Thursday, 30 August 2012

Vuelta A Espana - Stage 11 (Vilagarcía de Arousa -Mirador de Ézar)


The second week of the Vuelta began with a bang as Federik Kesiakoff put in a storming ride to take the one and only ITT but our joint fancy Joaquin Rodriguez used the course to his advantage and kept the red jersey in a storming ride to hold on by just a second in an incredible finish, with Alberto Contador just behind, Chris Froome down just 16 seconds in third and Alejandro Valverde still right there in fourth after a big effort in his own. With the rest of the top 10 someway off the pace, one of the big 4 looks set to take the Vuelta.

Today’s stage looks fairly innocuous on the face of it and you’d be right to think so but one thing changed that – the inclusion of the Cat.3 climb in the last 2 km which averages 14%, and with about 1 km to go there are reportedly sections of 17, 18 and even 29% - so today’s a real mixed bag and most likely one for the punchuers, of the break doesn’t stay away – there’s no chance of Saxo Tinkoff and Team Sky pulling back a break with Rodgriguez having shown his proficiency at these finishes on Sunday. That said, Purito is more than capable of doing it all on his own and his Katusha team look to be in great shape, so he’s sure to be raring to go, having kept the Red Jersey in the most unlikely of circumstances yesterday, and if his team can keep him close then 5/6 will look a great price.

Gilbert beats Rodriguez, Vuelta 2012, stage 9Purito himself was outsprinted by a back to form Philippe Gilbert on Sunday with some ease and with the Belgian seemingly back in the groove following a dreadful year, he makes a lot of appeal at 12/1 for this stage win. A world class all rounder at his best, he’s more than capable of making it over this climb for the stage win if still there and seems far too big at 12/1 to at least go close for a second win today with his confidence back.

Alberto Contador will have his supporters – he can take the red jersey today – and he’s sure to be a bit tempting at 6/1 for many although his attack on Stage 9 went flat and he makes more appeal for the HC finishes later on the week. For the same reason, Chris Froome is best left at 15/1,  as we all know he likes to make his own strong, sustained pace which works on the stiffer climbs above Cat.3.

Valverde is the kind of punchy rider who should be perfectly suited towards this finish and having limited his losses in cracking style in the TT yesterday, he now stands at just 59 seconds behind. With his Movistar team all well committed towards the cause he also makes appeal. Having come 6th on Stage 9, the climb today should suit him even more than that finish and he’s the last rider in the portfolio, although Paolo Tiralongo (33’s, 3rd in Stage 9), and Nicolas Roche (who may look to gain a few cheeky seconds ahead of the mountains) are two who make some appeal.

Advice

3 pts Joaquim Rodgriguez (5/6 Pinnacle)

1 pt Alejandro Valverde (8/1 general)

1 pt Phillipe Gilbert (12/1 general) 

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