When
Bradley Wiggins was being serenaded with applause from all sides upon the
Champs Elysses last year on like a golden day for British sport, it could have
been easily forgotten that so much of the success had been down to Chris
Froome, who now gets his chance to make his name in history by winning the 100th Edition
of the Tour De France, and all the signs point towards him doing so.
Arguably
the strongest overall rider last year - Froome was a clear winner of the race
by three minutes without Wiggins despite losing a minute in the prologue -and
definitely the strongest when the race went uphill, Froome has since come into
his own as a stage racer and now stands as Sky’s undisputed leader for the race
after a saga that had threatened to overshadow the team’s performance with
Bradley Wiggins now sadly unable to defend his title due to ill form and
illness.
This
year’s Tour route – and tour in general – is a far tougher test than last
year’s affair was and seems as made for Froome as much as last year’s was made
for Wiggins, with one of the most testing last weeks’ in history taking in a
Pyrenees’ triple header, including the double climb of L’Alpe D’huez, and while
it also boasts a fantastic climbing time trial on Wedensday the 17th with
two category 2 climbs and descents – not forgetting the return of Ax-3
Domaines’ and Mont Ventoux before.
Without
a stage race win to his name before this season, Froome has now won 4 of the 5
stage races he’s entered this season in convincing style, with his one defeat –
at Tirreno Adriatico where he found himself overgeared and undersupported on
the brutal 20% climbs of Sant’Elipido, with only Giro D’Italia Champion
Vincenzo Nibali able to beat him over the course of the week. Elsewhere, he has
won the Tour of Oman, Criterium International, Tour de Romandie and Criterium
Du Dauphine in style, showing little to no moments of worry regardless of the
opposition, especially his supposed main rival Alberto Contador.
One
of the finest stage racers of his generation, and possibly all time, Contador
is already a legend of the Tour De France with three wins to his name (for
argument’s sake, we are not taking away any titles from him), and the only
Grand Tour rider here to have won all three of cycling’s Grand Tour.
On
his return from suspension, Contador used an audacious attack to snatch what
had looked like a lost cause in the Vuelta when beating off fellow Spanish
climbers Alejandro Valverde and Joaquin Rodriguez, with Froome over 10 minutes
behind in a well beaten fourth. Given the mountain heavy route of the Vuelta –
with very few transitional or flat stages and several high summit finishes –
that performance and his others obviously shows his class, but Froome went to
Spain as an afterthought after a huge Tour and Olympic effort in both the road
race and time trial, leaving him exhausted and vulnerable on the several sharp
climbs to specialist climbers who exposed his tiredness after the first week.
While
this year’s tour is one for the specialist climbers, Froome – who has been the
best climber in stages races this year comes here having been
trained to peak through racing and winning just like Bradley Wiggins and should
be at his physical peak.
Improvement
is expected of Contador – who has been in solid form despite winning just one
stage and been involved in nearly every mountain top finish that he’s raced so
far, while he was only beaten so far on the climb to Risoul after trying to
help Michel Rodgers, part of a strong support team - who was once a short
priced favourite for this but has drifted as a result of what has been a
subdued early season preparation, most notably when finishing 4 minutes behind
Froome in the Dauphine after losing 3.37 to him on the fast 32KM time trial.
Contador
complained that he was suffering with allergies on that day and also that he’s
nowhere near his true form, both of which may be true, but the pure fact of the
matter is that he’s yet to beat Froome in any meeting this year, will have to
break him and his support squad to the tune of over a minute, is extremely
vulnerable in the time trials to those who can gain an advantage at this
discipline. We could see a different man this month, but all the evidence
points to Froome being the man to beat and there isn’t a single person in the
top 20 of the betting that he hasn’t beaten over the past year. Obviously
Cycling is open to all fortunes and there are the risks attached of illness and
injury, but assuming he stays upright he is the outstanding choice for tour
success and while we already have 5/2 ante post, the 4/5 that Paddy Power and
Bet Victor are offering is worth strong support, with those who are keen on
Contador advised to take the evens about him without Froome – a race that looks
very open.
When
the initial route was announced I advised getting on Joaquin Rodriguez and have
done so again twice since, and while this is his best chance of a yellow
jersey, the achillies heel that is his time trialling looks set to prevent him
from launching a serious challenge for the yellow jersey. One of the
finest climbers going, Rodriguez could and arguably should have won two of the
three Grand Tours last year, but lost both in the final stages, finding himself
exposed by Contador’s sheer power in the Vuelta, having previously lost the
Giro on the final days’ time trial.
In
solid form this season – he’s been 4th at the Tour of Oman,
fifth at Tirreno, and second in the Volta a Catalunya while showing good form
in the Spring classics – he should be building towards a bold showing, but he
haemorrhaged time – more than 3 minutes – to Froome on the flat Contre La
Montre in the Dauphine and while Stage 11’s profile is a little lumpier than
that and should have less pronounced gaps, it’s still hard to see him gaining
back that time through the tour and he’s a top 5 or top 10 shout in all
reality.
Fellow
Spanish climber Aljenadro Valverde took an age to find any sort of form last
year but did win the final summit finish before a fine Vuelta campaign, where
he actually took a fine second after going head to head with Contador and
Rodriguez. A return to that sort of form would give him a good chance and he
has shown excellent consistency when the
road goes uphill this year, so has an outside podium shot if improving on what
he’s shown so far and limiting his losses after stage 11, especially with an
exciting team to partner him (more about that below).
Tejay
Van Garderen is a truly top class prospect who has improved since his fifth
last year – especially in terms of pacing himself through long time trials –
but winning in Europe has been very difficult for him and the presence of Cadel
Evans as team leader may shackle him at crucial times like it did last year. He’s
well worth supporting at 4/6 in a match bet with his team mate – Evans is now
36 and rode one of the most brutal Giro D’Italia campaigns in years to its end –
but the white jersey once again will be his main prize.
He
faces extremely stiff competition for that prize from bright new thing Nairo
Quinatana (centre, with Porte left Talansky right, and Van Garderen in white), the Colombian rocket who’s taken the world of cycling by storm and
who has predicted for big things by many since last year, where he impressed
hugely with his Stage 6 win at the Dauphine when beating off the best of the climbers
there, and while he was just 38th at last year’s Vuelta, he’s
clearly taking a huge amount from that this year and come into his own in a
campaign that has bought him his first stage race success in the Vuelta al Pais
Vasco, supplementing his second in the Volta a Catalunya and 15th at Paris Nice. His climbing talents
have always been known, but he beat all but Tony Martin when winning Pais Vasco
and had several classy riders behind there.
This
year’s route should hold no fears for him and his aggressive style of racing
could really pay dividends on climbs such as Mont Ventoux and Ax-3 Domaines,
and while he might not have the altitude advantages that those from Colombia
can call upon, he could well be the one to surprise the non-cycling public with
a high finish and could break into the top 10.
Frenchmen
Thiabut Pinot and Pierre Rolland, who both reached the Top 10 last year, should
enjoy this year’s course – which places very little emphasis on time trialling
and everything on climbing and descending, skills which both are adept at, and
both merit support for the Top 10 although Pinot makes a little more appeal
given his stronger form this season – having beaten Rolland twice recently.
Runner
up in 2009, 10 and 11, Andy Schleck is one of the most deserving cyclists of a
Grand Tour win but his inability to time trial has cost him dearly before and
his chance looks to have gone based on his injury troubles after a heavy crash last
year before the tour. His best overall result is 25th – that at the
Tour of California – and the only bet of any value with him in it is Jurgen Van
De Broeck – fourth last year – to beat him over the three weeks with Ladbrokes,
with seems astonishing.
With
so many of Froome’s rivals having weak points, Froome’s main man Richie Porte
actually becomes of podium interest. Best known for putting the pedal to the
metal and dropping climbers as if they weren’t there last year on the highest
climbs last year, Porte has come into his own in the same way that Chris Froome
has this year, winning Paris-Nice in stunning style, taking dominant wins in
the uphill time trial and summit finish, before finishing runner up to Froome
in the Criterium International and Dauphine.
There’s
always a worry that he could burst after setting too high a tempo for Froome,
but he’s one of the best climbers in the race and is also a superb time trials
who could make significant gains into the pure climbers on Stage 11, while his
strong uphill time trial form is an excellent point for Stage 17’s test. Porte’s
not expected to win – unless the worst should happen to Chris Froome. Porte has
beaten most if not all of the market leaders, and can still be found at 7/1
with three places in a market without Chris Froome, and in a market without
Froome and Alberto Contador, he’s 11/2 with Bwin, which has the shape of great
value.
Advice – Yellow Jersey
20
pts Chris Froome (4/5 Bwin, Paddy Power)
1
pt Richie Porte w/o Froome or Contador (11/2 Bwin)
1
pt each/way Richie Porte w/o Chris Froome (7/1 Bet365, Paddy Power)
Advice
– Match bets
4 pts Tejay Van Garderen to beat Cadel Evans (8/11 Bet365)
5
pts Jurgen Van Den Broeck to beat Andy Schleck (8/13 Ladbrokes)
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