It hasn’t gone quite to plan for Team GB at the Olympics but
it’s only now that the real chances have come and hopefully the men’s Individual
Time Trial should bring us one, if not, two medals today. Bradley Wiggins (seen below) made
himself a hero with his Tour De France win and it would really be time to start
getting worried if he couldn’t land the gold at long odds on around the board.
Wiggins – who will become the most successful Olympian in UK
history should he win gold – is now a best price of 4/9 following 9/2 pre tour,
and 10/11 immediately after his triumph, and that price while fair on recent
evidence, is impossible to back with any value although there’s a good reason
why he’s so short.
This year he’s unbeaten in long distance ITT’s, having won
the final TT stage of Paris-Nice to wrap up the overall win as well as stage
four of the Criterium de Dauphine, while thrashing the opposition in the two
long distance ITT’s, beating Cancellara by 57 seconds on the 41.4km course between
Arc-et-Senans to Besançon (similar in distance to London’s route), and then
beating team mate Chris Froome by 1 minute and 16 seconds on the last competitive
stage of the tour. A three time Olympic
gold medallist, all being well he should be able to get the Team GB ball rolling,
although all the value has gone and it’s a case of getting the flag out and sitting
fingers crossed on the sofa.
His two main rivals – and the real threats to him getting
gold – are two of the world’s best time trial greats, Fabian Cancelleara (the
defending Champion) and World Time Trial Champion Tony Martin. At their best both
would present serious medal contenders to Bradley Wiggins and a year ago they’ve
had been favourite ahead of Bradley Wiggins, but the Tour De France winner has
improved hugely since and they’ve had interrupted years to a point.
Serial World Championship medallist and now Champion Tony
Martin beat Bradley Wiggins by over a minute when winning in Copenhagen last
summer while also having Cancellara behind, and had a very similar year to Wiggins’s
this year, winning time trial stages in top races including the Tour de France,
Vuelta a Espana and Paris-Nice. This year he’s been pauged by injury, and broke
his scaphoid on the first road stage of the Tour de France, eventually
abandoning following the Stage 9 time trial, where he was 2:16 behind Wiggins, although
he had no chance at all given that he was riding with a broken hand and had a puncture.
Having left the tour to focus on his bid here, he worked hard in the road race
but saved himself by pulling out with 90km before the finish on The Mall and is
interesting here, as a medal is well up for grabs on his best form, although he’s
just 2/5 to do so and 11/10 without Wiggins – the 6/1 available is interesting
although there’s a worry he won’t be at his best.
Cancellara (left) withdrew from the Tour early to defend
this title – and for family reasons - and was looking strong at the end of the road
race before sadly crashing out, which was a sad sight to see. I don’t expect that
to hold him up today – he always gives 100% and wouldn’t miss this for the
world – and with the course sure to suit him down to the ground, he has to rate
a rock solid medal chance, and he might be a bigger threat then Martin, so the
standout 9/10 on him getting a medal seems to be a great opportunity. His record in this event is second to none and
he found the worse of the conditions in Copenhagen, slipping in the wet patches
to ruin his medal hopes.
If either of the big two fail, then Chris Froome, who has
improved nearly as much as Wiggins since recovering from illness earlier this
year to come runner up to Wiggins not only overall in the Tour De France but
twice in Stage races, and he has beaten him before, in Stage 10 of the Vuleta A
Espana when Martin come home infront. While he does like a tougher route – he excels
as a climber – he’s a big price in every market based on his form last month,
where he was miles ahead of Cancellara and a clear second in Stage 19. He’s 6/4
for a medal with Bwin and 15/4 without Wiggins at Sportingbet, and it’s hard to
argue with either.
Outside of those big four, young American Taylor Phinney
looks to be the springer. Edged out for bronze by Alexander Kristoff in the
bunch sprint that emerged from the Peloton behind Vinorkouv and Uran, he’s been
training for this event in order to increase his speed over a longer trip. A former track rider who was twice world
champion in the Individual Pursuit, he's also been U.S. national and world
Under-23 champion in the time trial, and won the Giro D’Italia prologue before
speoding three days in the lead. Should more than one of the main contenders
fail, he would be right there to pick up the pieces and at 3/1 for a medal of
any kind, he’s sure to attract a few experts. Sylvain Chavanel and Luis Leon Sanchez have
form in ITT’s – they are both national champions – but were too well held in
the Tour De France to think they’d make an impact here.
Advice
3 pts Fabian
Cancellara to medal (9/10 Bwin)
No comments:
Post a Comment