This year’s Royal Ascot is one of the most competitive weeks
for some time and the top jockey market reflects the various range of chances that most of the top jockeys can call
upon this year, with the big three’ of Ryan Moore, Joseph O’Brien and Richard Hughes.
When betting for the heat first came out Joseph O’Brien was
originally a hot favourite but with only one Royal Ascot winner so far, it can
be argued that he’s much closer to the right price now. Once criticised by many
for a lack of positioning and strength in the biggest race, O’Brien now bellies
his age of just 20 and considerable height at the highest level, and has ridden
Group 1 winners on three continents and in 6 countries. With two years’
experience at Royal Ascot and several big rides here on other occasions, the
course and meeting should be no worries for him and his lineup of rides over
the week is a golden looking one.
The presence of Dawn Approach has put a spanner in the works
for the chance of Magician in the St James’s Palace but he still has a first
rate chance, while Stubbs in the Coventry, Justification in the Ascot Stakes,
and Wilshere Boulevard in the Windsor Castle, he has three realistic win and
stronger place chances on the first day and with the all important countback system
in place here getting seconds and thirds will be vital.
Obviously he’ll get strong rides affiliated with Ballydoyle,
but it’s worth noting that he’s set to ride Gale Force Ten, Camelot, Coach
House, Battle Of Marengo, Mars, and Leading Light this week, and while you
would hope that he can add a couple of good handicap rides, he’s a worthy
favourite.
He doesn’t have a complete monopoly over Ballydoyle rides
though, and Ryan Moore – the winner of this for the last three years and now
leading a fierce title duel with Richard Hughes – looks the better market
leader.
He doesn’t have a cast iron favourite or banker rider this
week, but already today he can call on Sir John Hawkins in the Coventry and
Fountain of Youth in the Windsor Castle today while Dank, Bye Bye Birdie and
Mango Diva all hold strong chances tomorrow.
Later in the week, Estimate in the Gold Cup, Pavolsk in the
Coronation, Sea Siren, in the Golden Jubilee and even the likes of Duke of
Firenze in the Wokingham all have strong chances for him and with a range of
handicap chances all there too, he should be well able to land enough seconds
and thirds and with just three winners landing him the title last year, he
makes appeal to win it yet another time.
It’s remarkable that Hughes had has 26 meeting winners and
never once won the leading title but his chances are as obvious as any and with
Richard Hannon’s stable at the height of it’s power. Milers Toronado and Sky
Lantern both have top chances, while in every juvenile event he can have a
horse with a winning chance. It’s a shame that there’s no each/way betting at
9/2 is widely on offer, but nobody could deny him a winning chance and he’s the
biggest danger to Moore.
Of the rest, Jamie Spencer’s Qatar racing connections –
including favourites chance Just the Judge in the Coronation later in the week
along with Beldale Memory in the Queen Mary – make him interesting, but both
could be beaten and his overall strength in depth may not be enough to land the
title.
William Buick was so unlucky not to win last year and has
two chances at Group 1 level in Elusive Kate and The Fugue, along with Gordon
Lord Bryon in the Golden Jubilee, but John Gosden has openly admitted that he
doesn’t have the same quality lurking that he did last year. With Lady Cecil
having so many fancied chances, Tom Queally might be the best of the rest with three to four potential winners and plenty of place chances all from Warren Palace coming.
Advice
2 pts Ryan Moore (9/4 general)
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