Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Tour De France 2013 - Stage 4

The first three stages of the Tour de France gave been quite literally roller-coaster affairs, but today’s all change as the first GC test comes with Nice’s team time trial today.


The geology of the first three stages has been the most varied in recent tour history, but this is cut and dry; 25 kilometres on roads almost as flat as a pancake with very few turns; The most powerful side will win and the gaps in theory shouldn’t be a major problem today with a simple route.

With 90 riders within a second of the yellow jersey, including a number strong enough to keep it until the first summit finish, plenty of sides will have their eyes on the main prize today, not least Garmin-Sharp who have a realistic chance of putting David Millar in the lead with a win today.



With Ryder Hesjdal, Daniel Martin, Andrew Talansky, Jack Bauer and young powerhouse Rohan Dennis – beaten only by Tony Martin in the recent Tour De Romandie time trial - amongst their squad, they are very worthy favourites and will take some stopping here on a route that offers little or no challenges to rhythm and power.


In a fiercely competitive event, Omega Pharma Quickstep, the World Champions at this discipline, are capable of putting Michael Kwitaowski – currently holding the white jersey – in yellow and boast the best time trialling team around, with  Sylvain Chavanel, Kwiatkowski, Nikki Terpstra and Peter Velits making a formidable foursome, but with Tony Martin essentially injured – how he’s standing is a miracle, let alone riding – their chances take a huge hit. However he did finish in the front group yesterday and with the squad able to drop 4 riders if need be, they still have a fine shot of putting the young pole in yellow. Skybet’s dual forecast of Garmin and Omega at 5/2 looks a very solid option and far better value than making a difficult choice between the two, with the straight forecast of the two at 11/2 looking like value.


Team Sky have mastered this discipline very quickly and with 4 of their team having been in the top 10 of the Tour Du Romandie time trial last month they’d obviously be major contenders but Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas especially, suffered badly in the first day crash and while Porte and Froome will expect to put good time into their rivals and can take long turns on the front, they may find that the raw power of the front two deprives them of a win.


Orica Greenedge are excellent formation riders who are on a roll, but may lack the significant depth to put the pedal to the medal on the front, and the same goes for BMC – not to discount either of these teams, but they don’t boast the time trial specialists in numbers like the favourites do.


Movistar – our tip for the team classification – are interesting if Nairo Quintana and  Jonathan Castroviejo bring their best to the table, but again two riders won’t win today’s stage. A hiller route would suit them far more, but this isn’t their bag. Today is a damage limitation exercise for Alberto Contador’s Saxo Tinkoff team, along with FDJ.fr and Europcar for Thibaut Pinot and Pierre Rolland respectively.


Radioshack Leopards will fight for Bakelants all day but they have the same problem as others do – they don’t have three or four specialists to take powerful turns, and while a strong showing is expected, it’s more likely than not they’ll lose the yellow jersey today.


Advice


1 pt Garmin/Omega Pharma Quick Step reverse forecast (5/2 Skybet)



1 pt Garmin/Omega Pharma Quick Step straight forecast (11/2 Skybet)

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