The Lions return after 12 long winless years to Australia
for a chance to end a 16 year winless streak in series terms and all the money
has been for Gatland’s ‘red slabs of meat’ to get the first blow as they did
when losing the series in 2001.
That series is viewed by many as one of the great missed
chances for a series win, but the general view is that the Lions won’t be
beaten four times in a row and they start this test as clear favourites for win
even if the handicap is a maximum of four.
Until Tuesday’s loss against the Brumbies, the Lions had
been unbeaten on tour and the first major issue to come out of the tour was the
quality of the opposition that the Lions had in time for the first test, with
one sides romps against the Barbarians and Western Force especially prompting
many to worry about the quality of competition, but the hard fought win against
the Reds and explosive performance against the Waraths just a week ago provided
proper tests and are the only two games worth close analysis with regards to
today’s match
The Lions in the end won both games by a combined total of
40 points but the Reds game was both worrying and encouraging in equal measure.
Facing a strong side at today’s venue of the Suncorp stadium, the pace that the
Reds put into the game for the first half hour had the Lions all at sea and
left several of the players defensively exposed, while the abrasive breakdown
work of Beau Robinson – until his injury – had given Sam Waurburton the
runaround.
However the way that the Lions eventually pulled clear and
maintained a good gap was impressive, even taking into account the handling
errors that came in the poor conditions – not expected to be a major problem
today.
The other key measure of performance is the most impressive
performance of the tour so far – their 47-17 win over the Waraths, where
today’s backrow, halfbacks, and second row started along with two thirds of the
back three and front row.
Mako Vunipola’s omission for Alex Corbisero takes away from
the ball carrying of the front row but with the forward pack the Lions area of
strength, and the scrum the key weapon for northern hemisphere success against
Australia of late, te decision is understandable, woth the abrasive second row
pairing of O’Connell and Wyn Jones should get a good platform for Croft,
Warburton and Heaslip to profit.
This area will be crucial – the Australian strategy of
supporting Hooper with bodies has made the breakdown a strength of theirs in
recent years despite the gutting injury to David Pocock - with Warburton tasked upon playing
‘fetcher’, defending and wrecking efforts to get quick ball to an Australian
backline of the highest quality.
Genia’s talents are well known
but if he gets enough quick ball he can run riot and in him, James O’Connor and
Christian Lealiifano Australia have three playmakers in the
back 5 who offer both a running threat – O’Connor has also played wing – and
the explosive Israel Folau will be a giant handful for Alex Cuthbert’s defence
– not forgetting Digby Ioane running at George North.
The biggest relief
however, is to see O’Driscoll, Sexton and Halfpenny present. With the game
likely to be played with ball in hand, the Lions will need high quality
direction with so much pace and muscle and Sexton has thankfully stayed fit
until today despite a few scares.
Australia’s pack is
more power based than mobile, but they will look to take the ball wide at all
opportunity and it’s clear this game will be played at pace, thus removing the
idea of a win built solely on the foundations of forward power and defence –
much like when Ireland turned over Australia in the pool stages of the World
Cup in 2011.
The Lions are backed to give 4 points
and a beating but Australia have won 13 of the 16 Suncorp Stadium games since
it’s redevelopment, with their two losses both coming by 4 points to New
Zealand, and if anything one is tempted to back the home side in the match odds.
However the one obvious thing seems to be that this will be a tight game and in
last summer’s series against Wales two of the games were decided by a single
score – the same for their Autumn International in Cardiff. The Lions are 9/2
to win by 1-5 points and Australia 11/2 to do the same, and that’s where the
money’s going, while those who fancied the Lions strongly are directed to the
Australia/Lions halftime/fulltime bet. Australia have been behind only once
here in tests since 2003, and the Lions have won every second half on tour.
Advice
1 pt Lions to win by 1-5 points (9/2
general)
1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points
(11/2 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Australia/Lions (7/1 Sportingbet)
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