3.45 Royal Ascot (Day 1, Race 3)
St James's Palace Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group
1) (Rnd) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £198,485
Advice: 1 pt win Toronado (9/2 general)
Dawn Approach: Champion 2yo last year, winning Coventry,
National and Dewhurst Stakes in fine style and justifies hot favouritism in
Guineas when drawing well away for 5 length win, the best milling performance
seen so far amongst classic generation; Stepped up in trip for Derby but
plainly didn’t start, although his race over long way before that given how
unsettled he was during the race; Surprise to see him returned so quickly given
what happened (had been strong suggestions he’d have waited longer) and very
hard to gauge what shape he’ll be in, but form suggests he’s the best horse in
this race. 
Dundonell: Good, consistent 2yo who was only ¾ of a length
behind Toronado last year but below par when well beaten in Craven (got weight)
and back to his best when winning Listed event over 7 furlongs at Newmarket
latest; Could have more to offer, but others make more appeal and looks held on
several formlines. 
George Vancouver: Can be brilliant when he gets his proper
ground conditions, as he showed when winning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in style
last year (Dundonell behind), but nowhere near as good this year and hard to
fancy unless the ground is rattling. 
Glory Awaits: Looked only fair as 2yo and when third in
Fielden Stakes, but much improved when racing prominently and wide in 2,000
Guineas; That form repeated would give him place chances but no match for Dawn
Approach and appears as if Toronado was below best that day, so others make
more appeal despite tempting price. 
Leitir Mor: Pacemaker for Dawn Approach who can take a race
or two himself as he showed last week at Leopardstown. 
Magican: Exploded onto the secene this season, romping home
in weak looking Dee Stakes but laying claim to top mile races when romping to
clear cut win in Irish 2,000 Guineas, with no horse unable to go with him when
he made his move; Form backed up by stablemates fourth in French Guineas and
Trading Leather’s win, so big chance if over his small knock last week. 
Mars: Hype horse of winter after his deeply impressive win
in only 2yo start, but abundant promise when sixth in Guineas and Derby,
despite being held up when both races favoured those closer to front for
various reasons; To see him dropped down to 1m (stayed on well in Derby and set
for Tercentenary) is a surprise but expect this to be a well run affair from
start and he should take far closer rank this time, so can’t be dismissed after
just three runs.
Mshawish: Smooth winner of Prix Birum on return and looked
to have little chance in Prix Du Jockey Club, but to his credit he was a solid
fourth that day, even though he never looked as if he’s going to enjoy a mile
more; Plenty more needed in any case. 
Toronado: Expected to put up the stiffest resistance to Dawn
Approach in Guineas and did for long way, but flattened out disappointingly
into fourth (beaten 7 and a half lengths) when dropping back quickly in last
two furlongs, but it has since emerged that he displaced his palate, which
makes that showing quite impressive on face value; Well worth another hance
here.
VERDICT: One of the most fascinating and exciting races of
the week in store with questions over all the horses but also compelling cases
to be made, with Dawn Approach a worthy favourite if over a horror showing in
the Derby. There are various schools of thought to suggest he could be fresher
than some think for this, but he comes back sharply after such a showing and
while if at his best, he can win well, he’s swerved today. So too is Magican,
for had a minor knock last week and is stepping up in class, and another chance
is given to TORONADO, who was disappointing in the Guineas for many but was
found to have displaced a palate afterwards and still has something to offer,
especially if he improved for a more restrained ride.
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