Saturday, 15 June 2013

Castle Larger series 2013 - Samoa v Italy

Samoa and Italy have been two of the fastest rising teams in World Rugby and their meeting today is sure to attract great neutral interest after both teams’ unbounded progress in the last year.  Just last year, Italy had their best ever finish of fourth in the 6 Nations and their best ever away performance when pushing second placed England to within just eight points, while Samoa’s relentless progress saw them upset Wales in Cardiff while given France a tougher test than Argentina and Australia during last year’s end of season tours.



Ranked at seventh in the world, the Samoans underlined their class once again when beating Scotland last week in convincing style using a typical mix of brute force and skills and flair, although their improvement at the set piece in previous years has been marked and their world ranking of seventh belies their resources – especially given the amount of exiled players such as Manu Tuilagi.


Italy were roundly beaten by South Africa last week although many of the tries came late and facing the huge South African backs will have prepared them well for the physical onslaught they face today provided by threats such as 117 kilogram Alesana Tuilagi, who scored two tries to put down Scottish hopes of a victory last week, Johnny Leota, and captain Paul Williams.


Italy went from 22-0 to 22-10 in the space of a few minutes, underlying the progress made in Italy’s back division in just a few short years, and it’s interesting to see Jacques Brunel making seven changes to his side. The return of fly-half Luciano Oerquera – so impressive against Italy and England in the 6 Nations but also outstandingly poor against Scotland – points to a more creative focus for the side while centres Gonzalo will add their own bulk to a backline that has the richly talented Andrea Masi at fullback, while the return of Castrogiovvani to the front row should give plenty of scrum power.


Today’s test between the two should clearly be a hard and physical one from the start, but Samoa’s recent record against tier 1 sides suggests they’re worthy 8 points favourites. They can cover the line, but with conditions conducive to running rugby and several changes in the Italian backline, Samoa can score at least as many points as they did last week.


Advice



1 pt Samoa to score 27 or more points (5/6 general)
 

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