Revenge can be a long time coming in sport but some things
are worth waiting for, and to say the 12 years that have passed since the
British and Irish Lions lost the 2001 test series against Australia have been
long and agonising ones for the red army would be quite the understatement.
2005 and 2009 bought trips to two of the great recent sides in New Zealand and
South Africa, with 2009’s last gap defeat in one of the great test matches
being an absolute heartbreaker, and thus making it 16 years without a test
series win.
The Lions have been a staple of rugby for 125 years, but
another defeat, some would say, is putting the tradition in danger – with
another trip to New Zealand coming in 4 years; Some would say that defeat is
not an option.
 |
| Will Genia will hope to follow in the footsteps of Frank Gregan (pictured) |
Yet for Australia, this series is also pivotal for the
sport. Rugby Union in Australia has been fighting a long battle against its
league counterpart, the two battling for resources of both players, fans and
finances) with interest generally splitting between the two camps despite the
huge interest in the game – this series sold out in just 15 minutes and is
attracting even more interest than a rugby World Cup would. The Australian
Rugby Union is also facing some crippling financial fortunes, with even this
series only going some way to fill a gaping hole in the books, and with England
and Wales in a pool for a foreign World Cup next year, this represents the
biggest chance that this generation of Wallabies will have for a landmark
success.
Bookmakers have taken the view that the necessity of a
series win, alongside the perceived weakness of this Wallaby side in relation
to the tasks that the Lions have has since 1999, and made Gatland’s side very
strong favourites at 8/13. That is a
position that has to be argued with.
Firstly, while we’re guessing at this, the idea that this
Wallaby side isn’t a vintage outfit seems to have come from two areas, the
first being the fact that they’re not world champions as South Africa were in
2009 and Australia were the last time the Lions came to visit. This ignores the
fact that Australia played winners New Zealand at Eden Park, and also the
excellent record that Australia have against all four of the home nations.
The second reason for this price is the perceived
superiority of Gatland’s men towards Australia but a quick look at the facts
tells us that this is wrong. Since 2001, Australia have won 12, drawn 1 and
lost 8 of their 21 home games – four being to New Zealand, one to South Africa
one to Samoa and one most notable to Scotland when the rain was pouring and a
second string side played, leaving them with a 5-2 win record against British
sides at home.
The Wales side that has won the 6 Nations provides the spine
of tomorrow’s first test side and plenty of the bench as well, but the Welsh
have lost their last eight against the Wallabies and 17 of their last 20 games.
The Rugby Championship was hardly an impressive one for the
Wallabies but they were still ahead of South Africa despite an ever growing
injury list which did not stop them from beating both England and Wales on tour
last year missing the likes of Will Genia, James Horwill and James O’Connor.
The side that faces The Lions has an embarrassment of riches
in the backline compared to then with multiple playmaking options, while the
presence of Michael Hooper and Ben Mowen – also a lineout specialist to tackle
opposition ball – means that the breakdown battle swill be equal and there
should be plenty of opportunity for the attacking play the Wallabies thrive on.
The 6 Nations this year was not an impressive renewal – only
England and Wales performed with any credit, while Wales owed much of their
victory to an under par England performance at scrum time in Cardiff and all
round attacking failures – but a strong touring party has made it to the first
test.
 |
| Brian O'Driscoll's famous length of the field Gabba try.Typical of the man, it will not be a fond memory if he fails to win the series |
Surprisingly, the 3-0 defeat for Wales might have had an
impression on the markets given the tightness of the series which had a
combined score of 72-61 over the three tests – this Lions side will be able to
call on one of the world’s premier flyhalves in Johnny sexton rather than Rhys
Priestland, Tom Croft, Paul O’Connell, and Tom Youngs, all crucial changes
which should make a difference. However to suggest that difference should make
them odds on for the series takes a lot of faith looking at the cold facts, and
much of it would place a heavy reliance upon the Lions being better equipped to
make the fast start for the first test and the advantage that they should have
in the forwards. While a test series win is a realistic aim and a fantastic
opportunity, there’s no reason to think the gap between the tourists and
Wallabies is anywhere near as big as the odds suggest.
With only one whitewash in 6 tours since the three test tour
became the normal format – and that being the tour to NZ in 2005 – the 2-1
series score is the agreed outright market selection but at 2 and 3/1 both look
short and a flyer on an Australian whitewash at 10/1 with Bet Victor made most
appeal at the time of writing out of that market.
Skybet go 5/6 on both sides scoring a try in all three
tests, and with the breakdown battle so even and both sides able to field
strong backlines, that makes a lot of appeal. It happened the last time the two
clashed in 2001, and in two of the three tests in 2005 and 2009. This series
should be much closer than the New Zealand tour, while South Africa did not
chase a whitewash hard when the job was done four years ago. This series should
go down to the wire, and even if not, the sides are so closely matched that it’s
harder not to imagine it happening even if one side takes it in two tests, and
feelings of revenge and the motivation for a whitewash will always run high.
Advice
6 pts Both sides to score a try in all three tests (5/6
Skybet)
No comments:
Post a Comment