Haskell Stakes 2011

10.43 Monmouth Park

Haskell Invitational Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £384,615

Pick: Shackleford (win)

Coil: Had a three-race win streak broken in Swaps Stakes when he took a lead into the stretch only to be caught by a head at the wire in his first try at nine furlongs (giving 6lbs to second); Working very well of late and expected to improve again, so serious chance for trainer who dominates this event  (won this race in his last four tries and has placed in seven of eight).

Joe Vann: Impressive when running out an easy winner of the Illinois Derby and trouble at start cost him badly when forth in Peter Pan Stakes but no answer when challenged in Matt Winn Stakes and passed over here.

Pants On Fire: Suffered rubbish trip when a well beaten sixth behind Much Macho Man in the Risen Star Stakes, and impressed when using tactical early speed to hold better position when reversing form in Louisiana Derby; Bled from lungs in Derby and can do better here although nearly impossible to split him with Belmont winner for same connections.

Concealed Identity: Benefit of an overly strong pace when in Pimlico’s local Preakness prep, the $75,000 Federico Tesio Stakes; Unplaced in Preakness and had no answer to Pants On Fire last time out (2lbs worse off) so hard to fancy today.

Shackleford: Ran Dialed In to a head off a very strong gallop (which he set) in the Florida Derby, and underlined that effort when fourth in Kentucky Derby; Somehow managed to set fractions of 22.69, 46.87, 1:12.01, 1:37.22, & 1:56.47 but still win Preakness Stakes, and no shame in being unable to do the same in Belmont; Can make a bold bid back at best trip.

Ruler On Ice: Has been consistent, with 2 wins, 2 seconds, and 1 third-place finish from his last 5 races; Third in the Sunland Derbyn & 3-2 favourite in the Tesio Stakes, but sprung a shock when winning the Belmont Stakes; Seemed improved for the step up to 12 furlongs there and had a lot fall right for him that day.

JJ’s Lucky Train: Won two of three starts as a juvenile at Monmouth but Bay Shore win hasn’t been followed up this season and others preferred up in trip and class.

Astrology: Astrology: Made a winless but good start to 2011, having run second to Twice the Appeal in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby on March 27 on his seasonal debut, and again to Adios Charlie in the Grade 2 Jerome at Aqueduct on April 23; Career best third in Preakness followed by odds on failure last time, so passed over here.

VERDICT: SHACKLEFORD couldn’t stay the 12 furlongs in the Belmont but sets a good standard on his Preakness win and should prove hard to back at his best trip, having had 50 days to recover from the hard race he’ll have had there. The progressive Coil should make another bold bid, while it’s desperately hard to split Kelly Breen’s pair with Pants On Fire just getting the vote at this trip.