We haven’t even gotten to the first test yet - although we’re only a game and less than a
week away - and already this Lions tour seems to be one that will live long in
the memory, and as a more worrying matter for the visitors it has become a tour
dominated now by injury. Of course, it’s a normal part of any tour – sadly –
but the numerous injuries that the Lions have suffered over the last week are
beginning to pose potentially serious problems.
6 of the players that will start today’s test were not named
in the original squad of 37 to travel to Australia, with the big media
attention having been focused on the late call up of Shane Williams, one of the
finest wingers in recent history – who has been retired from International
Rugby for well over a year know and has been taken from media duties to play
here. Having been away from top level rugby for so long it’ll be very
interesting to see the condition he’s in for just one game. Elsewhere,
England’s speedster Christian Wade – who has been in fine form all season and
had been pushing for his first cap long before he was given it in Argentina –
and England centres Brad Baritt and Billy Twelvetrees also getting starts,
there’s very much a ‘fill in’ feel to a game which traditionally only tells us
who’s not going to start the first test, but on paper this looks to be a strong
side to say the least.
The backrow of Sean O’Brien, Justin Tipuric and Toby Faletau
contained two of the most impressive players of the tour according to some
while a lock pairing of Richie Gray and Ian Evans has significant potential
with the Scot having been impressive, while a front row of Stevens, Best and
Grant should be able to retain parity at least with a strong brumbies
counterpart, and at 9, Ben Youngs should form a very quick partnership with
Stuart Hogg, who is the main worry for those backing the Lions. Hogg – who has
barely played 10 as a full professional – looked assured against a combine
country XV but was paying a side with just a handful of Super Rugby players to
their name and the tough tackling Brumbies will be very different.
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| Plenty of new faces for the Lions - a tad sooner than expected |
Jake White’s side lead the overall Super Rugby table with 59
points, having lost just three out of 15 games, and with a full strength side
may well have been one of, if not the
toughest tests the Lions face on tour. As it is, despite the several
players they have called up with the Wallabies, they’re still able to field a
more than decent side.
Their backline will play host to Jesse Mogg – with the ability
to counter the best of Gatland’s kick chase and the pace to burn for finishing
opportunities – Henry Speight – a winger of International class who will miss
out on eligibility to play for Australia against the Lions by a matter of
months, having scored 19 tries for the Brumbies in 42 games – and Matt Toomua,
who is a solid operator and also strong in defence as well. Upfront, Ruan Smith, Silva Silva and Scott Sio will be able
to push the Lions scrum and their lock duo of Power and Carter should be a
force and their backrow of Fardy, Faignnaa and Kimlin is more competitive the
Lions will have faced for a good time.
With a record of 6 wins from eight home games, having let in just 78 points against their
fellow Australians, the Brumbies – who have one of the best defences in Super
Rugby – will be a tough nut to crack in conditions which bring rain and
freezing cold conditions to the table. The home side’s handicap of 11 points is tempting, but the
extra class of the Lions can come through for a 1-12 point win at 7/4 which is
the best value on offer out of the straight choice.
Advice
2 pts Lions to win by 1-12 points (7/4 general)
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