If the first two stages of this year’s Tour De France are
anything to be going by, all cycling fans are in for quite a treat over the
next three weeks. After the first day’s incessant crashing and bus themed
drama, yesterday we had a 6 man break spring late after a day full of action,
which Jan Bakelantes ignoring the cat and mouse games to strike for home so far
and so early that he took the yellow jersey with a gap of just a second from the
chasing pack, which didn’t include so many of the sprinters that had hopes of pulling
on the yellow jersey for a day.
Today’s hot favourite, as he was yesterday, is Peter Sagan, who
was just a second behind Bakelants and can still take the yellow jersey with a
win today, assuming that he is able to distance Bakelants by more than one
second in victory. With today’s profile once again one for the puncheurs, he
should take beating but he’s no price at 2/1 with so many variables against
him.
Part of the plan to create drama from the start, today’s
race is much like yesterday’s with a rolling profile that ‘doesn’t contain a
metre of flat’ according to the organisers. The first sprint comes early – 28KM
infact – but after a long descent, so how many points will be on offer is very
debateable. The col de San Martino and Cote De Porto offer mountains points but
neither are expected to be partirucalry testing and today’s deciding factor
will be the Col De Marsolino – 3.3km at
an average gradient of 8.1% - after steadily rising road. Just 12KM from the
finish, much like yesterday’s Salario, it’ll be the deciding factor with a
narrow, tricky and fast descent rewarding those who can make it to the top
intact – there’s a roundabout with 500m to go, but it shouldn’t make a huge
amount of difference for those who have their wits about them.
The terrain is made for a breakaway on paper but so many
holding with a chance for yellow from a number of teams who would be strong
enough to keep it for a while, and Radioshack likely to do everything to
protect it, every effort will be made to control a break today and reel it in,
although it may be late.
The finish fits any number of riders but we’re looking for someone
with the capability to accelerate on the climb and a fast descended, while
sprinting will be important. If the grupetto are altogether then the GC
favourites may come into the reckoning also – Chris Froome’s idea of keeping
people on their toes’ with a late attack maybe on others minds today – here’s
looking at you, Joaqium Rodriguez.
Slyvain Chavanel might not be all pure climber but his all-round
skills are unrivalled and it would have been interesting to see how he’d have
fared had he not played cat and mouse when the pack were closing in. My
thinking is that he’d have been hard to beat given the power of the group, and
he is much better than a 16/1 shot for terrain like this – team mate and
National Polish Champion Michal Kwiatkowski could also be there, having
finished like a flash to take third in a bunch sprint yesterday.
Fourth and fifth in the Amstel Gold and La Fleche Wallone, Kwiatkowski
is rapidly becoming a top all-rounder and has shown not only his capability to
handle the sharper, harder climbs, but also his prowess in a select sprint
group, and while the 30/1 with Bwin is simply outstanding, the lack of an
each/way option leads us to the 22/1 with Paddy Power.
Advice
1 pt each/way Sylvain Chavanel (16/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt each/way Michal Kwiatkowski (22/1 Paddy Power)
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