Derby 2013

4.00 Epsom

Investec Derby (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £782,314

Ante Post Advice: 1 pt each/way Battle of Marengo (7/1 general, 30^th April)

Advice: 1 pt each/way Mars (16/1 general), 1 pt Mars +6.5 lengths on h’cap  (9/1 Hills)

Battle of Marengo: Unbeaten since his debut, winning all 5 subsequent starts including Beresford Stakes and Ballysax/Derrinstown Stud trials; (beat Sugar Boy, who went onto win Group 3 classic trial when beating two opposing rivals here in Ballysax; That the preferred route for Ballydoyle middle distance horses) Didn’t impress many when winning 4 runner Derrinstown latest but the race turned into a sprint and won’t be left in front so far from home this time; Plenty to like about his chances upto 1m4f for first time.

Chopin: Very promising winner at Frankfurt on second and 2yo start and backed that up with wide-margin success in Group 3 at Krefeld; Hard to gauge what he beat in context of today but couldn’t have done it any easier and second’s run in German 2,000 is promising at least; Trip, Track and class all questions but respected nevertheless.

Dawn Approach: Flagbearer of top class sire and part namesake New Approach (winner in 2008) who was outstanding juvenile of last season, winning 6 race including Coventry, National and Dewhurst stakes, but the most impressive he’s been visually when romping to 2,000 Guineas success at Newmarket; That cements his status as the class horse in the race, but main (and only) worry for many is whether one so precious (won first race of Irish season last year) and so speedily bred on dam’s side will get home in what’s sure to be a fiercely run race, but never stronger than at the end of his guineas and his sire had no trouble doing it; The one to beat in no uncertain terms.

Festive Cheers: Made no impact on debut but clearly much better than that and won AW maiden in fine style on second start; Cracking return when third in Prix Hocquart, looking for all the world as if he’s be even better over 1m4f, but this a far tougher test and may be sacrificed to make this a well run affair.

Flying The Flag: Didn’t get the best of runs when ninth in French Guineas but landed no blow in Ireland and here to set the pace, as he did in National Stakes when one bolted well clear.

Gaileo Rock: Deeply impressive maiden winner who couldn’t rally land a blow in Autumn Stakes (form that puts him behind Libertarian on a line through Trading Leather) and then third on return when putting all his best work in at the finish of Bet365 Classic trial; Obvious potential for 1m4f but that form put him behind Battle of Marengo, who comfortably beat winner Sugar Boy on his seasonal debut.

Libertarian: Not put a foot wrong in three starts, held up and carried wide when fourth in Classic trial and in the end a ready winner of the one of the most prominent Derby trials in Dante; Looked a weaker race than most this year, but line through the second Trading Leather reads well after that one’s Irish 2,000 Guineas third and sure to stay, so of interest.

Mars: Carried giant reputation after deeply impressive 7f AW win last July (stablemate won as he liked next time out but couldn’t land a blow in the Dewhurst), when favourite for this until bigger two year old races were run last season; Never able to land a blow in Guineas from off the pace but that just his second start and huge potential to improve for experience and trip if he takes to it; Can’t have seen the best of him yet.

Mirsaale: Well on top in the Epsom trial run here on seasonal reappearance but all previous form suggests he’s here to make up numbers, and never able to land a blow in Newmarket sales race on last two year old start (second time Ghurair has beaten him).

 

Ocean Applause: Hopeless task for maiden after sixteen tries.

Ocovango: Unbeaten in three starts, winning with a little more in hand than margin suggested on each occasion, most visually impressive in Prix Francois Mathet before beating Bravodino with much less in hand than when pair made their debuts last November in the Greffulhe; Drawn many comparisons with Visindar and 2011 winner Pour Moi, for all that those colts were far more impressive in terms of style and on the ratings; Demands respect.

Ruler of the World: Bred to improve for racing and distance, and underlined that impression with Curragh maiden win (front two well clear), and then again when running away with Chester Vase latesr; Little to beat in either of those two races, but already clear that he’s a stayer and will never have a test to suit him more than today; Should be coming late, but others preferred although may be one to keep and eye on in running.

VERDICT: A solid, and fascinating renewal. If Champion 2yo and wide margin 2,000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach stays the trip for what’s likely to be an extremely fiercely run race, then the rest may well be paying for places but the extremely speedy damline means that it’s not a certainty despite his relaxed style of racing and at the price it’s a risk. Ante post tip Battle of Marengo has his chance and should enjoy a well run race on quick ground, while Ruler of the World will also enjoy a well run race, but MARS was seen to be Ballydoyle’s number one hope for this by many before and after his maiden win and he has no end of potential to improve on his Guineas sixth, which was only his second run and seasonal reappearance, which suggests that he’s got immense physical improvement still to come for that run. Of the others, Ocovango makes most appeal ahead of Chopin and Libertrian.