Premiership 2012 - 13; Liverpool v Manchester City

Brendan Rogers’s Liverpool reign got off to a poor start when they were beaten 3-0 by West Brom and things can only get more difficult for him when champions Manchester City travel to Anfield this afternoon.

Liverpool were not as bad as the scoreline suggests at the Hawthorns – Luis Suarez wasted numerous chances and should have given his side the lead, while two of the three penalties were very questionable – but those were the same faults as last season and there’s been a  worrying lack of cutting edge about them for well over a year now. The loss of Daniel Agger for this game is also a crushing blow especially at this time given how badly Liverpool were exposed last week on the break, and the long and short of it is that Liverpool have picked up just 18 points in 20 Premier League games in 2012, and the reds had the worst chance conversion rate in the top flight in 2011/12, scoring with just 9% of their attempts.

The Citizens haven’t won any of their last ten competitive visits to Anfield, losing six, and they were truly dominated last season in a 1-1 draw, but they come to Anfield this season in good shape and look a slight touch of value to take all 3 points away from Merseyside. Roberto Mancini’s men didn’t look at their most organized against Southampton when staging a comeback to win 3-2 but they missed a stack of chances (David Silva himself should have scored at least once)and ended the game much the stronger despite Southampton’s several chances. It was the latest in a string of matches that have seen them carry a greater attacking threat than they did last season while also being more open at the back than usual. City will need to avoid a flat spot of similar kinds here but their class edge – they finished miles clear of Liverpool last season – gives them a fighting chance at odds of 6/4.

Sergio Aguero is out injured for four weeks which is a big blow, but Edin Dzeko (left) is a class act at his best who looked to have gained confidence from  a strong pre-season when scoring the equalizer (albeit an easy one to score) and those who long memories will not the strong run of form he went on at the beginning of last season, notably when scoring 4 at Tottenham after a strong start to the last campaign, while Carloz Tevez has been in blistering form since patching up with Roberto Mancini, looking transformed against Chelsea in the Community shield and then again when running the show against Southampton.

City are also missing Gareth Barry but their midfield still looks more than strong enough to win the battle with David Silva, Nasri, and Yaya Toure are more than strong enough to give City the edge while Jack Rodwell can surely only do better than his debut where he was at fault for Southampton’s second, so all the appeal looks to be with the Citizens to gain a long overdue Anfield win. Four recent meetings between the two have ended in draws and that could happen again, in which case the 1-1 correct score makes more appeal than under 2.5 goals.

Advice

2 pts Manchester City (6/4 general)

1 pt 1-1 Draw (6/1 general)