The first three stages of the Tour de France gave been quite
literally roller-coaster affairs, but today’s all change as the first GC test
comes with Nice’s team time trial today.
The geology of the first three stages has been the most
varied in recent tour history, but this is cut and dry; 25 kilometres on roads
almost as flat as a pancake with very few turns; The most powerful side will
win and the gaps in theory shouldn’t be a major problem today with a simple
route.
With 90 riders within a second of the yellow jersey,
including a number strong enough to keep it until the first summit finish,
plenty of sides will have their eyes on the main prize today, not least
Garmin-Sharp who have a realistic chance of putting David Millar in the lead
with a win today.
With Ryder Hesjdal, Daniel Martin, Andrew Talansky, Jack
Bauer and young powerhouse Rohan Dennis – beaten only by Tony Martin in the
recent Tour De Romandie time trial - amongst their squad, they are very worthy
favourites and will take some stopping here on a route that offers little or no
challenges to rhythm and power.
In a fiercely competitive event, Omega Pharma Quickstep, the
World Champions at this discipline, are capable of putting Michael Kwitaowski –
currently holding the white jersey – in yellow and boast the best time
trialling team around, with Sylvain
Chavanel, Kwiatkowski, Nikki Terpstra and Peter Velits making a formidable
foursome, but with Tony Martin essentially injured – how he’s standing is a
miracle, let alone riding – their chances take a huge hit. However he did
finish in the front group yesterday and with the squad able to drop 4 riders if
need be, they still have a fine shot of putting the young pole in yellow.
Skybet’s dual forecast of Garmin and Omega at 5/2 looks a very solid option and
far better value than making a difficult choice between the two, with the
straight forecast of the two at 11/2 looking like value.
Team Sky have mastered this discipline very quickly and with
4 of their team having been in the top 10 of the Tour Du Romandie time trial
last month they’d obviously be major contenders but Ian Stannard and Geraint
Thomas especially, suffered badly in the first day crash and while Porte and
Froome will expect to put good time into their rivals and can take long turns
on the front, they may find that the raw power of the front two deprives them
of a win.
Orica Greenedge are excellent formation riders who are on a
roll, but may lack the significant depth to put the pedal to the medal on the
front, and the same goes for BMC – not to discount either of these teams, but
they don’t boast the time trial specialists in numbers like the favourites do.
Movistar – our tip for the team classification – are interesting
if Nairo Quintana and Jonathan Castroviejo
bring their best to the table, but again two riders won’t win today’s stage. A hiller
route would suit them far more, but this isn’t their bag. Today is a damage
limitation exercise for Alberto Contador’s Saxo Tinkoff team, along with FDJ.fr
and Europcar for Thibaut Pinot and Pierre Rolland respectively.
Radioshack Leopards will fight for Bakelants all day but
they have the same problem as others do – they don’t have three or four specialists
to take powerful turns, and while a strong showing is expected, it’s more
likely than not they’ll lose the yellow jersey today.
Advice
1 pt Garmin/Omega Pharma Quick Step reverse forecast (5/2
Skybet)
1 pt Garmin/Omega Pharma Quick Step straight forecast (11/2
Skybet)
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