The Lions stand within 80 minutes of history today, but for
all that they have the lead today in the series betting is meant to be an
application of reason and sense and on the evidence last week Warren Gatland’s
men should be playing to save the series rather than take it.
Such are Lions tours – and the nature of the biggest test
matches – that this can be said of many games, but the simple fact of the
matter is that last week’s first test turned into a game that Australia lost
rather than the Lions winning, and this week once gets the feeling that such
luck won’t be coming their way this weekend.
In a game that was very much the tight contests that many
hard predicted, two crucial factors made the difference; The flyhalf and the goal
kicking. While James O’Connor had a very poor game pulling the strings for
Australia, and neither him or Kurtley Beale could land crucial penalty
attempts, Leigh Halfpenny’s exemplary tour off the tee continued and he missed
only one kick at goal from all his attempts, and Johnny Sexton had a fine and
measured game with the limited ball he got after Mike Phillips’ numerous failed
sniping and pick and go attempts.
While O’Connor is a questionable choice to lead the backline
once again, he won’t be taking the kicking duties and wouldn’t have been last
week, although the curse of injury towards Australian backs reared its ugly
head once again. Brumbies playmaker Christian Leali'ifano – who would have
kicked and has outstanding tee stats – was knocked out and Berrick Barnes
suffered the same fate two minutes before halftime, meaning that Michael Hooper
had to be drafted back into inside centre – the same gap that flew open to Alex
Cuthbert which saw the Lions take a decisive lead.
Simply said, as wonderful as the first test was to watch, it’s
a miracle that the Lions won at all, and had they taken their points off the
tee, they would have won by a significant margin.
With both sides similar priced one week later – Australia
are shorter now but the handicaps are generally the same – the question has to
be what’s changed since. For Australia, Kurtley Beale’s inclusion – along with
a resurgence in the pack from - bought the Australians roaring back into touching
distance and while he will be forever remembered for missing that fateful kick –
should the Lions win today - his presence from the start is a major boost, and
the depth in reserve that have ensured an excellent second kicker and fullback
in Jesse Mogg and a class centre in Rob Horne.
Chris Pollock’s refereeing was obviously helpful from an
Australian perspective, as his preference for ball retention stopped Sam
Warburton from getting involved – and Michael Hooper from doing likewise – but both
sides may have issues with Craig Joubert. Willing to allow a contest at the
breakdown – not one which is certain to go the way of the Lions given Australia’s
outstanding Michael Hooper – his no tolerance approach to scrum time is his
most famous feature. Famous for having awarded 28 penalties or free-kicks,
resulting in a Test record 18 penalty kicks at goal, in Wales’s 6 Nations win
against Scotland, there will be no time for error or early engagement from
either side. Today’s contest won’t be so stop start – the Welsh searched
Joubert to the the point where they had calculated in advance precisely how
much time would elapse between Joubert saying the words “touch” and “engage”
before a scrum – but it does place critical importance upon the performance of
a front row which may rely heavily upon Adam Jones, after Mako Vunipola had a
poor cameo last week in the set piece.
The Lions should get more joy at the breakdown this week,
but the forward battle is expected to be even and of more consequence to the
Lions may be the addition of Ben Youngs to the starting lineup after Mike
Phillips was so disappointing last week. The quicker service that Youngs will
provide to Johnny Sexton and the backline will mean that the Lions get far
faster service today and are sure to be a bigger threat today.
The two sides seem simply impossible to split on all
evidence seen so far, and much like last week this could be a one score game –
the Lions and Australia are 9/2 and 5/1 to win by 1-5 points and that seems the
best value.
Advice
1 pt Lions to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)
1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points (5/1 general)
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