3.45 Royal Ascot (Day 3, Race 3)
Gold Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £198,485
Advice: 0.5 pts each/way Last Train (16/1 Bet365), 0.5 pts
each/way Altano (20/1 Bet365)
Aaim To Prosper: Dual winner of the Cesarawitch who has had
some success jumping, winner twice over hurdles (three miles both times), but only eight in 2011 renewal and not upto
this standard. 
Altano: Won Group 3 Oleander-Rennen over 2m at Hoppegarten
for second year running looking as if he’d enjoy step up in trip; Ahead of Earl
of Tinsdal there, although he benefitted from Earl of Tinsdal (who gave 4lbs)
striking for home far too soon and doubt that will be the case today; That
said, clearly potential to improve for step up in trip again in what might be
better run race and one of the more interesting outsiders for sure. 
Colour Vision: Would be near favourite if coming here in the
form that saw him win tightly contested three way go for the win in this race
last year (good third in Goodwood Cup and then in Prix Du Cadaran) but
lacklustre efforts when nearer last to first the last twice temper enthusiasm
and can’t be backed with confidence. 
Earl of Tinsdal: Dual 1m4f Group 1 winner who beat Johsua Tree
and Vadamar amongst others in the Gran Premio Di Milano before then a good
second to Meandre at Munich time after that; Not quite in same form since but
had looked set to win Olander-Rennen for all but the last furlong on return,
when making all and going clear before being reeled in late; Never looked as if
he wanted 2m4f there but if he can settle better not without his chance and
giving 4lbs to stablemate Altano there; Respected.
High Jink: Big improver last term for step up in trip,
coming second in three Group races including Prix Du Cadaran; Slightly
disappointing return in Sandown Group 3 where he was laboured fourth (hung, as
he did do when second in Cadaran); Would be more suited by this trip than most
in field and still of chief interest here. 
Number Theory: Winner of big Haydock handicap last year and
held his own at higher level since, new career best when second in Sandown
Group 3 latest (chased winner earlier than most);Might have been slightly
flattered and 2m4f a question mark.
Rite of Passage: Winner of this in 2010, a performance which
sets him down as arguably the class act in this race, and beat many reopposing
types here when landing stayers’ event on British Champions Day off big layoff;
Hopeful that one so lightly raced since big win would retain all ability
despite not having had a run this season, worryingly due to fast ground despite
winning on it in 2010; Rain a huge plus but likely to take a major hand
everywhere. 
Saddler’s Rock: Third in this race last year but arguably
should have won had the pace been better or the ground been stronger, and made
amends when winning Goodwood Cup; Not shown best since on multiple occasions
but get the feeling today will bring much better effort and saddle has slipped
in 2m Group 3 in UAE when he’d showed promise over a trip too short beforehand;
Potentially interesting. 
Simenon: Had looked well upto Group class when romping home
in meeting’s two other staying contests last year by combined total of 13
lengths, but never landed a blow and behind several of these when trying Group
company twice afterwards; Possible that 2m too short for him both times and
today’s test will suit a lot after unlucky Chester Cup fourth, but others
preferred here. 
Times Up: As good as any stayer on his day as he showed when
landing pair of Group 2’s last season at York and Doncaster, beating plenty who
are reopposing here; Return (like quite a few) was disappointing in Sandown
Group 3 but had a big penalty and no surprise to see him go well for all that 2m4f
might not suit. 
Vadamar: Classy sort who win 1m4f Group 2 in 2011; No wins
last year but plenty of decent form, although well behind plenty of these in
the Cadaran when he didn’t last 2m4f and don’t see him lasting it today either.
Bigorapher: Progressive last season when stepped upto 1m6f,
closing out with Listed win here and then fourth in 1m6f handicap at Newmarket
last month on return which supplied second and fourth in Tuesday’s Ascot
Stakes; Still a hugely promising type and sure to enjoy 2m4f. 
El Salvador: Useful type who’s been improving with age but
disappointing the last twice in Listed contests and doesn’t look upto something
like this and not a certain stayer. 
Last Train: Blueblooded and still potentially unexposed
French colt who was second in Grand Prix De Paris last year and then third in
Niel afterwards; Needed reappearance run on all weather badly but won Group 3
at Longchamp in April and while third last time was a little disappointing,
soft ground against him and shaped as if he needed even further; Not to be
discounted. 
Model Pupil: Unlucky not to win Chester Vase last year and
shaped as if bigger things were to come when an easy winner of Doncaster
conditions race on return and while he’s been slightly disappointing since, he’s
shaped as if this trip would bring the best out of him; Others still preferred.
Repeater: Only form that entitled him to be here was fourth
in 2012 Doncaster Cup and since disappointed in Yarmouth handicap five days
later and not seen since. 
Top Trip: Maybe wider than one would want; Fifth in Group
1’s on couple of occasions last year but beaten fair and square behind Last
Train in Grand Prix Dr Paris; Strong impression that 1m6f too sharp when just
beaten in Yorkshire Cup and should enjoy today’s trip further. 
Estimate: Earmarked for this race since winning Queen’s Vase
in fine style at this meeting last year, giving impression that she had more to
offer for step up in trip, to defeats afterwards down in trip can be forgiven and
showed what she was all about when taking Sagaro Stakes in truly decisive
fashion latest, well on top at the end and once again exciting when drawing
clear; Bred to stay and should improve for the trip, so rightful favourite.
VERDICT: One of the most competitive renewals in recent
times with a myriad of potential winners on form and many who has limitless
potential for steeping up in trip. Estimate is somewhere in the middle of the
two camps and will take the beating in the attempt to give the Queen a famous
Gold Cup winner, but in such an open race there could well be a ‘shock’ coming
and while I couldn’t put on e off her, it might be best to look elsewhere.
Simenon’s group efforts are a worry for one so short, while Saddlers’ Rock has
yet to show his best for a good while although of all those who were bahsing
heads at the top table last year, he makes most appeal. 2010 winner Rite of
Passage could be best of the market leaders, but it there are a whole host of
those promising to improve for 2m4f, with LAST TRAIN and ALTANO making particular
appeal. Last Train was only a head away from winning a Group 1 last season and
looked sure to enjoy 2m4f on faster ground last time out at Longchamp, while
ALTANO’s finishing burst to beat stablemate of Earl of Tinsdal amongst others
was impressive and with a few front runners in the field, the race could be set
up for one like him.
No comments:
Post a Comment