UEFA Super Cup 2012

The UEFA Super Cup between Atletico Madrid (winners of the Europa League) and Champions of Europe Chelsea should be a real cracker – both teams like to play attacking football and will be looking to build upon strong wins last time but there’s been a trend for the winner of the Champions League to get turned over in this competitor – only two of the last 8 Champions League winners  have won and Barcelona needed extra time to edge past Shaktar 1-0.

4 of the last 6 wins have been to nil and the last two have been 2-0, so splitting stakes on the pair seems to be a wise move for small interest.

Advice

1 pt 2-0 Chelsea (12/1 general)

1 pt 2-0 Atletico Madrid  (16/1 Ladbrokes)

Destchue Bank Championship 2012

The Ryder Cup team for Europe has been announced and we now move back into the big action of the Fed Ex Cup, with the top 100 from last week’s Barclays making it straight through to the Destchue Bank Championship this week in one of the biggest non major weeks of the year for US golfers at the least. Davis Love III will announce his four captain's picks on Tuesday, after the Deutsche Bank's Monday finish, while the top 70 on FedEx points advance to the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick in Indiana. Seven days ago we saw Nick Watney take the Barclays with one of our fancies – most of whom performed well before faltering late – clawing back some place money in the shape of Dustin Johnson (left), who looks to be a good bet to go two places better this time around and cement a solid claim for a place in  the team.

Johnson at the moment is not in line for an automatic cup place but would have sealed one already based on his form if he hadn’t suffered some nasty injuries this year to his knee and back. Despite that, he’s still kept up the streak of winning once every season on the US Tour – winning the St Jude’s classic in June – and after an understandable drop in form after that, he’s since roared back to form with a third place in the Barclays tournament last week, making steady ground late and giving the impression he was just getting a hot streak a little late in the day. The TPC Boston – a course which Dustin Johnson has finished fourth on in 2009 – plays easier than Bethpage on the face of things with a ranking of 37^th out of 51 on difficulty this year (Over the last five years, the average winning score is 18.4 under par) and giving plenty of fair greens, despite the toughing of the so often crucial last hole and it should suit the man who has claimed a title in each of the last two years down to the ground, so the 20/1 on offer makes a lot of appeal.

Jason Dufner didn’t even turn up at the Barclays tournament but was a runner up here in 2009 and has been steadily moving into some form this season. In his last 5 starts he’s tied fourth in the US Open, seventh in the PGA Championship, and seventh at Wyndham, which suggests that he could have gone under the radar this week despite the fact that he currently ranks 3^rd in Birdie Average and 4th in Scoring Average on the US Tour – a similarity that the last three winners of this tournament all had in common, as they all lay in the top 10 of birdie average going into the tournament.

Give another chance to Bubba Watson (left) who has been on amazing form all year in the Tour and did himself no discredit with a tenth in the Barclays Championship last week. Last year he led with a day to go last year but dropped back to 16th following a round of 74, and if keeping his concentration for the full 72 holes this time around then another win is surely within his reach. As said beforehand, he’s shown up at every big tournament this season and has performed without fail, and on a class edge it’s hard to see why he should be sixth in the betting.

The Fed Ex Cup often rewards course specialists who peak at the right time and few come to mind quicker than Steve Stricker for this task. His last six starts in Boston have produced a win and three other top-10s, which more than override his poor showing in the Barclays last week. Beofre that his US form read fifth at the John Deere, a tied second in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and a tied seventh in the USPGA, and his play-off record is nothing short of startling, so the 2009 winner deserved to be supported at a generous looking 28/1.

With the majority of the Americans done, it’s time to add three course specialists who have good tournament and season records. Every week without fail we support Bo Van Pelt (left) and once again an excellent case can be made for the big hitting American. TPC Boston has always suited those who are good from tee to green and make their own scoring opportunities, of which Van Pelt excels, and on a slightly easier course than Bethpage – the 18^th not permitting – he might be able to make hay, and at the least better his 25^th place finish last week. His seasonal form has been strong all year, he shared top spot for birdies holed last year when seventh (and an arguably better player now).

Last but not least it’s time to get behind two classy Australians with good course records. Geoff Ogilvy has been in steady form of late with 10 top 30 finishes in his last 13 events (three top-20 finishes in his last four starts but his exceptional course record – fifth in 2003, sixth in 2007, seventh in 2009, and runner up in 2010) means he must be added to the portfolio, if not for the outrights with tight bookies who won’t go 6 places, then in the rest of the world category where 9/1 is freely available.

Fellow Australian Adam Scott may only ever be known for his meltdown in the Open on the last day but that would be slight on an incredibly talented golfer – who one day should break his major duck – who has had an excellent campaign at the very highest level, coming 15^th in the US Open, runner up and Lytham, and 11^th in the USPGA when his confidence was surely to have been at his lowest ebb after that Sunday. Winner here in 2003, runner up next year, and a top eight finisher in the last two years, he looks well worth supporting in a bid for his bumper pot and in the Rest Of The World Category. Of the others, Woods and McIlroy are too short once again despite their class, Westwood and Rose are the two Englishmen I’ve looked at most, and a return to form for Keegan Bradley would be a danger to all, but our team will do and contains course specialists a plenty at more attractive prices.

Advice

1 pt Dustin Johnson (18/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Jason Dufner (20/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Bubba Watson (25/1 general)

1 pt each/way Steve Stricker (28/1 Boylesports, 22/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Bo Van Pelt (45/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Geoff Ogilvy (40/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Adam Scott (22/1 Paddy Power)

Advice - Rest Of The World

1 pt each/way Adam Scott (11/2 Bet365)

1 pt each/way Geoff Ogilvy (9/1 general) 

Vuelta A Espana - Stage 12 (Vilagarcía - Mirador de Ezaro)

The 2012 Vuelta A Espana hasn’t failed to disappoint so far and yesterday’s explosive finish was a terrific spectacle which put one of our joint fancies – Joaquin Rodriguez  - in pole position for the race, while our second best Chris Froome lost 22 seconds going up the incredible steeply but punchy and sharp Cat.3 finish. Purito has a great chance of preventing a dream return to form for Alberto Contador in Madrid later and while Froome was disappointing today, it may be that he likes a far harder climb where a more gradual tempo is steadily raised – like La Planche in the Tour De France – which exposes fatigued legs far more. The three HC finishes should suit him better than yesterday, although it may be that after a long, hard and extremely successful year, he’s just feeling the pinch a bit.

Today’s stage has a few lumps and bumps but it’s a flat finish which gives John Degenkolb a great chance at a glorious fifth stage win of this Vuelta. The young German hotshot hasn’t been beaten in a bunch sprint so far this year and is fast building a reputation for himself as a top class sprinter here which may well only be emboldened  after today’s finish. There’s always the chance of a break staying away but Argos Shimano are sure to try their best to pull it back and Radioshack, Orica Greenedge and even Sky may lend a hand towards catching any escapees – as has happened on the majority of stages so far.

Competition behind Degenkolb has been fierce but if Nacer Bouhanni isn’t too badly affected by yesterday’s crash then the French Road Racing Champion may well be best of the rest once again. He’s taken some time to get upto speed on this tour but a couple of fourths and a second suggest he’s in really good heart and is steadily learning the trade. His continental wins suggest that he is a richly talented sprinter who will take a grand tour stage in a matter of time and he’s already expressed his desire to take a stage win, claiming that “he came here with the goal of winning a stage,”, so the 8/1 looks to be a solid each/way wager.

Bennati, Viviani, Swift, Meersman and Davies are all valid contenders, although they’ve been regularly beaten by Degenkolb and seem to take turns being the main challenger, while Bohanni is rapidly progressive, all of this without a leadout train.

Advice

5 pts John Degenkolb (13/10 Pinnacle)

1 pt each/way Nacer Bouhanni (8/1 general) 

Vuelta A Espana - Stage 11 (Vilagarcía de Arousa -Mirador de Ézar)

The second week of the Vuelta began with a bang as Federik Kesiakoff put in a storming ride to take the one and only ITT but our joint fancy Joaquin Rodriguez used the course to his advantage and kept the red jersey in a storming ride to hold on by just a second in an incredible finish, with Alberto Contador just behind, Chris Froome down just 16 seconds in third and Alejandro Valverde still right there in fourth after a big effort in his own. With the rest of the top 10 someway off the pace, one of the big 4 looks set to take the Vuelta.

Today’s stage looks fairly innocuous on the face of it and you’d be right to think so but one thing changed that – the inclusion of the Cat.3 climb in the last 2 km which averages 14%, and with about 1 km to go there are reportedly sections of 17, 18 and even 29% - so today’s a real mixed bag and most likely one for the punchuers, of the break doesn’t stay away – there’s no chance of Saxo Tinkoff and Team Sky pulling back a break with Rodgriguez having shown his proficiency at these finishes on Sunday. That said, Purito is more than capable of doing it all on his own and his Katusha team look to be in great shape, so he’s sure to be raring to go, having kept the Red Jersey in the most unlikely of circumstances yesterday, and if his team can keep him close then 5/6 will look a great price.

Purito himself was outsprinted by a back to form Philippe Gilbert on Sunday with some ease and with the Belgian seemingly back in the groove following a dreadful year, he makes a lot of appeal at 12/1 for this stage win. A world class all rounder at his best, he’s more than capable of making it over this climb for the stage win if still there and seems far too big at 12/1 to at least go close for a second win today with his confidence back.

Alberto Contador will have his supporters – he can take the red jersey today – and he’s sure to be a bit tempting at 6/1 for many although his attack on Stage 9 went flat and he makes more appeal for the HC finishes later on the week. For the same reason, Chris Froome is best left at 15/1,  as we all know he likes to make his own strong, sustained pace which works on the stiffer climbs above Cat.3.

Valverde is the kind of punchy rider who should be perfectly suited towards this finish and having limited his losses in cracking style in the TT yesterday, he now stands at just 59 seconds behind. With his Movistar team all well committed towards the cause he also makes appeal. Having come 6^th on Stage 9, the climb today should suit him even more than that finish and he’s the last rider in the portfolio, although Paolo Tiralongo (33’s, 3^rd in Stage 9), and Nicolas Roche (who may look to gain a few cheeky seconds ahead of the mountains) are two who make some appeal.

Advice

3 pts Joaquim Rodgriguez (5/6 Pinnacle)

1 pt Alejandro Valverde (8/1 general)

1 pt Phillipe Gilbert (12/1 general) 

Real Madrid v Barcelona (Spanish Supercup 2012, 1st Leg)

Real Madrid have suffered their worst start to a La Liga season in taking just the one point from their opening two games – their worst ‘start’ since 1973 – and while there’s been an overreaction towards those admittedly poor performances, they may suffer yet again when Barcelona visit for the second leg of the Super Cup tonight. The Catalans have made a brilliant start towards life without Pep, winning their first three competitive games of the season in the same style – barring a good 2-1 scrap with Osasuna on Sunday which could have gone either way – that the club have always been, and become even more famous for in recent season.

In contrast Madrid have looked laboured and off pace in their two opening games despite the fact that they would feel aggrieved to have drawn with Valencia – 22 shots on target – and to Getafe, where Ozil blew as easy a chance as anyone will ever get to score and some poor defending was also to blame.

Mourinho’s side are – quite unusually for one of his outfits - looking to be in some trouble physically early on in the season, which may come from the fact that their players have had long hard summers (along with the physical style of football used by Mourinho), and there’s no telling that it’s had a negative effect on his start to the year. With 40 games to get and all four major trophies still up for grabs there’s no need to panic, but Madrid were totally outplayed by Barcelona for a solid 20 minutes in their 3-2 win and Only Angel Di Maria’s quick thinking, combined with Victor Valdes’s moment of lunacy, sees them in with a chance of taking the cup tonight.

Mouinhio’s men are hugely boosted by the return of Pepe towards the side while Barcelona lose Carlos Puyol to the cheekbone that he suffered at Osasuna at the weekend, but Villanova’s men have the momentum and personnel to do a job at the Bernabeu, where they are unbeaten in seven, and are worth a sporting wager tonight at the least. So too are the 3-1 and 2-1 correct scores, as both teams have scored in the last eight clasico, so the 11/4 that Barcelona win while conceding appeals a lot as a value option.

Quite why either team to be leading in at both half and full time are the two favourites in said market is strange. Draw/Barcelona at 11/2 and Real Madrid to be leading before falling back (as has happened in a few of the Bernabeu El Clasicos) is also of interest, with Draw/Barca making most appeal if the hosts’s aren’t as gung ho as usual. Look for odds of around evens on both teams to score in play if Mourhinio’s men are negative early on (also there could be big money in over 3.5 goals as well given that's occured in 5 of the last 7 clasicos) as he’s tried and failed to shut down these games before and generally opens up in the second half of the game.

Advice

3 pts Barcelona to win and concede (11/4 Coral)

1 pt 2-1 Barcelona (9/1 Coral)

1 pt 3-1 Barcelona (18/1 general) 

Celtic v Helsingborgs

With Rangers in division three and the National side flopping you could be forgiven for taking a good whack at Scottish football but Celtic are in a great position to give the game a much needed boost when they take on Helsingborgs in the second leg of their Champions League qualifier tonight. With a 2-0 lead from the first leg, Neil Lennon’s side  are understandably just 1/100 to qualify and can do that by drawing or even losing by a goal.

Neil Lennon’s men can count their lucky stars that they come back to Scotland in front, let alone holding a 2-0 lead, but Age Hariede’s side have only themselves to blame for the deficit. They had 5 gilt edged chances in just the first half alone to go ahead but somehow contrived to miss all of them and even in the second half they were truly dominant and unlucky not to score at least twice. If they can get their shooting boots on them some might find 6/1 about them attractive but there’s a feeling that their chance might have gone – Celtic have lost just 5 of their last 27 at Parkhead – and in any case they’ve lost their last three games on the bounce.

With Thomas Rogne (ankle), Scott Brown (groin), Georgios Samaras (thigh) and Kris Commons (ankle) all being unfit for the game Celtic themselves are hardly coupon material at just 1/2 for a win though, and anyone wanting to side with the home side should be looking close at the Draw/Celtic double results. Celtic have taken some time to get into games this season, reflected in the three Draw/Celtic results that have taken place in the first three games of this season - Celtic have scored 9 goals in the second half this season out of 12. Helsingborgs are sure to go all out for the win but that could leave gaps later on and if the Bhoys can keep it tight in the first half the game could be decided after the break.

Advice

1 pt Draw/Celtic (15/4 Bet Victor)

2 pts second half highest scoring (6/5 Coral) 

Vuelta a Espana - Stage 11 (Cambados - Pontevedra)

The race for the Red Jersey in the Vuelta A Espana has been on the go since Stage 3 but today is the start of the race defining week with three (stages 15, 16 and 20) which finish on hors catégorie-rated ascents coming up soon. At the moment one of our two fancies, Joaquim Rodriguez, leads with a 50 second gap but he is expected to lose his lead and quite a significant amount of time in the time trial. Despite his best and most valiant efforts, Rodriguez, a noted struggler in time trials, lost the Giro (ironically the only one not to have feature an ITT with a climb in since 2007) on the last stage to Ryder Hesjedal in a ITT having held a 31 second advantage and will all but lose his lead today, although there is more in his favour than previously.

Firstly – as explained later – today’s course is far more testing than most time trials, with a Cat 3 climb and decent adding to a hugely technical course that should allow him to retain some ground upon the other main contenders, and secondly he of course has the stages to make up ground later on in the week. He course he lost the Giro on was bone flat barring the turns, which is vastly different to today’s stage, which is the most challenging ITT in recent Vuelta history.

In three of the last four years the course has been flat and rolling, where TT experts have used massive gears to destroy the field. The inclusion of the Cat 3 Alto de Monte Castrove, a 10km ascent at 4.4%, will ensure that does not take place again and is sure to level the playing field a bit for the climbers as well. Another cat amongst the pigeons is the extremely technical nature of the course. With several urban areas – the 1^st 13 km are constantly turning and include a selection of roundabouts, traffic passes and extremely sharp turns, while many of the same features will be used for the the streets of Pontevedra during the last 2KM – along with the twisting, turning, woodland descent – all with poorer roads - that drops for 10km after the Alto De Monte Castrove, along with the fast kick up straight afterwards.

World Champion Tony Martin has had a rollercoaster year but after a dreadful Tour De France – where he broke his wrist, and had punctures on two of the three ITT’s during the race - bounced right back to form with an Olympic silver medal in London where he beat Chris Froome convcingly, much like he did when winning the ITT last year- his second in a breakaway to Simon Clarke on Stage 4 also bodes very well. The difference between those two courses and this one is that they were much flatter than today’s stage and benefited those who have incredibly high average speeds – hence Bradley Wiggins’s dominating victories. Today’s course is far more likely to suit Froome, who has improved on his time trialling greatly over the past year and a half than Martin, and while Stan James have it right in making the pair joint favourites, preference would be for the team Sky man.

Froome will be wanting to put time into Alberto Contador – still many people’s favourite for the Vuelta - on this stage although if the Spaniard is on top form, that will be a hard task. Contador has put in some of the biggest efforts of his life to all but win grand tours on time trials, notably his 2011 Giro win (stripped from him) and his 2009 Tour De France win, where he beat Fabian Cancellara by 3 seconds to nail a second tour win (as seen left). Some were worried for his condition after struggling on the punchy mountain top stage 6 finish but he’s since put those doubts to bed and should take some beating. In preparation for this, he’s ridden the course eight times beforehand so will know it like the back of his hand, and at 11/4 – nearly double the price of Froome and Martin – he has to be the bet today to take the red jersey.

Of the others, nobody makes any real appeal barring Garmin’s young prospect Andrew Talansky, who was just a second behind Bradley Wiggins in the Tour Of Romandie’s final ITT. The American has been crusing so far through the race but should give this his all and is an interesting contender. Of the top ten, both Rabobank riders should hold their spots and it’ll be interesting to see how Ireland’s Nicolas Roche – 22^nd in Stage 9 of the Tour De France – gets on with a number of the better TT’ers absent and the course sure to suit an attack for him later in the tour, while Valverde should be aiming to put some time into Rodriguez despite his less than perfect TT technique as well.

Advice

1 pt Alberto Contador (11/4 Stan James)

Vuelta a Espana - Stage 10 ( Ponteareas to Sanxenxo)

The second week of the Vuelta a Espana is superbly poised but the fireworks between the big four are set to come tomorrow with the race’s one and only time trial event on Wednesday and  many frighteningly high summit finishes still to come in weeks two and three.  Today’s stage is little more than a cruise down to Sanxenxo with the highest point being 414m, and it should finish in a bunch sprint for the fourth time so far. John Degenkolb (left) has won the other three, and rates an excellent bet to make it sprint win number four with his Argos Shimano team performing perfectly and Degenkolb himself having shown the power to win regardless of where he seems to be dropped out.  This success isn’t a new feeling for Degenkolb; The young German has already won two stages at the 2012 Quatre Jours de Dunkerque, 1 at the Tour Of Poland and two at the Tour De Picardie just this year, but even so his form this year has been incredible and with today’s stage holding no fears he should be able to win again, with his Argos Shimano team sure to put in a few shifts to reel in a potential break late on in the knowledge their man can finish the job.  At evens he rates a banker bet.

The other sprinters have been there or thereabouts and a couple – notably Daniele Bennati – have given him a real scare when needed, but have all failed to beat Degenkolb when it matters at the end. That doesn’t mean that they should be discounted though, and Allan Davis – the only person to make the three more than once so far in a bunch sprint – makes a tremendous amount of appeal to beat Team Sky’s Ben Swift in a match bet. Swift has yet to beat Davis in three attempts so far, notably despite being led out in a massive train at the Aragon Motor Circuit. Swift is a promising young sprinter who should improve a lot over the next couple of years but right now he ‘s struggled for timing – going too early on a number of occasions – and has done no better than tenth in his last two sprints.

Of the others, Nacer Bouhanni – one of the youngest National Road Race Champions in recent history – catches the eye. He’s been steadily improving throughought the year so far a couple of near misses at the recent Vuelta a Burgos suggest so – and at 11/1 he makes some each/way appeal.

Advice

3 pts John Degenkolb (evs Stan James)

4 pts Allan Davis to beat Ben Swift (11/10 Sportingbet)

1 pt each/way Nacer Bouhanni (11/1 Hills) 

Vuelta A Espana - Stage 9 (Andorra > Barcelona)

This year’s Vuelta A Espana has already been described by some as even more exciting than the whole of the Tour De France and while that may be an unfair dig, it’s certainly provided us with plenty of thrills and spills, not least the spectacular summit finish which saw Chris Froome in trouble for the first time since the Tour De France. Our joint outright pick of Joaquim Rodriquez still leads by 33 seconds to Froome, which is a good position to be going into. The next big test is the ITT on Wednesday, which is a great opportunity for Froome to get back into the thick of things on a course that should realy suit with a Category 3 climb, all of this after a rest day.

Today’s stage looks set to provide none of the fireworks that we’ve seen so far due to the peculiar nature of a course that leaves Andorra with a Category 3 climb and ends in Barcelona’s Olympic stadium after the Alto de Montjuic - a 1 kilometre climb that has an average gradient of 8.1%. It has breakway written all over it unless the sprinters teams can keep them in touch. When the Tour De France came here in 2009 a huge break was established but caught just in time and if it’s to be a bunch sprint then the same’s likely to happen again.

Relatively speaking, it could be like either Stage 15 (where the break had 11 minutes on the Peloton and Pierrick Federigo outsprinted Christan Vandevelde with ease) or Stage 18 of this year’s Tour De France (where Mark Cavendish was carried over the climb to get a fantastic win as repayment for the efforts of others).

Should the latter situation arrive there would be only one man I’d really look to for a stage win – John Degenkolb, who has won three bunch sprints already and is clearly much the best sprinter on this tour. 4/1 would be massive if he’s delivered anywhere near close to the line, although there’s a worry that this uphill finish could blunt his speed.

The one man who this stage is really set up for is Philppe Gilbert (left). If this had been a year ago, then he’d be favourite and a strong one at that, but illness and injury along with quite a few crashes have wrecked his season. When at the height of his powers, Gilbert took a remarkable 18 wins last year and ended the year the world’s best cyclist, but has since dropped to 64^th in the world. However he’s been showing steady improvement though this year’s Tour De France, coming 8^th and 4^th on Stages 13 and 14 respectively, and he’s gotten into a break already this year, on Stage 3. A good climber with a powerful sprint strong enough for an uphill finish, at 8/1 he makes a lot of appeal.

Of the others, Simon Clarke – who got into the break and stayed there to take stage 3 – and Pim Lighart – who comes from a breakaway team and hasn’t been seen much, so presumably is sure to be fresh enough for an attack – also make appeal, with more preference for the former. 

Advice

1 pt John Degenkolb (4/1 Stan James)

1 pt Phillipe Gilbert (8/1 Stan James)

1 pt Simon Clarke (33/1 Stan James) 

European Focus - Sunday 26th August 2012

Serie A kicks off properly today but there looks to be a dearth of real value on offer with the class teams all on offer at short prices. Of particular interests are the seasonal kicks offs of Zenek Zedman’s Roma (who are just 9/20) against Catania and Inter’s trip to Pescara. Both should win but it’s a watching brief to see how the squads are shaping up, while our second title tips Napoli go on the road to Palermo in a game that should tell us a fair amount about how they’ve progressed since the Supercup.

 

The real value to be had comes in Spain where Barcelona and Real Madrid face derbies after another tremendous El Clasico in midweek.

Madrid are winless in 2 competitive games this season but they were unlucky not to beat Valencia – they had 22 shots on goal and should have scored at least once more – and looked much more threatening going forward against Barca in midweek with the limited opportunities they had. Mourinho’s men have won seven in a row against Getafe and also won 15 in a row against other teams from the Spanish capital, so a price of evens for them to score in both halves – as they did last season 23 times when they won 15 of 17 on the road – makes a lot of appeal.

Tito Villanova’s side have made an excellent start to life under their new manager and should be capable of doing the same against Osasuna, although they get the smaller stakes given the home side’s strong record against them -  have only lost two of their last seven league games at home to Barcelona (D3 L2).

Advice

2 pts Real Madrid to score in both halves (evs Ladbrokes)

1 pt Barcelona to score in both halves (5/6 Totesport) 

Premiership 2012 - 13; Liverpool v Manchester City

Brendan Rogers’s Liverpool reign got off to a poor start when they were beaten 3-0 by West Brom and things can only get more difficult for him when champions Manchester City travel to Anfield this afternoon.

Liverpool were not as bad as the scoreline suggests at the Hawthorns – Luis Suarez wasted numerous chances and should have given his side the lead, while two of the three penalties were very questionable – but those were the same faults as last season and there’s been a  worrying lack of cutting edge about them for well over a year now. The loss of Daniel Agger for this game is also a crushing blow especially at this time given how badly Liverpool were exposed last week on the break, and the long and short of it is that Liverpool have picked up just 18 points in 20 Premier League games in 2012, and the reds had the worst chance conversion rate in the top flight in 2011/12, scoring with just 9% of their attempts.

The Citizens haven’t won any of their last ten competitive visits to Anfield, losing six, and they were truly dominated last season in a 1-1 draw, but they come to Anfield this season in good shape and look a slight touch of value to take all 3 points away from Merseyside. Roberto Mancini’s men didn’t look at their most organized against Southampton when staging a comeback to win 3-2 but they missed a stack of chances (David Silva himself should have scored at least once)and ended the game much the stronger despite Southampton’s several chances. It was the latest in a string of matches that have seen them carry a greater attacking threat than they did last season while also being more open at the back than usual. City will need to avoid a flat spot of similar kinds here but their class edge – they finished miles clear of Liverpool last season – gives them a fighting chance at odds of 6/4.

Sergio Aguero is out injured for four weeks which is a big blow, but Edin Dzeko (left) is a class act at his best who looked to have gained confidence from  a strong pre-season when scoring the equalizer (albeit an easy one to score) and those who long memories will not the strong run of form he went on at the beginning of last season, notably when scoring 4 at Tottenham after a strong start to the last campaign, while Carloz Tevez has been in blistering form since patching up with Roberto Mancini, looking transformed against Chelsea in the Community shield and then again when running the show against Southampton.

City are also missing Gareth Barry but their midfield still looks more than strong enough to win the battle with David Silva, Nasri, and Yaya Toure are more than strong enough to give City the edge while Jack Rodwell can surely only do better than his debut where he was at fault for Southampton’s second, so all the appeal looks to be with the Citizens to gain a long overdue Anfield win. Four recent meetings between the two have ended in draws and that could happen again, in which case the 1-1 correct score makes more appeal than under 2.5 goals.

Advice

2 pts Manchester City (6/4 general)

1 pt 1-1 Draw (6/1 general) 

Serie A - Top Scorer Preview 2012-13

Following the departure of Zalatan Ibrahimovic to PSG the race for the top scorer in Italy is much more open than usual but it might be all set up for one of the most successful strikers of recent years in Inter’s Diego Milito (pictured), who was second with 24 goals last year despite Inter’s turbulent season and seems even better set to repeat that feat once again this season.

Inter spent a large amount of last season without their creative talisman and maestro Wesley Sneijder but he had a storming Euro 2012 when he looked right back to his best, albeit in just 3 games as Holland crashed out at the Group stages. Inter are hugely reliant on the Dutchman but with him back they can look forward to good things this season and the new arrivals this season look sure to help him in every way possible. Antonio Cassano was instrumental towards Ibrhaimovic’s tally, assisting more than any AC Milan player last season despite his well-documented health problems, and it’s not hard to thin he can do the same for Milito, while Guarin and Pierera are solid additions from a creative Porto sides known for its attacking prowess. All in all, Miltio looks to have a standout chance at 9/1.

Edison Cavani is staying at Napoli, who have no Champions League football to distract them, and should go well again although Lavezzi was a big help for him and while Vargas and Insgine are both talents, they might be more scorers than helpers and he’s just swerved at 7/1. Atonio Di Natale has always been there or thereabouts in the past few years but the loss of Isla and Asamoah might take away the service he’s been used to and others make more appeal. Matia Destro might well thrive upon Zeman’s new aggressive management style at Roma and is hugely well regarded in Italy, so has to be of some interest at 14/1 with the market much more open than usual. Zeman has said that he expects his side to be challenging for the title this year in which case Matri will be at the forefront of the scoring charts.

Two other dark horses to serious consider would be Alessandro Matri and Stefan Jovetic. Matri scored a paltry 10 goals last season and was largely expected to play second fiddle to a world class talent but Juve haven’t added another striker and he might make the best of his second season as the main man. The additions of Mauricio Isla and Kawadwo Asamoah increase Juve’s running threat hugely and with those two on either side of a midfield which has Andrea Pirlo, he may be able to launch himself into contention.  Jovetic scored 14 last season but is still fairly raw at 22 and Fiorentina were poor last season. New manager Vincenzo Montella has brought in David Pizzaro and Albeto Aquilani, which should improve the service that he gets tenfold, and he’s a very interesting shout at what looks like a large 28/1.

Advice

2 pts each/way Diego Milito (9/1 general)

1 pt each/way Stefan Jovetic (28/1 general) 

Serie A - Season Preview 2012-13

What’s not to like about a price of 6/5 for a team that won the League unbeaten last year, let in just 20 goals all season, and have arguably strengthened while their rivals – including the 4 point runners up, who have actually lost their top scorer and best centre back – are arguably weaker and were all in significant arrears at the end of last season?

Conte's suspension is bad news for Juventus 

Not only have Juve kept the same squad that took them towards last season’s title, but in mind of a serious challenge they’ve signed excellently over the summer. The arrival of Udinese startlets Mauricio Isla and Kwadwo Asamoah is a huge boost for them not only in terms of potential goals but also the quality of service in attack that Alessandro Matri – who scored just 10 goals last season – needs to establish himself fully as a top level Serie A Striker, while both of them are capable of scoring themselves (the players are also very versatile as well) if not used in unlocking defences. They scored 3 goals each last year but played a huge part in Atonio Di Natale’s 23 goal tally and without them Udinese lost 11 games last year compared to just 3 with them. It’s a big statement of intent from the Bianocnieri, who startlingly have the potential to improve upon a staggering 15 draws last year.

The search for a big name striker looks set to be a fruitless one, but hopefully Matri can step up on his 10 goals last year with the new support from midfield and the return of Sebastian Giovinco from Parma, adds extra bite to keep the defensive side of things tight. I’m not sold on the arrival of Lucio from Inter but he at least provides some cover if needed and Buffon is one of the world’s best keepers, while Paul Pogba must have been highly regarded by Sir Alex Ferguson even if for his attitude issues. Of course the rest of the team is the same outfit that went unbeaten last season and then provided the core of the Italy side that found only Spain too good at Euro 2012, including Marchisio, Givoinco, Bonuccio, Barzagilhi, Chiellini and the irrepressible Andrea Pirlo, who has looked as good as ever during Euro 2012.

Plenty of people will have availed themselves towards the 6/5 about Juventus and that would be an fantastic bet were it not for one thing; Antonio Conte being handed a ten-month ban for failing to report match-fixing alleged to have taken place during his spell in charge of Siena. Conte was a huge part in their rejuvenation last season – they had finished seventh before romping to the title – and is sure to be missed badly, and to compound that, assistant Angelio Alessio received an eight-month sanction relating to the same situation and Cristian Stellini also resigned after agreeing to a 30 month suspension. Massimo Carrera has seen the side to a 4-2 extra time win over Napoli in the Coppa Italia but it remains to be seen how he himself handles not only the challenge of retaining the title but also a Champions League challenge.

It could be that Juventus are the kind of side that handle themselves well and that their class could out, but if football history has ever thought us anything it’s that managers can make the difference between winning and losing titles, and as much as I may come to regret this in 9 or so months, I can’t be getting seriously involved pre-season. A couple of weeks, if the price still remains, it may well be worth tucking in fully after seeing how they’ve shaped up.

Milan were just 4 points behind Juventus but have suffered serious losses pre-season and can expect to finish further behind. A slightly ageing side was always going to need a shake-up but the exodus of Gennaro Gatuso, Filippo Inzaghi, Mark van Bommel Alessandro Nesta and Gianluca Zambrotta all in one go seems to be a bit much and there’s got to be a worry that their experience will be missed badly not only on the pitch but in the dressing room and also behind the scenes.

The real crushing failure for them has to be the departure of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Thiago Silva both to Paris Saint-Germain. The actual sale of such talent underlines the money issues that the club is suffering but the reality is that the best forward and centre back in Serie A have both left the club and without them some struggle to foresee them making European football and it’s hard to disagree with that. Ibrahimovic’s 28 goals were the most of anyone in the division last year while Silva is generally regarded as one of the world’s best centre backs (something he underlined at the Olympics when being the only one of Brazil’s back four to have a decent tournament) and the failure to replace both sends a death knell.

Ibrahimovic is not the only quality player that AC have in attack but the loss of Antionio Cassano – more on him later – is a big blow while Robiniho blows hot and cold in terms of goalscoring as well as general performance and the most talented forward left at the club Alexandre Pato, is sadly still as fragile as ever, being set for at least three weeks out after suffering an adductor muscle tear. It’s a tremendous shame to see such a brilliant player on the sidelines but he can’t be trusted to be kept fit – going back to 2010 he’s missed 405 days of action and was absent for 30 games last year – and his absence is another crushing blow.

Stephen El Shaaarawy and Anotnio Norcerino are decent players in their own right and with the help for Kevin Prince Boateng, should step up a bit to help goalscoring duties, but the loss of Ibrahimovic looks too big to offset. Replacements  Giampaolo Pazzini, Kevin Constant, Cristián Zapata, Francesco Acerbi are all nothing on Riccardo Montlivo, who is a good bit of business at a time they needed it, but on balance Milan are extremely opposable.

Rivals Inter had a truly horrendous season last year when 6^th and 26 points off the pace but there are many good reasons why they never threatened – quite literally - last season. They went through three managerial changes but surely the most damaging was Gian Piero Gasperini’s horrendous opening spell which saw them try and play a 3-4-3 with an ageing side, which ended any hopes they had of trying to make an impact on the season.

Caludio Ranieri’s appointment looks to have turned things around but he couldn’t get a run going either, being sacked after just 1 win in 10 league games, and in the end it was entrusted to 36 year old Andrea Stramacconi to bring home the season with just two losses and a Derby win over AC Milan that decided the title’s destination early.

The managerial instability which cost them so badly last season came about as a result of, and was was compounded by, an ageing squad which didn’t have the tools to compete in defence against the best teams and left them vulnerable going back.

The likes of Lucio, Walter Samuel, Christian Chivu and Maicon were all a step or two slower than a year or two and were always the weak point whenever Inter got pressured, while no team in the 5 above them let in more goals than their 55 – infact few teams in Serie A did. They are also capable of improving upon a tally of just 58 scores. It was a tally which compared favourably with the tight bunch from 3^rd to eighth last year but one which has significant potential for improvement following an impressive raft of new signings in attack this year.

 

Amongst just some of the charges Inter have picked up are super shotstopper Samir Handanovic from Udinese, defender Matias Silvestre, wingback Álvaro Periera, midfielders Walter Gargano, Gaby Mudingayi, and Freddy Guarin, plus Rodrigo Palacio, Antonio Cassano from Milan Not many of these names would have the star appeal of Juve’s additions, but Palacio scored 19 times for Genoa last year despite the club nearly going down, Handovic’s Udinese side let in just 35 goals last year, Pierara and Guarin (above) were two of the outstanding players for a strong Porto side, and Matias Silvestre was part of the Catania side that that third consecutive record points total for the Sicilian club before impressing last year.

The brilliance in getting £7m for Antonio Cassano in a straight swap while offloading the misfiring Pazzini the other way is underlined when you read that  Casssano was AC’s leading provider of assists last season despite playing just 16 games in total, and his movement upfront should create havoc for Diego Miltio – who scored 24 goals last year despite all the turmoil at the club.

This is all supplemented by the return to form of Wesley Sedijder, who played just 20 times in Serie A last season amongst a loss of form which saw him score just 4 times last year after suffering a nagging muscular problem. How lacklustre Inter were last season is a timely reminder of how much they rely upon him but there’s no kidding that he was one of the best players at the Euros despite Holland’s wretched form and a return to form for the Dutch maestro gives Inter a really positive outlook for the new season going both forward and back.

Inter are just 5/1 to win the title with Paddy Power (and shorter elsewhere) but might be worth backing to come runners up to Juve in a straight forecast at the same price with Bet Victor, while 5/6 on them to make the top 3 is of interest too – they had won three straight titles before their decline and look well capable of ousting Milan.

Udinese will be of interest for some but have Mauricio Isla, Kwadwo Asamoah and Samir Handanovic all in one go. They’ve recovered well from losing key talent before (Barcelona’s Alexis Sanchez being a textbook example) but there’s a gut feeling that the loss of the creativity and pace on both wings will make this year more of a struggle than talisman Antonio Di Natale is used to and they could struggle badly. Colombian Luis Muriel is tipped to shine by many on his return from relegated Lecce while Willians is a top notch player to have in midfield but the feeling is that it will all be too much for the young side.

Lazio were fourth last season and have had a fairly solid transfer market in the summer with Antonio Candreva and Ederson coming, although it all looks set to come down to the trio of Stefano Mauri, Cristian Ledesma and star midfielder Hernanes once again. They can go well again despite the departure of Edy Reja but Inter and Napoli look set to improve past them this season.

The partrenopei were fifth last season but missed out by just three points, a bold showing considering how much time and effort they gave towards a bold bid in the Champions League, and they proved their quality by being the only team to beat Juventus all year in Italy in the final of the Coppa Italia at the end of the season.

The three Tenors have been broken up thanks to Lavezzi’s departure to PSG but there are high hopes that Eduardo Vargas – who ended 2011 with 25 goals and 11 assists from 44 matches,  superb when winning the Copa De Sudamericana with Universidad de Chile with 11 goals throughought the tournament the most in history - can fill the gap while Lorenzo Insgine is one of the most touted young players in Italy following a spectacular period on loan with Serie B Champions Pescara , for which he was hailed as ‘Napoli’s messi’ by Goran Pandev – and a record of 37 goals in 70 Serie B appearances augurs well for his future, while his happiness in the 4-3-3 that Zedman used is also a good sign. Marek Hamsik, Christian Maggio and Edinson Cavani are all still at the club and without the pressurs of Eruopean football, they look sure to launch a big challenge and are worth considering for a top 3 spot with Milan potentially faltering, while a surprise runners up spot wouldn’t surprise at all. They’re 9/1 without Juve

Roma have added one of the most exciting managers in Italy through Serie B’s -Zdenek Zeman, returning to the club 13 years after being sacked amid rumours that he had become a "political" inconvenience. For those who aren’t well acquainted with his traditional way of going about things, this is what Zeman had to say about Jose Mourinho; “a  great communicator who hides his mediocrity as a coach very well" and his achivement "Manager like Mourinho is hailed as genius because he wins. Well, he wins because he has the best players, not because of what he does. I could put my dead grandfather in charge of his teams and they would still win."

Regardless of his quirky style and comments, the arrival of Zedmen is good news for Roma who will be desperate to improve on their seventh placed finish last season. His aggressive style will suit a team which has never been one for defensive steel and while Luis Enqriue had good intentions, they were never really realised properly.

Keeping Daniele De Rossi at the club was a massive boost for them while they have Osvaldo, Bojan, Lamela and Totti in a side which has Italy’s Federico Blazaretti at fullback, and Matia Destro’s arial gives them a lot of firepower up front. With no European commitments they are interesting but Inter and Napoli could be the two to challenge Juventus most this season.

Advice

2 pts Juve/Inter straight forecast (5/1 Bet Victor)

1 pt Juve/Napoli straight forecast (20/1 Bet Victor)

5 pts Inter to finish in top 3 (5/6 Bet365)

1 pt Napoli to finish in Top 3 (12/5 Bet365) 

Premiership - 25th August 2012

Swansea (evs) v West Ham (11/4)

Swansea dismissed suggestions that they’re in for a serious case of second season syndrome – at least for one week – with a superb 5-0 win at QPR, a performance which has understandably made them favourites for their first home game of the season against Sam Allardayce’s West Ham. Few could argue with that quote on a visual basis but Michael Laudrup’s men might find the Hammers much harder to break down. West Ham are unbeaten on their travels since February and picked up more points away from home than any other team in the Championship last season (45), while Sam Allardayce’s team are not going to be anywhere near as easy to pass as QPR – who had quite a few new faced and missed a few chances – were last week. There’s a slight worry that they have a poor record on the road in the PL but this outfit look solid and they’re worth a small play on getting 0.5 on the Asian handicap, which means anything but a loss would be a win. A small stake on no goalscorer might not go amiss seeing as Swansea were held 3 times at home last season.

Advice: 1 pt West Ham +0.5 on Asian H’Cap (4/5 general)

Aston Villa (2) v Everton (6/4)

Everton are undoubtedly going to be one of the one of the most popular picks on the coupon given how they outplayed  Manchester United on Monday night and a price of 6/4 on that basis is entirely fair but there’s a word of warning in the fact that six of the last seven Premier League games between Villa and Everton have been draws, all of them with both teams scoring. 2-2 has popped up three times in that period, which makes the price tempting enough at 16’s, and 3/1 about a score draw with Coral.

Advice: 1 pt Score draw (3/1 Coral)

Manchester United (2/7) v Fulham (10)

Manchester United were readily outplayed and sluggish in a 1-0 defeat to Everton but there are good reasons to think that was nothing more than a blip for Sir Alex Ferguson’s side, who were (and still are) unbalanced by a number of defensive injuries, with only new signing Shiniji Kagawa having a good game. Back on home turf against Fulham – a fixture which they've won to nil in each of the last five seasons – they should be far more comfortable and the evens on them scoring in each half is of interest (they did so 15 times home and away last year) while there’s 11/8 on them scoring 3 or more goals, which also tempts one.

Advice: 2 pts Manchester United to score in both halves (evs general)

Norwich (7/5) v QPR (2)

After suffering opening-day 5-0 hidings against Fulham and Swansea respectively, many have Norwich and QPR in for difficult seasons but they might have been quick to dismiss Mark Hughes’s side on their visit to Carrow Road. QPR bounced back from a home smashing last year to win at Everton and they can at least push Norwich hard here if taking some of the chances they create, for all that Rangers have gone 16 Premier League away games without a clean sheet. Both teams to score looks to be the best option, while 2-1 Norwich is 9’s with Bet Victor and too big for such a common score.

Advice: 3 pts Both teams to score (4/6 general), 1 pt 2-1 Norwich (9/1 Bet Victor)

Southampton (11/10) v Wigan (5/2)

After such a storming show on their return to the Premiership in going down 3-2 to Manchester City on Sunday, it’s understandable that Southampton are favourites for today’s game – they also had the best home record in the Championship last season – but bookmakers have been very quick to dismiss the chances of Wigan, who played a lot better than the 2-0 scoreline suggested when beaten by Chelsea. In reality both teams were a little flattered by those scores but served considerable notice of their talents and are sure to give eachother a good game here. Take both teams to score.

Advice: 2 pts Both teams to score (8/11 general)

Sunderland (39/40) v Reading (7/2)

Sunderland – who at this exact point of writing have just pulled off the Coup of signing Adam Johnson from Manchester City – will be happy with a point from their opening game against Arsenal, although Reading are likely to be no easy task themselves. The Royals were well subdued by Stoke at home though but suddenly burst into life against Chelsea, and they themselves are hard to predict properly. All in all it looks to be one to swerve, although under 2.5 goals would be the call if really pushed.

Advice: 1 pt under 2.5 goals (4/5 general)

Tottenham (8/15) v West Brom (11/2)

Tottenham may have lost 2-1 at Newcastle but they looked as strong as they ever did last season and lost no caste in losing to a top class side. Jermain Defoe and Gareth Bale were both denied by the woodwork in the first half and Spurs had most of the play throughought the game, so look for them to bounce right back against West Brom, who were good but flattered against Liverpool with two questionable penalties and host of missed chances for the away side. Tottenham led all the way 14 times last season and that’s tempting at a best price of 13/10, which is bigger than the same odds offered on them to score in both halves – they did so 14 times as well last year. The Londoners also look worth putting in a double with Chelsea later on.

Advice: 3 pts double Tottenham and Chelsea (2.4 Paddy Power), 1 pt Tottenham/Tottenham (13/10)

Chelsea (4/7) v Newcastle (6)

This is the first test for the new look Chelsea side which currently leads the table and it’s a big one – last season’s fifth placed finishers Newcastle, who just three months ago beat Chelsea 3-0 and overturned a deficit to beat Tottenham last Saturday. A lot has passed since then however and the creativity and inventiveness of new arrivals such as Eden Hazard, who has lit the Premiership up with his brilliance so far, can see them to a win over Alan Pardrew’s men. It won’t be comfortable though and Chelsea have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5 Premier League games, so they may find that they have to work even harder than they did in midweek when beating off Reading. Chelsea are 2/1 to win while letting in a goal and that could prove to be a really sold shout, not forgetting that we already have them in our double with Tottenham.

Advice: 3 pts double Tottenham and Chelsea (2.4 Paddy Power), 2 pts Chelsea to win and concede (2/1 Coral) 

Rugby Championship - Australia v New Zealand

The inaugural match of the Rugby Championship was a thrilling one but the result between New Zealand and Australia was an all too familiar one – that of an Australian defeat to the All Blacks – and the beating may be even heavier this time around at the fortress that is Eden Park. The Aussies have been asked to give up 15 points on the handicap and that’s going to get a lot of interest but those who want to get their welly behind the All Blacks should be aware of the fact that only 3 of their last 13 wins over Australia have come by 15 or more points and the tries and points totals have also been fairly low for games with players of such quality.

New Zealand won in Sydney 29-17 but that didn’t tell the whole story as a catalogue of Wallaby errors cost Australia dearly (they failed to make a bonus point thanks to Dan Carter’s late penalty) after the boot of Berrick Barnes had hauled them back into contention from 18-3 down.  Australia were excellent with the ball in hand but poor in defence with a raft of missed tackles and poor handling, which of course gave the game straight towards the All Blacks’ tremendous speed with the ball in hand.

New Zealand coach Steve Hansen blamed the mistakes and 28 penalties – which would have been even more had it not been for the regular whistling of referee Alain Rolland – on a quick return from the Super 15 grand final but it’s only going to get more difficult for the Australians at Eden Park and all of this without their star man David Pocock due to injury. The flanker is at the heart of everything Australia do and was crucial to all of the good, quick clean attacking ball they had last week, so to say that his absence has come at the wrong time is an understatement of quite epic proportions. Quade Cooper comes back into the side but has been out of the fold at this level for quite a while and is much better when Pocock is available to provide the ball that he thrives on so often. Sekope Kepu, the tighthead prop, also misses out with a knee injury, which leaves the Wallabies badly exposed. Michael Hooper’s not a patch on Pocock, Drew Mitchell is coming from a long injury layoff on his own of the wing, and overall the whole team seems to have been shifted around a lot to make place for the one player.

It’s not a bend that augurs well and it’s one that leaves Australia open at the back, and New Zealand should be capable of scoring 30 points or more in this game. They won their World Cup semi-final here by a score of 20-6 but they had been decimated by fly half injuries  at that time and would have put more points on the board had Piri Weepu not hit a post with a penalty and missed with two more shots at goal, and the turnaround in personnel should see us given a competitive chance of landing a score punt. A winning margin punt of 1-12 points would make some appeal but the Wallabies are often blunt when visiting Eden Park (they’ve scored 6, 14, and 6 points on their last three visits) and the second half handicap of -7 with Bet365 appeals more. New Zealand were kept scoreless after half time in their Rugby World Cup semi – final and their low points tally suggests they can be pushed hard after the break.

Advice

2 pts New Zealand to score 30 points (4/5 Skybet)

1 pt New Zealand -7 on 2^nd half handicap (evs Betfred)

Nunthorpe Stakes 2012

3.40 York

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (2YO plus)

Winner £141,775

Advice: 1 pt each/way Ortensia (11/2 general), Nocturnal Affair (25/1 general)

Bated Breath: Long been confirmed as a top class sprinter and fourth Group 1 second in Ascot at King’s Stand Stakes would make him mighty hard to beat here; Worry is that recent rain could have an effect like it did last year when he was just ninth alright that came with him being on the wrong side of the course as well (winner and second drawn 11 and 15); Major chance.

Confessional: Built on what has already been a pretty outstanding season by his own standard when fourth behind Ortensia in the King George Stakes last time out but in all honestly flattered by that distance and now significantly worse off with winner, so others preferred.

Dandy Boy: Famed for posting a faster time in winning Wokingham than Black Caviar did on same card although failed to back that up in July Cup, although heavy ground should be given as an excuse for that.

Hamish McGonagall: Second in this last year although possible to suggest that he might have been flattered by that with the way the pace unfolded; Since won Listed contest here (making it 4 C&D wins) but miles behind Ortensia in King George at Goodwood and hard to see him reverse thant form today even back on his best form.

Humidor: Beaten on all 6 starts since winning Listed event at Doncaster over a year today and while his sixth in the King George and little bit of a return to form, he was still really well beaten and hard to see him having major impact on today’s race.

Masamah: Three time C&D winner who seemed to be getting back to best when a closeish third Behind Ortensia last time at Goodwood; Worse off and beaten in conditions event last time out but not impossible to see him outrunning his odds if on better terms with hemslef than earlier this year.

Moinesur Joe: Took Listed contest at Deauville (very soft, 5f) under Peslier to follow up back to form Listed third here but behind Hamish McGonagall on that occasion and finishes of no better than 11^th in both Temple and King’s Stand Stakes suggests that he’s not quote upto Group 1 level.

Nocturnal Affair: Very smart handicapper turned pattern grade horse who posted career best after career best in the UAE when sixth to Ortensia in the Group 1 Al Quoz Stakes; First run since back on dire ground when second to in Inxile (useful market for the grade) at Tipperary was a hugely encouraging reappearance and can be expected to do better here on quicker ground with that run under his belt and great chance of outrunning his odds.

Secret Witness: Nearly pulled off valuable handicap double in the pace of 24 hours back here in May (that come after an excellent effort at Ascot the time before) and soon followed that up with fourth in Group 3 along with second in York handicap; Been unplaced twice since though and this too tough.

Sole Power: Became one of a number of shock winners of this event in 2010 but to his credit as since proven himself well worthy of Group 1 winners status and unlucky not to land another one since, especially when third in Prix L’Abbaye at Longchamp last year; Has to be in the mix there even if beaten by Bated Breath twice recently and also when beaten by Ortensia as well.

Sprit Quartz: Running well in defeat since his move to Britain, placing in succession of top races and doing so once again when fourth in Coral Charge and then once again when second to Ortensia; Worse of at weight but sure to be a place contender once again.

Tangerine Trees: Fine year last season, when winning the L’Abbaye at the backend of last season; Not quite in same form this time around although been set three very hard tasks so far this season; This a possibility of back to his best.

Tiddliwinks: Sprung 25/1 shock with 6f Group 2 win here in May and followed that up with tenacious win in the Greenlands Stakes at Curragh; Penalty and deep ground might have had something to do with that but drop down to this trip might not be in his best interest in this company.

Bogart: Second string for yard with Tiddliwinks, and shaped very promisingly on return behind said stablemate in Duke Of York Stakes but form has since regressed quite a bit since then then and others make more appeal at this trip especially.

Pearl Secret: Unbeaten in four races (all at this trip on ground ranging from heavy to good), impressing hugely this season notable with handicap win at Doncaster and clear cut conditions win at York, before doing just what he had to do at Sandown where not much went his own way; Clearly extremely classy and more to come on just fifth start, but this a huge step up and big test for him; Goes on any ground, but rain might have helped his cause.

Beyond Desire: Speedy front runner who is best suited by making the running at this trip, as she showed when landing Mares’s Group 3 at Longchamp

Invincible Ash: Very smart, as he’s shown this year especially with conditions Stakes win at Meydan over Sole Power and creditable seventh in the big event; Not lived up the same standards since here and others make a bit more appeal here.

Ortensia: Top class mare who looked set to take high rank in 5f sprinting division after Group 1 double in Australia and Dubai, beating several Group 1 winners in latter in exceptional style (Sole Power included); Not had everything drop quite right for her in UK, getting upset at Royal Ascot and then slogging through heavy ground in July Cup, but on quick surface over 5 at Godoowd she proved untouchable under penalty latest despite finding herself further back than ideal.

Angels Will Fall: Quite well fancied for King George Stakes at Goodwood off the back of smoothly travelling 5f Listed fillies win but that race a whole lot weaker than this and passed over now.

VERDICT: Despite heavy rain yesterday the ground has stayed good, which gives ideal conditions for the cream of the crop to come to the fore in a race that’s had it’s fair share of shocks, with the last 4 winners having gone off 12/1, 9/1, 100/1 & 20/1. Bated Breath, Sole Power and ORTENSIA are the main form protagonists, with the latter making by far the most appeal based on her career best Al Quoz Sprint win where she had the beating of Sole Power (and therefore Bated Breath) despite coming extremely wide after a tardy start. The fact that Paul Messara’s mare tends to lose some ground in the middle of her races is a worry but if she can be kept in touch than nothing will finish faster late on. Given that this race has such a history of giving a shock, it could prove wise to have at least one outsider onside in mind and NOCTURNAL AFFAIR, who was sixth in the Al Quoz Sprint, has been improving for just about a year, and posted an excellent effort when second to Inxile on ground that would have been far too soft for him at Tipperary. 

Strensall Stakes 2012

3.05 York

Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £42,532

Advice: 3 pts place Stipulate (13/8 Blue Sq, 888 Sport)

Questioning: Started this season strongly with pair of good efforts in competitive group races at start of season (got better of Twice Over in one of them); Not been quite at same form since and readily done for speed in weak for the grade Group 2 Summer Mile and others make much more appeal here under penalty.

Side Glance: Has best form claims of any here on Queen Anne Third (big effort but flattered) and third in York Stakes, form of which has since been boosted by Asfare coming an excellent second in Arlington Million; Now has penalty here but drop in trip should help from 10.5f should help him put up a bold show.

Dubai Prince: Hugely talented as 2yo for Dermot Weld before sold to Godolphin and injury intervened; Still shown same talent on two occasions, making it 2-2 over this specialist trip with convincing win in Conditions contest  here two starts back; Much better than his sixth in the Glrious Stakes at Goodwood suggests.

Fury: Been bought right back to his best this year and deserved first win in a year when winning York Listed handicap over a mile, a just reward for a series of efforts under massive weights in mile handicaps; Creditable fifth at Chantilly in Group 3 and then second to Dubai Prince, although that was a truly well beaten second and hard to expect form reversal here.

Tazahum: Second in this to extremely progressive Green Destiny last year but not quite refound same form since until winning conditions contest at Newmarket last time; Remains to be seen just how much of that was down to extremely smart ride from Paul Hanagan although with stable still being in red hot form, must be respected here.

Barefoot Lady: Hard to find a more consistent filly anywhere and game Listed fillies win here one of her typical performances; Has previously been involved in some classy fillies races and no surprise if she’s able to take a big hand here.

Stipulate: Improved hand over fist to win Listed event at Newmarket on reappearance and better form with every single run since, notably when second in Group 3 at Ascot (trip stretched him in ground that was riding quite soft) and then when fourth in competitive Group 3 after blocked passage last time; This trip suits him down to the ground (his Listed win came at this distance) and hard to beat today.

VERDICT: A quality renewal of a race which sees this trip being sure to suit more than one contender either dropping down or going up in distance. Anyone of four could be given a realistic chance on form but this looks to be an ideal opportunity for STIPULATE after finding 10 furlongs a bit too far and a mile a touch too short (with a poor run as well). The 7/2 in general appeal but with the strength of the race as it is a lumpy place bet might be the best option. Side Glance makes most appeal of the rest, with this drop in trip from an extended 10 furlongs sure to prove a big help, while Dubai Prince is capable of winning this if able to show his best, and Barefoot Lady can’t be discounted at all.