Malaysian Grand Prix 2013

The start to every Formula One season is dominated by on technical issue or another and this year’s hot issue seems to be tyre wear, which dominated testing and the Australian Grand Prix, with Lotus’s Kimi Raikkonen (pictured) running out a very ready and fairly comfortable winner of the first Grand Prix of the season in Australia last week with Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel never quite able to properly threaten the Finn.

Raikkkonen’s win was superb given that it came from seventh on the grid, but as far as trying to calculate a race is concerned it’s clear that while being one of the fastest cars on the grid, his Lotus is also the easiest on tyres and therefor the most manageable over race distances based on Australia. A corner heavy circuit, Albert Park is an excellent indicator of how cars handle their tyres and with many long sweeping corners Malaysia should bring similar results, even if in the past things haven’t quite turned out that way.

In Malaysia the intense track heat is sure to put yet more pressure on tyre wear, and with that in mind, Raikkonen looks to be a more than worthy favourite to take his second successive win even if some of the value from his price earlier in the week has gone, while he also looks to be value for pole based on his one lap qualifying pace so far this weekend – he pipped Sebastian Vettel in yesterday’s second practice by 0.019s after finishing the first session 0.068s off Mark Webber – certainty he would be no 6/1 shot to land the spoils on that form – and with a better qualifying performance potentially on the cards than Australia, then he makes real appeal to make it two from two and the 4/1 on him landing the title is worth an ante post bet as well. Granted, there’s a lot of the season left to, but Lotus were never stronger than at the end of last season and his price will only get shorter if he's able to get a gap upon established drivers. 

Vettel and Alonso hold obvious chances but both were well held in the later part of the race and on a circuit that will play towards the strengths of the Lotus even more, it’s hard to be enthusiastic about either of their chances, although the excellent start that Ferrari have made by their own standards bodes very well for their chances in the title race this season. In Australia there was never a moment where Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa didn’t look comfortable and with all the data supporting a three-team battle between Lotus, Ferrari and Red Bull, 8/11 looks to be very reasonable about Massa making the top 6 for the second race in a row.  The 8/13 on Lotus having two cars in the points would also make appeal, given that Grosjean could be set to improve upon last week’s limp showing when suffering a poor start and then having his strategy suffer, but the 2’s about Force India doing so for the same week is better value.

That all sounds simple enough, but the rain showers here at Malaysia can make for some dramatic changes and will have much more of an effect here in Malaysia than anywhere else on the Calendar. As seen in practice, the track will change rapidly based on how much rain falls and at what times – the pole shootout is only ten minutes and the second qualifying session just 5 minutes longer – and if the rainfall that’s expected is as dramatic as it can be then Fernando Alonso would make huge appeal for both pole and the race; His two poles last year came in rain affected qualifying sessions and his Ferrari was amongst the quickest whenever rain fell at Melbourne.

Advice – Dry

1 pt win Kimi Raikkonen (9/4 general) (now 15/2 w/Bet Victor and a general 7/1 after qualifying)

3 pts Felipe Massa top 6 finish (8/11 general) (Now 1/2 general) 

1 pt Force India double points finish (2/1 general)

Advice – Wet

1 pt each/way Fernando Alonso to take pole (14/1 Hills, 12/1 general)

1 pt win Fernando Alonso (7/2 general)

Ante post

2 pts Kimi Raikkonen to win Drivers’ Title (4/1 general)

5 pts Kimi Raikkonen to finish in 1^st three of drivers title (8/13 Paddy Power)