Copa America hosts Argentina must win their final group game
against Costa Rica on Monday to guarantee their spot in the quarter-finals of
the competition. Sergio Batista’s side have endured a frustrating start to the
tournament on home soil, drawing their opener with Bolivia 1-1, followed by a
goalless draw against Colombia which could easily have gone the other way had
it not been for profligate finishing.
They are third in Group A, one point behind second placed
Costa Rica and two back from group leaders Columbia who sealed their place with
a 2-0 win over misfiring Bolivia last night courtesy of a double. A draw here
would not see them eliminated by any means but it would be nowhere near good
enough as it requires results to go their way, which it almost certainly won’t.
What has actually been the problem with Argentina? The main
problem for them has been not how much talent they have, but how they distribute
it accordingly. As BBC’s South American football expert Tim Vickery explains in a pitch perfect piece, Batisita has valiantly tried and been unsuccessful in moulding the national side in the shape of
Barcelona to a 4-3-3 with Lionel Messi in that false number nine position that
he is famed for.
How they’ll change is still a slight mystery – Batista has
made no hint at strong tactical changes – Although the addition of Di Maria for
Tevez is likely to be a positive along with Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain, and
Fernando Gago all coming in and should they change their strategy it’s likely
from this point of view that they’d be harder to deal with.
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| Will Batista make changes or try to accommodate Messi? |
With the greatest of respect to Costa Rica, they are in no
way unbeatable and while they’ll present a sterner challenge than the odds
suggest they were put in their place by Colombia and very much had the game
handed to them by a 9 man Bolivia who lacked much “anything” at all.
That said, they can make chances and talents such as 19 year
old Joel Campbell will be there to pounce on a defence hardly noted for robust
qualities and they’re more than capable of landing a big blow should they get
the chance.
As the home team and hot favourites the emphasis will be on Argentina
to go for the jugular and it’s easy to see why they will go in all guns blazing
(as they should do). This is also likely to mark the end of caution that marred
early games along with the 2-2 draw between Brazil and Paraguay last night.
While this probably marks the end of bore draws and tight encounters
as the sprint for “home” ensues I’m still tempted by Paddy Power’s offer of the
first goal being after 22 minutes. It’s come up nearly every time in this
tournament and could do so again easily and the price is more than fair for it.
There are all sorts of other interesting wagers (including 1 & 2/0
scorecasts for Argentina) but it’s also fascinating to learn from Betfair that even
of 12 games to date have featured most goals in the second-half (including each
of the last five) and while I’d be expecting Argentina to find the net sometime
soon it’s fair to say that 5/4 about Argentina scoring more goals in the
second half is more than fair and may turn out to be on the mark if the hosts
suffer from a case of the nerves early on.
Advice
3 pts first goal after 22 minutes (10/11 Paddy Power)
1 pt Home Team Half of Most Goals – 2nd half (5/4
Bwin)
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