The first game of what could be a glorious, or infamous, tour for the Lions is far to be the toughest test they’ll face but the men on
the pitch playing today won’t be telling you that due to the sheer intensity of
the weather conditions today. With forecast humidity of between 80-90% and
temperatures above 31C, this could well be the most brutal conditions many of
the players have experienced – with some players losing 3-4KG in an hour during
the week’s training. As a precaution, the game will be stopped twice in each
half for drinks breaks and ice vests will be used to try and cool down players'
body temperatures during the interval.
There have been some worries that a side made of players who
did not contest either of the Pro12 or Premiership final may be rusty today,
and previous tour openers have been underwhelming. A barely progression Western
Australia were brushed aside with a record margin, but a late penalty was
required to salvage a draw from a second string Argentina side and they needed
a late burst of 24 points in 14 minutes to put away a Royal XV in South Africa,
although they won by 12 points in the end.
The Barbarians - who
have had just as little are given a 14 point start and above for today’s game,
which is based mainly on the theoretical superiority the Lions should have in
terms of personnel and also the hefty beating a young England side gave them at
Twickenham. That looks to be a fair line on all the evidence we’ve seen but
today will be a completely different scenario, not least in terms of motivation.
For a start, only our players – Full back turned centre Daly, wing Takudzwa
Ngwenya, centre Casey Laulala and lock Marco Wentzel – remain from that side,
and it’s fair to say that the replacements are a significant upgrade.
Sergio Parisse leads the side out from no 8, and where
Dwyane Peel and James Hook once were, Nick Evans and Dimitri Yachvilli will now
provide expert direction for the Barbaians allowing them to get a far more even
footing in territorial terms, while Daly, Payne, and Ngwenya all have the
potential to break free. However while England cut their second string side
apart using skill and pace, if the Barbarians have any designs on today’s game
they’ll need to at least achieve parity or better at the scrum or breakdown and
unfortunately for them it’s the strongest area of the tourists’ party this
year. The all Welsh backrow of Lydiate, Tipuric and Faletau is capable of
ripping the Barbarians apart, while a front row of Vunipila, Hibbard and Jones
has more than enough power to come out on top at scrum time.
Rustiness – Richie Gray and Alex Cuthbert have not played
rugby for months - may cause them to make a slow start out of the blocks but
Gatland’s teams are never stronger than in the second half and the week’s
conditioning that his contingent have had should see them cope well enough.
With such intense conditions, defenders – forwards especially – with be at
their most tired in the second half and the Lions’ superior personnel – they
can bring on George North, Jamie Heaslip, and Johnny Sexton amongst others –
and it looks fair to say that there might be more points in the second rather
than the first half, so the 5/6 with Bet365 that occurs appears to be the best
bet. The Lions are set a general points
line of 35 – more than fair if they’re able to open up – but a better bet might
be the second half handicap of seven points.
Advice
3 pts more points in second half (5/6 Bet365)
1 pt Lions -7 on second half handicap (4/5 Coral)
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