Royal Ascot 2013 - Coronation Stakes

3.45 Royal Ascot (Day 4, Race 3)

Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Fillies' Group 1) (Rnd) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £216,349

Advice: 1 pt win Big Break (5/1 general), 1 pt win Sky Lantern (6/1 general)

Agent Allison: Showed promise when second in Albany Stakes here last year and then second to Maureen, promising to improve for a mile, so disappointing in 1,000 Guineas latest when she was barely sighted.

Big Break: Looked an extremely promising miler in the making at two, winning Maiden in fine style at Leopardstown and following up stylishly in all aged Group 3 event back there (soft); Extremely promising return and improved when fourth to Just the Judge, where she was two lengths behind having raced from widest draw on seasonal debut, without cover and off the bridle earlier than most, if not all, and only fading late; Draws between her and main rivals reversed today and while she would need some luck, if gaps open, big chance today.

Just The Judge: Sole defeat in 5 runs was when she was nabbed late by Sky Lantern in the 1,000 Guineas and made amends in fine style when a comprehensive winner in Ireland latest, travelling ominously well and always on top late on; Most things went right for her there but 17 of 17 today, which would be big problem around this course, but still expected to make bold showing.

Kenhope: Two soft ground 1m wins in France to start the season properly but wide draw and racing freely did for her in French Guineas; third in Group 2 at Chantilly was promising but others make more appeal today.

Lovely Pass: Much better form in UAE on Tapeta, wining UAE Guineas and then finishing runner-up in 1m2f UAE Oaks; this is much more demanding company today and 1m on turf not suited her so well in the past.

Masarah: Won C&D conditions stakes on reappearance and decent effort when front running in the 1,000 Guineas next time but even then only eighth/tailed off in Irish Guineas.

Maureen: Had looked much more like a sprinter when unlucky second in Newmarket Group 2 as juvenile and impressive winner here to make up for it; Promise in the way she finished Fred Darling (good winner) and 1,000 Guineas (late headway for 6^th) but laboured in Ireland latest and that gives her exposed look.

Mizzava: Done nothing but improve this season, finishing with a flourish when third in Irish 1,000 Guineas trial and no 100/1 shot based on the way she came wide and late to snatch fifth in Irish 1,000 Guineas; Drawn 15 again today which is dampener on her chances.

Ollie Olga: Actually beat Sky Lantern in Goodwood group 3 last year, but not been able to perform to anywhere near her best in two runs since, lifeless when last in Fillies’ Mile and near last in 1,000 Guineas.

Pavlosk: Looked filly of promise when scoring on Newbury debut and then following that up with deeply impressive win in 1m Listed race at York, sprinting clear late having taken up running 2f out on soft ground; This is a totally different test but nothing about way she won suggested that she would struggle upped in class.

Purr Along: Second to one time Guineas favourite Certify in Doncaster Group 2 before being below form on Arc day final start; No start since thanks to cold spring, and hard to think she’ll show her best after such a long time off.

Rehns Nest: Revelation when flying home for second in the Irish Guineas and on that form a similar result’s not impossible, for all the bird had already flown there; Slow start saw her towards rear that day but likely that she won’t have a choice today from 14 which tempers enthuiaism.

Roz: Could never land a blow when second in Fillies’ Mile on last start and since tenth in the 1,000 Guineas and ninth in the Oaks, so very hard to make a case for her properly.

Siyenica: Only seventh of eight in Saint Alary at Longchamp but the impression that she made when produced late to win debut in conditions event at Longchamp (1m, good to soft) in April saw her sent off favourite and pretty sure that’s not the best of her; Surely more to offer and fascinating runner.

Sky Lantern: Steady improver and one of the best juveniles last year, when winning Moyglare Stakes in fine style before Breeders’ Cup disappointment; Second on return in Nell Gwyn when looking as she’d have improved for that and duly did when landing 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, moving down Just The Judge from midfield having been a little keen early and ending up well on top despite tight margin; Wide draw no help to her today and doesn't have the advantage of a run over Just The Judge however, but still a class act and must have a chance.

Snow Queen: Had a lot of racing but still progressive and made late ground to be fifth in 1,000 Guineas, although disappointing in Ireland latest and well held on all lines of form.

Viztoria: Won three from four races, making a striking impression when winning two heavy ground 6f races by combined total of 15 lengths (surprise when beaten in French Group 2 at backend); Dotted up on reappearance at Curragh and if handling the faster ground, likely to be thereabouts.

VERDICT: A race big on both quality and quantity, with Just the Judge a worthy favourite after her Irish 1,000 Guineas success, a deserved win seeing how close she came to winning at Newmarket. SKY LANTERN was a deserved winner when coming to catch her late through, and if able to drop in and gain a good position from a nightmare draw of 16 – she can turn around an extremely frustrating week around for Richard Hughes and Hannon. With such a big field however, it might pay to back one drawn high and low, and few make more appeal than BIG BREAK, who had little left in the Irish Guineas after being caught wide from the widest draw in the Irish Guineas but was impressive when fourth that day and can make amends for that. In a quality field, the best of the rest could be Pavlosky or Siyenica, who are both equally promising.