This year’s 6 Nations was a wonderful one for Italy but
they’re expected to be bought down to earth with a thump by South Africa today
in the second game of the Castle Larger series.
Henyke Meyer’s spell in charge hasn’t been easy going, with a
conservative selection policy and chequered results through the first Four
Nations leading to many new critics, but the best is still to come for South
Africa and the main aim of a top seeding for the World Cup was achieved without
too much fuss after a strong run against Northern Hemishphere sides in both the
Summer and Autumn Internationals. In a surprise move for many, the Cheetahs’ wing
Willie Le Roux gets a much deserved debut at fullback, while the addition of Bulls
scrum-half Jano Vermaak is less of a surprise given the fatigue of Ruan
Pieenar, the ineffectiveness of Francois Hougaard, and the excellent
partnership that him and Morne Steyn have had this season in the Super 15, with
the Bulls second only to the Chiefs and Brumbies at the time of writing.
Many would be hopeful that such inclusions might be the
start of a more expansive Springbok gameplan but the inclusion of Steyn, who
has refound the form with the boot that cost South Africa so dearly last year,
over playmaker Patrick Lambie, suggests that grunt upfront will be the plan and
that the sweeping change some are hoping for isn’t coming just yet. 6 of the
eight players who made up the pack in the last test of 2012 against England are
back for the game against Italy and both those changes - at are due to injury
(or a return from health issues in the case of Beast Mtawarira. South Africa
had a poor Four Nations but edged out England twice in a three test series
before sweeping Europe in their end of year tour, even if they were fortunate to
beat a second string Ireland and even more so to beat England, with the
luckiest of tries early in the second half proving to be too much of a gap for
them to pass, while Scotland gifted them an easy lead before a second half
fghtback.
The problem for Italy, who turned their promising performances
into two wins in this year’s 6 Nations, is the the teams just mentioned are at least
their equals if not better, and secondly, that for all Italy are now no
pushovers at home, the away curse is still a problem as Scotland’s 34-10
thrashing of them showed. They pushed England to just the seven points at
Twickenham, but were lucky that Toby Flood butchered an overlap early on in
what was a very below par performance and were also taken apart by Wales in conditions
that were expected to suit.
A typically experienced side - five of the starting XV have
played over 50 tests and Italy field a more experienced starting XV with a
total of 577 caps compared to South Africa's 426 – Italy have thrown yet
another person at the flyhalf problem giving Treviso veteran Alberto Di
Bernardo a debut, while there is a new young centre combination in Luca Morisi
and Alberto Sgarbi to look forward to (along with Parrise of course), but
anything but a heavy defeat would be a surprise and it’s a matter of how far
for the Boks. The handicaps are near 30 points and the home points line 40 and
above, and both make appeal with the home line looking easier.
Advice
1 pt South Africa -25 (10/11 Stan James)
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