Samoa and Italy have been two of the fastest rising teams in
World Rugby and their meeting today is sure to attract great neutral interest
after both teams’ unbounded progress in the last year. Just last year, Italy had their best ever
finish of fourth in the 6 Nations and their best ever away performance when
pushing second placed England to within just eight points, while Samoa’s
relentless progress saw them upset Wales in Cardiff while given France a
tougher test than Argentina and Australia during last year’s end of season
tours.
Ranked at seventh in the world, the Samoans underlined their
class once again when beating Scotland last week in convincing style using a
typical mix of brute force and skills and flair, although their improvement at
the set piece in previous years has been marked and their world ranking of
seventh belies their resources – especially given the amount of exiled players
such as Manu Tuilagi.
Italy were roundly beaten by South Africa last week although
many of the tries came late and facing the huge South African backs will have
prepared them well for the physical onslaught they face today provided by
threats such as 117 kilogram Alesana Tuilagi, who scored two tries to put down
Scottish hopes of a victory last week, Johnny Leota, and captain Paul Williams.
Italy went from 22-0 to 22-10 in the space of a few minutes,
underlying the progress made in Italy’s back division in just a few short
years, and it’s interesting to see Jacques Brunel making seven changes to his
side. The return of fly-half Luciano Oerquera – so impressive against Italy and
England in the 6 Nations but also outstandingly poor against Scotland – points
to a more creative focus for the side while centres Gonzalo will add their own
bulk to a backline that has the richly talented Andrea Masi at fullback, while
the return of Castrogiovvani to the front row should give plenty of scrum
power.
Today’s test between the two should clearly be a hard and
physical one from the start, but Samoa’s recent record against tier 1 sides
suggests they’re worthy 8 points favourites. They can cover the line, but with
conditions conducive to running rugby and several changes in the Italian
backline, Samoa can score at least as many points as they did last week.
Advice
1 pt Samoa to score 27 or more points (5/6 general)
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