Nassau Stakes 2012

3.15 Goodwood

Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £104,914

Advice: 1 pt win The Fugue (4/1 general), 3 pts The Fugue to win without Nahrain and Izzi Top (6/4 Hills)

Clinical: Bettered her Listed hat – trick gained towards backend of last season when winning Epsom Group 3 on seasonal reappearance but unable to match that form when she was unplaced and always well beaten in the Windsor Forest Stakes; More needed here and not sure she wants 10 furlongs.

Izzi Top: Unbeaten in four runs since coming third in last year’s Oaks, winning two Group 3’s and  Group 2, and a Group 1, all in decisive fashion; Shown herself to be very versatile regarding tactics and ground at this trip and quick sprint that she used to win the Pretty Polly should be well evidenced here on this faster.

Lay Time: Very progressive last year when landing handicap and Listed event in clear cut style and not had chance to show his best so far this season, finding Epsom against her on her seasonal debut and then floundering in soft ground in Falmouth Stakes; Interesting contender here for all that this company expected to prove beyond her.

Nahrain: Took just 5 runs to become a Group 1 horse last season, getting better of Announce by just a head before then coming close second to Perfect Shirl in the Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf; Disappointing in Windsor Forest but that her seasonal debut and had a Group 1 penalty to anchor her that day, so expect better from her today.

Sea Of Heartbreak: Group 2 win, gained with smooth run from behind to nail three closely matched rivals on the line, and Grade 1 fifth in Canada, haven’t been matched so far in 2012, with soft ground curtailing her chances latest (although that in good 1m4f Group 2 v males) and Middleton (won by Izzi Top) proving too much for her on seasonal debut; Others make more appeal in this context.

Timepiece: Stole the Falmouth Stakes from the front at 1m last year and to her credit, did her best to prove that wasn’t a fluke when third to Goldikova and then close second to Announce in French Group 1’s afterwards; Not in same form this time around and others make more appeal here.

The Fugue: Only third in Oaks as favourite but that goes nowhere near to telling the story of the whole race, as she was bumped back to third last on the outside before Tattenham corner (off a slow gallop) before making up 10 lengths down the home straight, posting exceptional fractions (came down the home straight faster than Camelot did in Derby) to get as close as she did to winner Was in that race; Disappointing how far she was beaten in Ribblesdale next time but in hindsight that race came too soon after such hard effort at Epsom, while she would have enjoyed better ground (as shown by Musidora romp); Back to 1m2f on faster ground, standout chance.

Was: Repaid her sales price (1,200,000gns at Tatterstalls in October 2010) and more when winning Oaks (won well on sole 2011 start; not fully primed when beaten nearly 3l at Naas on reappearance); That form clearly high class and gives her big chance but had everything fall her way in Oaks with second keen and many others in field either unsuited by slow pace or interrupted by rough race in behind, while Seamie Heffernan gave exceptional ride; Only fourth in Irish Oaks last time but foolish to judge her on heavy ground (also bunched up late) and better chance today for all Oaks win still flatters her to a notable extent.

VERDICT: Izzi Top is a worthy favourite and unbeaten since finishing third in the Oaks last year, so it’s understandable that William Buick chose her out of John Gosden’s two big chances here. That alone should not make her double the price of THE FUGUE, who looked exceptional when winning the Musidora and even between then a desperately unlucky third in the Oaks. If one forgives a below par run in the Ribblesdale, where she was too tired to show her best after a slog at Epsom with the ground not allowing her to show her best. The 4/1 on her winning is generous, although not as generous as the 6/4 on her winning a race without the big two older horses. Nahrain should also take a hand in the finish, although The Fugue is the only one for me today.