After two games which may well have been played against
schoolboys, those deriding Australian opposition got a nasty shock on Saturday
when the Queensland Reds gave Gatland’s men what is likely to be the fiercest
non test game they’ll have on the whole of the tour, while the dreaded injury
count is also now taking it’s toll on and off the pitch.
Last week saw the departures of not only Cian Healy but
Gethin Jenkins coming at loosehead, a critical double blow given the
scrumagging power of both in an area which is very much the advantage of
Northern Hemisphere sides against their counterparts, while Tommy Bowe hasn’t
been sent home just yet – there is hope that he may yet play a part given a
strong recovery from surgery he has recently – although he is
In what is a relatively strong Lions squad, Alex Corbisiero –
who has had a short international career but already shown the talent and
technique to suggest he can give the Lions an advantage – and Ryan Grant – who
has been at the forefront of the Scottish scrum – are both strong replacements
while Bowe’s absence may not be as keenly felt given that Alex Cuthbert has
been as strong on tour while Simon Zebo – capable of covering 15 as well as the
wing - has also looked top class in limited international appearances.
Regardless of such issues, today’s matchup against an NSW-Queensland
Country side made up of made up of players from outside of Australia's major
cities (the exact criteria, as helpfully summed up by Russ Petty here, having
been that a ‘player selected has been born / raised in the Country’), which
effectively lacks any sort of established Super Rugby spine in the side.
Only eight super rugby players start, and the most capped of
them has just 12 appearances for the Reds, and the biggest factor for most
would be the Lions’s team selection. The decision to bring only two specialist
flyhalves and nobody else who could properly cover attracted much criticism at
the beginning of the tour and with Sexton having hamstring trouble and Farell
having a dead leg, leaving both off today’s match-day squad, Stuart Hogg – who
hasn’t played at 10 since his school days – gets an opportunity to turn the
backline, while his Scotland teammate Sean Maitland starts at fullback.
It might set a worrying precedent for the bigger games if
injuries occur but three factors should make those factors redundancy. The
first is the obvious lack of quality in the combined side they’re facing. The
second is the quality of a backrow which includes ball running flankers Sean O’Brien
and Justin Tipuric, both of whom have been excellent on tour so far, while
Jamie Heaslip has arguably outperformed Toby Faletau with his rout of the
Western Force.
Thirdly, is the centre and wing combination of Alex Cuthbert
– a prolific tryscorer a the highest level for a long time and George North –
who made three clean breaks and 138 meters on Saturday, while Brian O’Driscoll
and Jamie Roberts are more than capable of taking apart better sides than this
between them.
A minimum handicap of 75 is more than fair – Stuart Hogg’s
passing skills are more than capable of releasing his backline while Conor
Murray’s service should be more than good enough – and it would be disappointing
if the Lions couldn’t think of going close to three figures. A stronger Western
Force side haemorrhaged 67 points and this is a side of similar strength, only
with even less experience/quality to call upon and it would be disappointing if
they couldn’t pass a set mark of 83 points. Value is hard to find but an 81-90 winning
margin might be the pick at 9/2 with Ladbrokes.
Advice
3 pts Lions -75 (10/11 Ladbrokes)
2 pts Lions to score 83 or more point (5/6 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Lions to win by 81-90 points (9/2 Ladbrokes)
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