Vuelta A Espana 2012

It’s one of the biggest Cycling events in what has been Cycling’s year – the Vuelta gives us the last three weeks of proper elite road racing this year before the World Road Race Championships – and for many reasons, it looks to be a race to savour fully this year.

Unlike recent editions, this year’s race is played out entirely in the northern half of the Iberian Peninsula – which means we’re tackling mountains, and big ones at that. A full 10 summit finishes with 36 categorized climbs should separate the men from the boys in a race that we didn’t really see during many of the middle stages of the Tour De France with Sky understandably riding to protect Wiggins, thus neutralising any chase likely to be made by the Peolton. With any luck most of the stage finishes should see the main contenders for the red jersey battling out finishes towards stages (see left), much like Stage 7 of the Tour De France where Froome beat Evans and Wiggins – looking at last year’s results you already see that the winner and runner up (Cobo and Froome) won three stages between them while established climbers such as Joaquin Rodriguez and Igor Anton were also amongst the winners. With just two races against the clock - the opening 16.5km evening team time trial through the streets of Pamplona (which is taking place at the time of writing) and a 39.5km ITT in stage 11 (even this boasts a tricky Cat.3 climb and technical descent) – this is sure to be decided stage by stage which just whets the appetite for the weeks ahead, especially stages 3 (first uphill finish), 4 (Cat.1 finish) and 20 (a summit finish on the Bola del Mundo, which sits at 2,252m on the penultimate day).

With these kind of routes it’s no wonder that the Vuelta is known as the revenge tour and big time odds on favourite Alberto Contador (below) – known as one of the greatest stage racers of the modern era, as well as being one of just 5 riders to win all three grand tours – certainly comes here as a man with a lot to prove and a lot to put right, with this being his first tour since the doping ban which has stripped him of not only his 2010 Tour De France title and 12 other wins, but also the first 6 months of the season, including 2 Grand Tours.

Whether or not you believe in his innocence or not, the addition of Contador to the race creates a tremendous sense of atmosphere and a superb betting frame to the race, with the Spaniard no better than 8/13 to take a second Vuelta on his return to the grand tour scene, his first since a rather limp showing in the Tour De France of 2011.

Contador looked to be in fairly decent shape when finishing fourth on his return to action at the recent Eneco Tour in Switzerland, finishing 55 seconds off Lars Boom in fourth overall, a good result considering that it was his return to racing and that the route wouldn’t have suited him as much as he liked – his seventh in a short distance ITT being the most we saw of him – and it’s likely that he’s going to be far fitter for this, as he showed when taking the time bonus on a relatively flat stage 2.

With Benjamin Noval, Daniel Navarro and Jesus Hernandez (who were at the 29-year-old's side when he achieved his victory at the 2010 Tour de France, while Contador also won the Tour of Italy in 2011 with Hernandez and Navarro) at his side it’s understandable that he should be such a short favourite, but over a 3 week grand tour the price is rancid –Paddy Power are offering 4/6 on him and that might appeal to big hitters, but he’s too short elsewhere.

Contador has already marked down his main rival as the explosive new talent in road racing, Team Sky’s Chris Froome. Second to Juan Jose Cobo in last year’s renewal by just 13 seconds and actually the faster person from start to finish, many believe that he would have won the race overall if not helping Bradley Wiggins, who at the time was struggling badly with the hills and dropping well out of contention. Only time bonuses prevented Froome from taking the overall win that year- remarkable considering that he had been struggling with illness throughought the year – and he’s gone from strength to strength since.

Second at this year’s Tour De France despite having a first half of the season wrecked by illness, Froome was far stronger in the mountains than Wiggins on video evidence and lost a minute with a flat tyre in the Prologue at the beginning of the stage, but he was still well clear of third placed Vincenzo Nibali back in third and won Stage 7 in explosive style, while he could easily have won Stage 17 had he not pulled Wiggins along the steep uphill finish. His two time trial seconds at the Tour De France – a third in the Olympics on a flat route was also a good sign - are an excellent sign for this, with a technical descent and a steep route in the one ITT sure to suit him right down to the ground, and a Stage win at the Vuelta already, he looks sure to throw down a massive challenge in his first grand Tour as team leader for Sky. Supporting him will be Sergio Henao, Richie Porte, Xabier Zandio, Danny Pate and Ben Swift, and with several of those established climbers at his side, he should prove immensely hard to beat. There’s a worry that he may suffer fatigue, having ridden the whole of the Tour and then given his all in the Olympics, but many riders with weaker credentials have ridden the two Grand tours with relative success and this is Froome’s best chance yet of a Tour win, so the 3/1 about him is fair, although if you don’t think anyone will be able to catch Alberto, he’s 8/11 in a market without Contador offered by Paddy Power and that might be the way to go, despite the short odds.

If one or both of them isn’t on form, then Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez is the man to take full advantage.  A three time top 10 finisher in this race as well as a winner of the KOM classification (2005), Rodriguez has been in sensational form this season, landing La Felche Wallonne, coming second in the Tour of the Basque Country, and then being edged out for the Giro D’Italia by 16 seconds when he faltered late on in the ending time trial, having led for ine days while winning two stages.  An expert climber, he’s sue to be targeting the red jersey strongly after being just edged out on yesterday’s opening mountain stage, has an excellent team (including 2 time winner Denis Menchov) to support him, he must go close here having also targeted this race solely since his Giro second. The 8/1 about him winning is tempting as well as the 3/1 without Contador, but evens on him making the podium seems to be a very solid bet with the course suiting him down to the ground, as he showed when he should have won Stage 3 yesterday but for letting up in the last 50 meters.

Alejandro Valverde pipped him in the last millimetres to take the stage win, rounding off what had been steady improvement from a lacklustre beginning to the year, and he now holds the red jersey by 18 seconds thanks to the time bonus scheme which rewards winners on a large scale. The Movistar man looked strong all of the way and is an excellent climber at his best, although over the course of the three weeks he looks sure to have the jersey taken off him. Look out for some bold attacks and stage wins though with him back to form.

Igor Anton was storming in front until a crash killed his chances in 2010 and has had a wretched time of it since, failing to make the top 15 of a Grand tour since then, but he has two stage wins to his credit and looked in decent shape yesterday, coming in just over 6 seconds behind. He’s a little better than his 47 seconds behind off the lead suggests – Eusaktel lost a fair bit of time in the time trial – and should be there or thereabouts as far as stage wins go over the week even if not upto contending for the GC.

The Dutch Duo of Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema both saw their Tour hopes derailed by serious crashes but have already started the Vuleta in positive fashion and need respecting. Both have keyed up for this challenged with decent results in lower category races, and both looked good when in the group that was 6 seconds behind the first four yesterday. Whether they’ve got it n them to challenge overall for the title is a different matter, but they should be well upto making the top 10. Juan Jose Cobo won last year as a complete outsider but wasn’t “first past the post” and has failed to keep the same form since then, something that he showed when losing 50 seconds on the first mountain stage yesterday, and no one else makes any reap appeal after that.

Advice – Red Jersey

1 pt Chris Froome (3/1 general)

2 pts each/way Joaquim Rodgriquez (8/1 Sportingbet)              

Advice – W/O Contador

2 pts Chris Froome w/o Contador (8/11 Paddy Power)

1 pt Joaquim Rodgriquez w/o Contador (3/1 Paddy Power)

Advice – Top 3

7 pts Joaquim Rodgriquez top 3 finish (evs general)