Whisper it quietly, but England are only two games away
from a Grand Slam and judging by today’s winning margin against Italy, could be
just one game away from just their second title since 2003. Wales go into
next week's crunch match with a theoretical chance of the championship but with a seven point
difference already in their favour, England can all but remove the possibility
of that, as every point they win by today – and that is a 1/40 chance, having
never lost against Italy in the history of the tournament – means Wales have to
beat them by one more in Cardiff next week, and England haven’t lost a test by
double figures home or away since 2011 – ironically their last game coming under that category being a
defeat the Millennium stadium.
Italy come here with a very realistic chance of avoiding the
wooden spoon thanks to the late comeback of France against Ireland to salvage a
draw yesterday, and that alone is something for Brunel’s side to be grateful
for, although there’s a feeling that they could have made more of a campaign
that started so promisingly with their victory over France – achieved with more
panache and style than any of their other previous victories in the tournament – which
in many ways signifies how much Italian rugby has progressed since the start of
the 6 Nations proper. There’s still so much ground to be covered properly
though, evidenced by their two subsequent heavy defeats against Scotland and
Wales, and playing away is still a real killer for the national side even
though Italian clubs are improving on that stage in Europe.
England have been criticised by some for a lack of attacking
play against Ireland and Wales but conditions at the Aviva ruined any chance of
a half decent running game in Dublin and the emphasis was very much on size and
game management against the French, with the game being won in the latter
stages when England were able to empty their bench to far greater effect than Les Bleus. After their week one win, the Italians were destroyed
by the Scots from open play and then taken apart by the Welsh in the scrums and contact, so England
should feel confident about taking a big win from today’s encounter.
Of the changes that have been made, the new half back
pairing of Toby Flood and Danny Care may be the most significant, with Flood
impressing in the appearance he made against France, and Care one of the most
dangerous 9’s around the fringes in the tournament, and this could see England
look to go wide for the first time since the opening win against Scotland, who
beat the Italians by 24 points at Murrayfield, were beaten by 20 points here on
the opening weekend, while Wales were able to leave the Stadio Flaminio with a
17 point win, which makes a 24 point handicap for the hosts, who have posted
wins by margins of 46 and 25 points in their last two meetings on English solid
with sides that looked inferior to this current unit.
Advice
3 pts England – 24 (10/11 Sportingbet)
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