate to improve on their seventh placed finish last season. His aggressive style will suit a team which has never been one for defensive steel and while Luis Enqriue had good intentions, they were never really realised properly.
Keeping Daniele De Rossi at the club was a massive boost for them while they have Osvaldo, Bojan, Lamela and Totti in a side which has Italy’s Federico Blazaretti at fullback, and Matia Destro’s arial gives them a lot of firepower up front. With no European commitments they are interesting but Inter and Napoli could be the two to challenge Juventus most this season.
Advice
2 pts Juve/Inter straight forecast (5/1 Bet Victor)
1 pt Juve/Napoli straight forecast (20/1 Bet Victor)
5 pts Inter to finish in top 3 (5/6 Bet365)
1 pt Napoli to finish in Top 3 (12/5 Bet365)
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