The biggest negative of this Lions tour – barring the
sickening loss of Cian Healy and the persistent injury worries over Gethin
Jenkins – for many has been the derisory standard of opposition in their two
games so far, but complaints about that factor will end tonight when the Lions
face the Reds in the heart of Queensland at the fierce rugby hotbed that is
Suncorp stadium.
Two walkovers against the Barbarians and then a second rate
Western Force side have called many to worry about the readiness of Gatland’s side
for the test series which is now just two weeks away, while also leading many
to criticize Force coach Michael Foley, but today will be a very different
test. The Barbarians side was significantly inferior to the Lions but also had
the problem of a short time for cohesion, while the same problem blighted the
Force who called upon a large amount of second string players. The strong Reds
side named for today’s encounter however comes from a team which lies 9 places
and some 27 points clear of the Force – well in contention for a playoff space
as one of four sides that have gone clear of the rest of the table – and also
boasts 9 Australia capped players, including the whole front row which will not
face either of their first choice pre Tour counterparts, and most famously of
all, former Australia flyhalf Quade Cooper, who is aiming to impress enough to
grab one of 6 additional spots the coach will name next Tuesday after a much
publicised fallout.
The Lions have had little or no defending to do so far this
tour – The Western Force threatened once or twice and scored a couple of tries
but never had the game in danger – but the presence of Cooper, Australia’s
flyhalf for their 2011 Tri Nations win and their run to the semi finals of the
World Cup later that year, and his motivation should see that change, while the
top class and well versed centre combination of Ben Tapuai and Antiony Faingaa
should provide and epic battle for Johnatahn Davies and Manu Tuilagi, and the
asset of Ben Lucas at fullback will also provide pace and reliable defence.
Sam Warburton makes a long overdue first start as captain
with several impressing in the backrow since then, forming an all Welsh trio
with Dan Lydiate and Toby Faletau, but he will face a stiff comeback with Beau
Robinson at openside for the hosts, and the lock pairing of Gray and Parling
comes up against a familiar pairing of Adam Wallace-Harrison and Ed O’Donoghue,
both very similar players towards the Lions pairing. Ben Daley doesn’t’ have
fond memories of international rugby after a manshaming at the hands of England
in 2010 but he could well have been facing Gethin Jenkins today, and the Reds
front row should give the Lions their stiffest test all tour; There’s no
excuses for the bench being a problem either, with Mike Harris, Dom Shipperley
and the evergreen Radike Samo as replacements.
The visitors should have enough class to win by a decent
margin – their wing combination of Bowe and Cuthbert bring huge attacking
threat while Davies and Tuilagi is an interesting centre combination, but
should find the Reds much harder to break down – they’ve conceded an average of
only 19 points and let in only 21 tries in Super Rugby. The Lions scored 6
tries after the brek against the Western Force, repeating their late bursts
against the Barbarians, and can give 8 points on the second half handicap.
Advice
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