The first Lions test was everything we’d hoped that it would
be and more than that, but in the midst of a fine game full of drama and skill,
there were some worrying times for the Lions and the loss of Paul O’Connell,
who had been leading from the front, for the rest of the series, is a crushing
blow. Admittedly Australia had so many injured that flanker Michael Hooper was
forced into the inside centre, but as discussed at length in the outright
preview, their reserves amongst the backline are bettered only by New Zealand
and the likes of Jesse Mogg, Ben Tapuai and co are all serious cover options.
Today’s game against the Melbourne Rebels should be of
relatively little consequence in a normal tour, but the danger of injury means
that callups and changes are still a great possibility – Geoff Parling was set
to be today’s captain but is now an odds on short to start the second test
after Paul O’Connell’s injury – and today’s outfit to face the Melbourne Rebels
is a strong one.
The last Lions game before the first test was that 12-14
defeat to the Brumbies where an upset was the most likely of that seen so far
for the tour, but the key difference between them and now is the class and form
of the Brumbies – who are leading the overall table – and the Rebels, who are
12th, having won just the four games this season with only the
Force, Kings, and Highlanders behind them.
The Rebels have not played since June 7 when they were well
beaten by the Brumbies, but have generally played to the same standard with the
same side that will run out tomorrow, but while having some strong home
performances – beating the Waratahs, Crusaders, and Force, pushing the Chiefs
close at the AAMI stadium for just a few – they look inferior to all but the
Force on this season’s form so far.
The Lions’s front five looks very strong, with the front row
of Ryan Grant, Richard Hibbard and Dan Cole having potential while the backrow
of Lydiate, O’Brien and Faletau contains three players who have had very
successful tours.
The loss to the Brumbies also came with Stuart Hogg
operating at 10, who with all due respect had played no meaningful game since
his school days in that position (the NSW combined doesn’t count) and Owen
Farrell and Conor Murray should link well together as an effective halfback
pairing. With Brad Baritt and Manu Tuilagi as a centre partnership and Sean
Maitland, Simon Zebo and Rob Kearney, there’s more than enough threat for any
upset to be dismissed. The handicap is generally 19 points but the Rebels’ 4
losses have been by margins of 6, 3, 10 and 17 pts, so it doesn’t make the
obvious appeal it does at face value despite the overall strength of the team,
so a dutch of the 11-20 and 21-30 winning margins makes appeal.
Advice
1 pt Lions to win by 11-20 points (13/5 Paddy Power)
1 pt Lions to win by 21-30 points (11/4 Paddy Power)
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