Real Madrid v Barcelona (Spanish Supercup 2012, 1st Leg)

Real Madrid have suffered their worst start to a La Liga season in taking just the one point from their opening two games – their worst ‘start’ since 1973 – and while there’s been an overreaction towards those admittedly poor performances, they may suffer yet again when Barcelona visit for the second leg of the Super Cup tonight. The Catalans have made a brilliant start towards life without Pep, winning their first three competitive games of the season in the same style – barring a good 2-1 scrap with Osasuna on Sunday which could have gone either way – that the club have always been, and become even more famous for in recent season.

In contrast Madrid have looked laboured and off pace in their two opening games despite the fact that they would feel aggrieved to have drawn with Valencia – 22 shots on target – and to Getafe, where Ozil blew as easy a chance as anyone will ever get to score and some poor defending was also to blame.

Mourinho’s side are – quite unusually for one of his outfits - looking to be in some trouble physically early on in the season, which may come from the fact that their players have had long hard summers (along with the physical style of football used by Mourinho), and there’s no telling that it’s had a negative effect on his start to the year. With 40 games to get and all four major trophies still up for grabs there’s no need to panic, but Madrid were totally outplayed by Barcelona for a solid 20 minutes in their 3-2 win and Only Angel Di Maria’s quick thinking, combined with Victor Valdes’s moment of lunacy, sees them in with a chance of taking the cup tonight.

Mouinhio’s men are hugely boosted by the return of Pepe towards the side while Barcelona lose Carlos Puyol to the cheekbone that he suffered at Osasuna at the weekend, but Villanova’s men have the momentum and personnel to do a job at the Bernabeu, where they are unbeaten in seven, and are worth a sporting wager tonight at the least. So too are the 3-1 and 2-1 correct scores, as both teams have scored in the last eight clasico, so the 11/4 that Barcelona win while conceding appeals a lot as a value option.

Quite why either team to be leading in at both half and full time are the two favourites in said market is strange. Draw/Barcelona at 11/2 and Real Madrid to be leading before falling back (as has happened in a few of the Bernabeu El Clasicos) is also of interest, with Draw/Barca making most appeal if the hosts’s aren’t as gung ho as usual. Look for odds of around evens on both teams to score in play if Mourhinio’s men are negative early on (also there could be big money in over 3.5 goals as well given that's occured in 5 of the last 7 clasicos) as he’s tried and failed to shut down these games before and generally opens up in the second half of the game.

Advice

3 pts Barcelona to win and concede (11/4 Coral)

1 pt 2-1 Barcelona (9/1 Coral)

1 pt 3-1 Barcelona (18/1 general)