The general thinking in the aftermath of the Lions’ easy win
to start their Tour of Australia – although the only thing that was easy about
it was the end score – was that today’s match against the Western Force would
be their first real test of the tour, but the unfortunate secluding of two games
in four days for Mick Foley’s side has seen a much weaker side than had been
anticipated facing a completely changed touring XV.
With seven uncapped players, and the wingers Corey Brown and
Dane Haylett-Petty, centres Chris Tuatara-Morrison and Ed Stubbs, hooker James
Hilterbrand and full-back Sam Christie all accounting for just 20 Super Rugby
appearances between them, while Brown and Tutatara-Morrison are yet to play in
the Super 15, it’s fair to say that this is a far weaker side than could have
been imagined had they had ‘ideally, a week between games rather than four
days’, even with the presence of Wallabies back-rower Matt Hodgson, the
experienced scrum-half Brett Sheehan and international tighthead prop Salesi
Ma'afu.
The Force, one of many sides Robbie Deans’s hopes to see
weaken the Lions and ‘take them apart limb by limb’, could easily have
presented a much tougher test than the
one facing them tomorrow. The Force have won just three games in Super Rugby
this season, but two of those were victories against the Reds in Perth and the Crusaders
on home soil by 7 and two points respectively, while they beat the Highlands
thanks to a late Jayden Hayward penalty at the weekend. Despite holding the
worst tackle success rate in the tournament – at just 85% - the Force have only
lost by more than 12 points just once this season, impressive considering that
they’re the most toothless attack on stats, scoring just 233 points (21 tries) in 14 games so far this campaign,
They may well have – and could still – present a much
tougher test than the Barbarians did on Saturday, given the challenges faced in
getting a squad together as such short notice are not an issue for the Force,
but with such a weakened side the matter of how far has been extended from a 20
to a 50 point question. The original handicap was just 18 points, but had gone
upto 25 by the end of Monday following team news and is now as high as 40 in
places. In theory it should be easily passable for this completely new side,
which boasts the first choice Irish halfback pairing of Conor Murray and Johnny
Sexton, along with a backrow that places much emphasis upon mobility, through
Jamie Heaslip, Sean O’Brien and the more winger than flanker Tom Croft, along
with what many presume will be the test back three of Halfpenny, Bowe and
North, while also trying Manu Tuilangi inside Brian O’Driscoll, but facing a
provincial side will be a different matter towards the Barbarians and while it
should be ‘easy’, the Lions may have to work harder for their points here early
on.
Warren Gatland’s mantra and coaching has always led towards
sides being more effective in the second half and it was no surprise to see the
conditioning measures that his side had taken come to fruition in Hong Kong’s
sweltering heat late on and with the Western Force lacking bench experience,
the class of the tourists may come through more in the second half, and Coral
and Ladbroke’s 20 point handicap looks to be more reasonable than the 40 point
start given to the Force overall. The Force have led at half time in 5 of 6
home games but been outscored by at least 3 points after the break in all of
them, while the Lions scored 6 second half tries on Saturday.
Advice
3 pts Lions -20 on 2nd half handcap (10/11 Coral,
Ladbrokes)
1 pt Lions to score 28 or more 2nd half points (5/6
Ladbrokes)
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