The big cricketing event of the summer marks the return of
regular cricket on the Vic Page, as England and India shape up to fight it out
for the No 1 spot in the Test Rankings. A
win by two or more Tests in the four-match series would move England above India
at the top of the International Cricket Council's world rankings and claim the
number one spot for the first time, although realistic whoever wins this series
is surely the best side in the world on a test basis.
England have enjoyed a superb 12 months in Test cricket with
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Australia all dispatched on the back of
batsmen consistently making big runs and bowlers running through the opposition
in quick time.
Their 1-0 win over Sri Lanka was thanks to the Sri Lanka collapse
after tea, their composure falling away completely as they imploded to lose 8
for 49 in just over 12 overs. That was still a testament to the class of
England’s bowling in the right conditions, which it is likely that they will
have following a lot of rain in England this week, which makes the likes of
Stuart Broad, Chris Tremlett and especially James Anderson bigger threats than
usual.
While you have a lot of reassurance in that, England’s
batting record at Lords is amazing. Courtesy of both Cric Info and also
BettingZone, you can see that Andrew Strauss averages 61.81 at Lord's compared
to 42.98 overall; Kevin Pietersen 60.40 to 48.04; Stuart Broad 64.80 to 27.40,
Ian Bell 64.44 to 45.21, and Jonathan Trott (largely thanks to big hundreds in
both his Tests here), averages a staggeringly irregular 223.00 in contrast to a
very high 63.00 normally.England have passed 500 in five of their last 10 first
innings at Lord's, and only the weather-impacted declaration prevented their
doing so in the first Test of the Sri Lanka series.
Captain Andrew Strauss, absurdly labelled “defensive” by former skipper Michael Vaughan, added an unbeaten 109 to his first-innings 78 as Somerset piled on the runs but settled for a draw with India at Taunton. He’s struggled for form of late, with his highest Test score against Sri Lanka rising to just 20, and has also gone down three times by Sri Lanka's Chanaka Welegedara, a left – arm seamer, which coincidentally is the same style that Zaheer Khan employs.
For England to have a serious chance of winning (talking
about over 65%) it would probably rest on one of the top three Indian Batsmen
with experience of England - Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman –
falling and while that’s possible I don’t quite see it happening.
World Cup Winners (and boy were they impressive too) India
didn’t exactly get a heroes welcome off the back of their 1-0 series win in
India, with their decision to pull out of the chase on the final evening
without really having a go at it being cited as a puzzling and even cowardly
decision by some.
"India were lifted out of the hole in the first Test by Raina and Harbhajan Singh; Dravid played the rescue act in the second innings; VVS Laxman was the saviour in the second Test." Siriam Veera, ESPN Cricinfo
India went into the series without the services of Sehwag,
Tendulkar, Zaheer Khan and Yuvraj Singh, all of whom are back into the fold for
this tour. It was seen as a chance for young Indian players, like Murali Vijay,
but he disappointed with 72 runs in 6 innings. The bowling star of the young
guns was Ishant Sharma, who takes all the accolades after picking up 22 wickets
in the series and picked up the man of the series award. He’s as short as 7/2
for top bowling honours and it would be no surprise to see him challenge and
beat Zaheer Khan for the title of Indian Top Bowler this series, along with
Praveen Kumar, who is as big as 5/1 for the title.
It should be noted however that a vastly more experienced
side, India’s A team, will be making the journey to Lord’s. This side includes
players (as referred to previously) that are all experienced playing in
conditions that are conducive to seamers.
While many Indian batsmen looked notably uncomfortable on a non-flat
batting pitch (which was produced by the West Indian Groundsmen) which they
will encounter but only with better bowlers this time round, the experience
should not be lost on them, and while it’s questionable of the BCCI to have
only one warm up game they’ll have learned plenty.
The last thing to consider is the wagers here. A look
through the last few Innings for England tell you that while they have scores
of (most recent onwards) 377, 335, 479 & 479 on all of those occasions
their highest opening stand was one of 46.
Captain Andrew Strauss has made a few slow starts of late
and with more than enough bowling talent (including one of the world’s best
left arm seamers, the type of bowler that has caused him so much bother)
England could find themselves in a lot of bother early which makes the India
Opening Partnership a wonderful proposition. If that’s the choice, then it also
makes sense to back them to make 29 runs or more.
As far as the match result goes, England or India will need
20 wickets to win and that’s a possibility for both team but not an overly
strong one and the draw is the clear choice. Don’t assume this was made on the
weather forecasts – Britain has had a particularly grim week & Lord’s
handles drainage with contemptuous ease – But with so much battling talent it’s
easily possible and should the rain come in serious quantities then it’s a near
certainty. We’re taking on a team with a great record here but this isn’t any
old side – This is India.
Advice
3 pts Draw (5/6 Skybet)
4 pts India Highest Opening Partnership (6/5 Stan James)
2.5 pts India Opening Partnership to make 29 runs + (5/6
Paddy Power)
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