Hindsight’s a wonderful thing. Before these Olympic games
LaShawnn Meritt, the defending Olympic Champion, had been unbeaten in six races
this year with his 44.12 SB from the U.S. trials leading the world and his 44.19,
the season's second fastest time, by more than three-tenths of a second.
Understandably he was 7-5 favourite heading into this event, but you could also
get 11-4 about the world champion Kirani James (seen swapping covers with the inspirational Oscar Pistorious) who was so impressive when
taking the title at Deagu.
Little did we know that LaShawnn Merit – who had suffered a
hamstring injury just under three weeks ago – would pull up and out of the
games in the first heat, which now leaves James as short as 1/3 to take gold
and 1/20 to medal. In his absence, value is near impossible to find with the
clear second best - World Junior champion Luguelin Santos – now just 4/1 for
gold and ¼ for a medal. In a two horse race, Santos is tempting here in a two
horse race - his 44.45 victory in Hengelo was a national record and he then
collected his first victory on the Diamond League circuit in New York, while he
goes into the final with the best time – although it’s a shame that he’s just ¼
for a medal from what would have been a far bigger price pre games.
Little did we know that LaShawnn Merit – who had suffered a
hamstring injury just under three weeks ago – would pull up and out of the
games in the first heat, which now leaves James as short as 1/3 to take gold
and 1/20 to medal. In his absence, value is near impossible to find with the
clear second best - World Junior champion Luguelin Santos – now just 4/1 for
gold and ¼ for a medal. In a two horse race, Santos is tempting here in a two
horse race - his 44.45 victory in Hengelo was a national record and he then
collected his first victory on the Diamond League circuit in New York, while he
goes into the final with the best time – although it’s a shame that he’s just ¼
for a medal from what would have been a far bigger price pre games.
If those two turn up on their best form then the markets
look right to suggest that the rest are racing for Bronze, and three men make
the most appeal in this market. Belgian siblings Kevin and Jonathan Borlee lie Fourth
(Kevin) and sixth (Jonathan) at 44.56 and 44.74 on this year's world list
respectively, yet Jonathan – presumably upon the basis that he beat Kirani
James in Monaco – has had most of the attention and is shorter than his brother
to win a medal despite Kevin once again going faster. Both men may be beaten by
fastest finalist Lalonde Gordon, who ran a time of 44.58 when looking to have
stacks in reserve at the end of the race. He’s 11/8 for a medal tonight, and
that may be the best value barring the front two, although Santos is tempting
to give James a real race at 4/1. Another bet to consider might well be Kevin Borlee
to beat Jonathan Borelee, which seems big at 11/10 with Sportingbet although Gordon has proven he can go faster than the pair of them.
Advice
2 pts Laldonde Gordon to medal (6/4 Hills)
3 pt Treble Kirani James (1/3 general), Sally Pearson (1-2
Ladbrokes), Ashton Eaton (1/5 general), David Rudisha (1/9 general) and Alison
Felix (1/2 general) (Returns £10.13 to £3)
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