In all the 99 years of the Tour De France we’ve seen some
pretty incredible drama but yesterday’s opening stage was from the absurd to the
brutal and right back again. Mark Cavendish’s dreams of wearing yellow went
down with most of the rest of the field, only as the confusion caused by the
Orica Greenedge Bus which somehow found itself wedged beneath the finish line,
meaning that the organisers were forced to announce that they would bring the
finish forward by three kilometres, the bus of the Australian team was freed to
allow the organisers to use the original finish after all.
The confusion – predictably, some might have said, or as
Mark Cavendish predicted – led to crashes, one of which took out most of the
field including Alberto Contador, most likely ending Tony Martin’s tour, and
taking out the three big favourites for the Green Jersey in Peter Sagan, Mark
Cavendish and Andre Greipel.
If Sagan is fully recovered – and he seemed jovial after
yesterday’s fall – then he is expected to win today’s second stage, which is
part 2 of the Tour’s three day jaunt to Corsica, designed to showcase the
beauty of the Island and see aggressive racing which will see the yellow jersey
change three times in three days, in stark contrast to the usually flat first
weeks of previous years.
The profile steadily rises from the start, with the
intermediate sprint located in Castello Di-Rostino after just 33KM, meaning a break
would do well to get away. After 48 and then 63KM (with first climb of the day)
the road kicks up again with the Col de Bellegerajo, before the Col De La
Serra, and then the Col De Vizzzavona, which is 6.5% for nearly 5KM.
Following that, there’s a long and fast descent – not overly
technical which in theory will allow those dropped to get back on if in realistic
touching distance – some 30KM’s are downhill. The race’s finish is an up and
down affair, with the Cote Du Salario meant to be just a Category 3 climb in in
reality a proper ramp for a kilometre, having an average over 8.9%. I expect
that to put paid to any sprinters’ – and if not that, then the ramp of 5% with
2KM to go should prove too much once again.
It’s a day made for Peter Sagan, but at 13/8 he’s priced like
a winner already and it might be best to look elsehwhere. Mark Cavendish is
only 7/1, which seems on the short side given the amount of climbing early and
even if he’d make it back on the downhill run, he’ll be vulnerable to attacks
on the Solario – assuming he can handle the percentages anyway.
John Degenkolb is a better climber than most would put him
down as but thrives on the uphill finish so much more than most and has the
same worries with extended periods of uphill effort.
Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen is arguably the second best
puncheur in this race behind Sagan, and should Sky be near the front of the
Peloton – they were always in attendance today – he may be let off the leash
and while you wouldn’t expect him to stay with Sagan, he can drop any sprinter
he’d like on the ascents. A general price of 14/1 must be worth a chance and
Coral’s 16/1 could easily look like a mistake tomorrow afternoon, and the 7/2
he finishes in the top three is worth taking too.
Advice
1 pt win Edvald Boasson Hagen (16/1 Coral, 14/1 general)
1 pt Edvald Boasson Hagen top three finish (7/2 Bwin)
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