It’s not over until the fat lady sings but she’s on stage
and gathering her breath judged by the first two Ashes test and even the 4/6
about Australia making it 3-0 in this series is hard to argue with.
Before the second test in Adelaide I made a point of
mentioning how vastly improved England’s second test record is and how much
better their first innings score is on the second match of a test series,
especially abroad. Neither made any difference. I also made a point of
mentioning the issues of the much flatter Adelaide pitch likely to aid the
batsmen in their battle against the short ball and pace. It did for Australia
but while Australia scored 532 runs in their first innings and had the game
from won from then on, England were skittled for 172 and barely made 300 in
their next innings as Mitchell Johnson tore through their lineup once again in
the first innings before Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle made the most of
distracted and reeling English batsmen to sweep up the rest.
To keep the series alive, the three lions must now take at
least a draw from a ground here they have lost their last six – including a
heavy defeat, their only one of their last tour here and won once ever. It
looks to be an impossible order.
Australia have lost three of their last 6 Perth tests but two of those
came against a quality South Africa side with the bowling attack to exploit
conditions that their batsmen could handle; Not something that can be said of
an England side whose top runscorer has just 130 runs to his name in two tests.
if anything the first two tests have proven that records don’t wait for current
form and even the 5/2 about England doesn’t tempt – and neither does the 9/2
about the draw at a venue where only two matches in the last 16 have been drawn.
England were blown away at Adelaide but if anything look
even more vulnerable at the hardest, fastest, hottest venue of the 5 that will
be used through the whole series. Poor shot selection, poor shot timing, a
inexplicable tendency to go to the leg side and a regressive mindset saw them
collapse in the first innings in Adelaide but they were simply unable to handle
the pace and zip of the Gabba surface and on an even harder pitch it is hard to
see where a change will come from. In four innings England have made a top
total of 312 on failed to reach 200 on the other occasions, so Paddy Power’s
5/6 on them failing to read 310 runs looks worth taking.
Australia have also taken control of the first innings
through their bowling attack, and at the forefont of those efforts has been
Mitchell Johnson, transformed from the figure so many would mock for inaccuracy
of a lack of mental fortitude, terrorising England’s batsmen with in both mind
and body with bounce and pace that none of them have proven able to handle. He
has 17 wickets in just his two tests here, every batsman’s number, and 36
wickets in his last five games here including 9 against England in 2010. He is
a fair bet at 7/4 to be the best bowler in the first innings, but more
attractive to take more first innings wickets than James Anderson at evens with
Ladbrokes. Anderson has had the look of a tired man since the summer and has
been outbowled in three of the four innings so far this winter.
In what was a low scoring shootout at the Gabba, few batsmen
over the two days handled the conditions but Brad Haddin, in a rare streak of
form, made 94 and 53 and can make hay on Bet365’s performance market yet again.
The line for him of 98 once again looks very passable and he made 118 in his
only innings in Adelaide and looks worth backing on the top batsman market –
take a chance at the massive odds of 16/1 given England’s current woes.
Do the same for David Warner, who is in a rare run of form
and leads the way for most runs scored with 205, but back him getting 3 runs on
the batsman handicap. He handled the Gabba best of all when posting a brutal 124
in the second innings and was 83 not out when Australia declared in Adeliade.
Advice
1 pt Brad Haddin top first innings runscorer (16/1 888Sport)
1 pt David Warner +3 (7/1 Ladbrokes)
3 pts England to score less than 310 1st innings runs (5/6 Paddy Power)
3 pts Mitchell Johnson to take more wickets than James
Anderson in 1st innings (evs Ladbrokes)
3 pts Brad Haddin to earn 98 or more performance points (5/6
Bet365)
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