Day 2 was more successful than day 1 of the July Festival
thanks to Instance’s easy win in the Fillies handicap but it was still not
quite there thanks to Interobil missing out on the places in the Cherry Hinton
(having still posted a more than creditable effort) and then the farcically slow
early pace of the Falmouth Stakes which saw Saphresa get beaten by a more than
reversible margin. She’s a quality mare who will more than make up for that unfortunate
reverse although we may well have to wait a good while for that opportunity.
While we all moan about a slow pace, full credit should go
to those who manage to make the best of it and Tom Queally, who receives so much
stick it’s unbelievable (his ride on Frankel may have been poorly judged but he
won) and after his horrible time on Vita Nova in the Lancashire Oaks he
deserved a big win to make up for it and this was a perfectly timed ride to
land a big prize that makes this half sister to Passage Of Time a massively
valuable broodmare prospect.
We also shouldn’t forget the brilliant training of Sir Henry
Cecil, who’s resurgence has been one of the prominent feel good stories in
racing of the last few years and to see him pick up a “bonus” Group 1 race such
as this will be music to the ears of many.
Today actually offers one of the best day’s racing seen in a
long time. Sounds perfect, but with one small snag – It’s too much for one
Saturday. Far too much. Too much action is being shoehorned into a narrow
three-hour window and it’s hopeless for not only those in the industry but also
those who are watching r planning to attend the race meeting.
Obviously some people will love the idea of being able to
either watch, bet on, or go to the July Cup day now but the John Smith’s Cup was
a more than suitable headline event and this could turn out to be a case “if
it’s not broken don’t fix it”.
Over to York, and onto a quality triple header that is
highlighted by the aforementioned event, the John Smith’s Silver Cup (2.40). Mark
Johnston has had as good a season as ever and his Fox Hunt will rightly be a
popular choice having won big Handicaps at Epsom and Royal Ascot and he should
stay this trip with ease but it’s Eternal Heart who makes the most appeal. He showed
real battling qualities when winning the Edinburgh Cup at Musselburgh on his
second last start to complete a hat – trick and his third in the Queen’s Vase
might not have been a progression but the slight drop down in trip will be good
for him. He’s racing off 95 but Johnston horses can cope with rising weights
and he’s getting tons of weight from everything.
Also, I can’t resist having a second pick in Rock A Doodle
Doo. An improving 4yo, he followed up his close Epsom second with impressive
last to first surge at Ascot, getting there with a perfectly timed challenge.
The same tactics backfired in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap when he found
himself shuffled back to last at the beginning of the straight and he got blocked
off on multiple occasions before somehow taking fourth with a late surge. The
longer trip would have suited that day and today he can go very close to making
amends. There are about 10 horses you could have a chance to but the above two
are the only ones I’d be happy to back.
The phrase “Handicap good thing” is been thrown around a lot
recently and the latest horse on the list is Roger Varian’s rapidly progressive
and lightly raced Pekan Star, who has seen the racecourse only 3 times in as
many seasons but put up a performance as good as any when he overcame trouble
in running to score over C&D in May. That form has been working out well
since but this is still one big step up and at 4/1 he makes no appeal from a
betting perspective.
Beachfire is the next in the market following on from his
Royal Ascot win and he’s hard to fault in any way. He comes off the back of a
really clear cut win at Royal Ascot, still has something in hand at the
weights, and comes from a team in some very good form and should go close, if
not for the fact he might find trouble.
 |
| Modun - Can get back to winning ways |
Some net research indicated that the last 5 winners have all
been ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance, and that success rate rises when
you only consider claimers riding horses priced 16/1 or shorter. The only horse
that makes appeal under those lines is Green Destiny, whose Ascot run is surely
not his true form. This trip should suit down the ground, he’s still got
improvement left and he’s got some valid excuses for his poor run last time out
(trouble at the start shuffled him very far back). That said, he was still very
disappointing so some caution is needed and he’s drawn 17 out of 20, which
while not the end of the world, is still not ideal for a race of this nature so
he’s swerved in favour of another expensive failure at Royal Ascot in Modun.
He overcame every obstacle presented to him on debut when
slow away and green (also set plenty to do) on Folkestone debut and he was unlucky
to be caught in the last strides on his handicap debut at Kempton. He return in
typical Stoute fashion when an easy winner of a decent 10f Newbury handicap on
reappearance. He got smashed 15lbs for that win but was so deeply impressive it
might have been fair game. Sent off a 100/30 favourite (one of the hottest of
the week) for the Duke Of Edinbrugh Handicap, he ran keen early on but was
never going to handle the soft ground and is now a fair price because of it.
The yard has been in good form this week with 2 big winners and a close second
at the July Festival and Modun can give Sir Michael Stoute an elusive first
winner or at least improve on his already successful record of placings in this
event (0-4-9).
Going back to Newbury, and the Bunbury Cup is a race that
many will be surprised not to see me covering. The long and short of it is that
I think King Of Jazz will win but the value’s gone and I don’t fancy anything
else in the race apart from Mont Agel, who was never in with a chance at Royal
Ascot because of his awful draw but it’s best left alone.
Advice
1 pt each/way Eternal Heart, 2.45 York (8/1Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Rock A Doodle Doo, 2.45 York (8/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt each/way, Modun, 3.15 York (9/1 William Hill)
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