The strength of the opposition has been the dominant theme
of this lions tour so far but in facing the Waratahs the Lions will have their
second toughest test of the tour so far and those who were complaining about
the Lions not getting a thorough workout have short memories given how exposed
they were at time against the Reds last week won’t be treating today’s venture
as an easy win in waiting.
There were worries that the Tahs wouldn’t provide the needed
test given the fact they supply 10 of the Australian squad to play the Lions
and themselves have had injuries and while they’re not as good a franchise as
the Reds, coach Michael Cheika has revitalised his franchise this season and is
taking the same line as Ewan McKenzie in naming the strongest squad possible
for this match.
He’s only taken back two players from the Aussie squad but
in number 8 Dave Dennis and outside centre Rob Horne the Lions will face two
International players and the combination of Dennis and flanker Pat McCucheon
will test what many see as a potential test backrow at some point of Croft,
under pressure Sam Warburton and Jamie Heaslip, while the recall of playmaker
Benard Foley from Australia’s Sevens will put together a halfback partnership
which is certain to give direction to a backline that has Drew Mitchell amongst
others.
This is arguably the strongest –or closest to test selection
– that Gatland has made so far this tour, with Johnny Sexton back in the plate
at 10 and partnering Mike Phillips, while a front row of Vunipola, Youngs and
Adam Jones would get many votes to start in just a week. With the set piece
having been a little disappointing so far in terms of both lineout and scrum
performance, the lock partnership of Paul O’Connell and Alun Wyn Jones’s role
at lineout time will be vital given the numerous opportunities shipped in
opposition territory so far on tour. There are concerns of both Welsh wings and Manu Tuilagi, but Simon Zebo was arguably overlooked for the tour unfairly in the first place and Sean Maitalnd has been in fine form.
The handicap set for the Lions is in the mid 20’s, which is
passable, but since the Western Force the Lions haven’t passed their marks and
there’s a little doubt over the duration of their peak performance – they were
38-0 up v a country side at half time in midweek and only won 64-0 despite
having chances to go close to a century. This Tahs side isn’t as good as the
Reds’ outfit that pushed them to 10 points, while better conditions for playing
should also ensure the Lions’ moves stick more often than not. That said, today
should be no romp and a ditching of 11-20 and 21-30 winning margins for the men
in red looks to be the best bet today.
Advice
1 pt Lions to win by 11-20 points (3/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt Lions to win by 21-30 points (3/1 Paddy Power)
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