Copa America - Paraguay v Ecuador

After a relatively successful period of racing (and what a week and a bit it was too) it’s time to go for quality not quality on the horses part and move to the other sporting events of the summer. These are likely to include the Tour De France (when I get properly clued up on the Cycling) but I’ll start with the Copa Americano, and Paraguay v Ecuador.

Those of you (like me) who don’t follow South American football will know Paraguay chiefly for reaching the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time in its history last year, going down only to Champions Spain (a hugely creditable achievement, obviously).

Paraguay’s record in this event on the surface also appeals but not since 1979 have they won, and they have not reached the semi-finals since 1989. Their moment of downfall is nearly almost the Quarter – finals - have been knocked out at the same stage in six of the last seven Copa America tournaments – But they’ll represent stiff opposition for anyone  and can be expected to make a bold bid.

Some will argue whether have made any real improvement since then (their recent results are really no more than par for the course given their talents) but they have a versatile squad that should see them to good effect.

Paraguay can also count on one of the in-form strikers in Europe this season, with Borussia Dortmund’s Lucas Barrios desperate to continue his goal scoring exploits on the biggest stage (he had a relatively disappointing WC 2010 by his own standards).

Ecuador did not make it to the last World Cup and are one of the three CONMEBOL nations never to have won the competition and are going through a transition period that is yet to see them replace 4 or 5 key players that saw them to the 2002 and 2006 World Cups.

The remarkable success of the Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito-the first Ecuadorian club to win an international tournament and the first Ecuadorian club to the win the Copa Sudamericana – Has has had much to do with this. LDU provide five members of the squad, although the best player for many - Manchester United’s Antonio Valencia-  is Ecuador’s standout star and should create the most trouble.

Paraguay's star striker

Looking specifically at the match in question, Ecuador have not won in their last 6 games but have drawn their last 5, while Paraguay (on all evidence) are the ultimate grinders of South American football. The World Cup Quarter finalists can be backed at even money and a standout 21/20 but the draw is available at 12/5, which could be outstanding value given the nature of these two teams  and also the way that some of the “bigger” names have struggled to get going so far (at the time of writing, tournament second favourites Brazil, as short as 1.16 beforehand to beat Venezuela, who are on the drift and out past 29's, are still locked at 0-0 with only 4 minutes left) and it appeals far more than the short price on Paraguay or the out of form Ecuadorians.

That said, if there’s going to be a winner, it’s probably going to be Paraguay so backing them to win 1-0 makes sense given that they’ve seen 10/13 friendlies since the World Cup stay under 2.5 Goals and have four straight clean sheets to their name.

Advice

1 pt Draw (12/5 Coral)

1 pt Paraguay 1-0 correct score (11/2 Stan James)