Criterium Du Dauphine 2013

British Cycling and Team Sky suffered a hammer blow when Bradley Wiggins’s bid to make the Tour De France was ruined by his knee injury, but in Chris Froome they have arguably the hottest property in Grand Tour cycling and he can finish a picture perfect preparation for a Tour De France he is now certain to lead with victory in the race’s dress rehearsal, the Criterium Du Dauphine.

Often the last big dress rehearsal for the tour and very much a mirror of the race itself, this year’s Dauphine is heavy on climbing given the Tour’s brutal final week. There are two pure summit finishes this year on Stage 5 and 8, although Stage 7’s cat 3 finish comes after the ascent of the Category 1 Col Du Noyer, with is a full 11 KM of ascending, which makes it in theory three stages that could be offered to the pure climbers. This all comes after the first major GC sortup, the 32KM long time trial from Villars Des Domes to Parce Des Oiseaux – which takes place on literally pan flat roads from start to finish with not a moment’s serious climbing or descending along the way.

It’s a route which is made for Froome, who has been in near unbeatable form this year, winning the Tour of Oman, the Criterium International and the Tour de Romandie in style while being unlucky to lose Tirreno Adriatico when his traditional climbing style deserted him on the horrendously sharp ascents of the Sant’Elipido climb, while he found himself overgeared and underclothed for the gradient and conditions respectively – the winner that day was domiant Giro D’Italia champion Vincenzo Nibali. In winning those three stage races, Froome has taken three stages, two of them summit finishes, while also gaining significant amounts of time that won him both the Tour of Oman and Tour De Romandie.

In winning two of those three major stage races, he beat Alberto Contador convincingly each time, by 27 seconds in Oman, and then 29 seconds in Tierreno Adricatico. Taking time from him on pretty much every possible occasion. This may owe in part towards Contador building towards a peak while Froome races to win, much like Sky did with Bradley Wiggins last year, and it will be interesting to see what a months training has done for his conditions (by all reports he’s slimmed a touch). However, Contador has never reached his peak here in the past, and it’s hard to imagine him being on top form here even with  Michael Rogers, Jesus Hernandez and Chris Anker Sorensen all here to provide assistance for the three big climbing days.

Secondly, Contador is vulnerable to Froome in the 32KM time trial based on his losses of a minute to Tony Martin at Besain during the Vuleta Pais Vasco, and 15 seconds to Froome over just 9.2km at Tirreno Adritiaco – a statement that goes for the rest of the field as well given how only Tony Martin and Ariaoni Malori beat Froome in the flat power test at the end of the Tour of Romandie. With so much in his favour once again, assume that he avoids accidents and ill form, it’s extremely hard to envisage defeat and he;s worth a near maximum bet, and also worth a wager to win todat and the Tour De France at 5/2 with Skybet, a price that may look generous by the end of the week.

Richie Porte, now the established superdomestique to Froome, can take a big hand but will be aiding Froome more than riding for himself, while Froome has looked twice his superior on all the occasions they’ve raced with eachoter Alejandro Valverde, looking to form a twin attacking duo of limitless potential with Nairo Quintana at the Tour, is twice a winner here and should be approaching something close to top form, but he has haemorrhaged time against the clock so far and is likely to do so once again, so may be better looking for stage victories like the lumpy but short finish for stage 1 today.

The same can be said of Joaquim Rodgriguez, presented with the best chance he’ll have to win the Tour De France, as good as he’s ever been climbing and at the ripe age of 34, but his time trialling is still an Achilles heel for one so good going uphill – once again – look for him when the going gets tough, although he is tempting for a Top 3 finish with the summit finishes likely to provide big time gaps. Samuel Sanchez ended the Giro D’Italia in fine form but was distance on most of the summit finishes there. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has a remarkable consistency of finishing just outside the podium over here but there's been little to suggest he's going to do any different this week.

Michael Kwiatowski has shown some fine bursts this season, but lost enough time going uphill in Tireeno Adriaitco to suggest the same would happen here, and Andrew Talansky's Paris-Nice form may not be enough to land this on a line through Richie Porte - in any case, he was a long way behind Froome at the tour of Romandie, 

Advice

10 pts win Chris Froome (10/11 general)

2 pts Chris Froome To Win Dauphine and Tour de France (5/2 Skybet)

Advice (Stage 1)

1 pt each/way Edvald Bosson Hagen (8/1 general)

1 pt each/way Thor Hushovd (33/1 Bet Victor)