Premiership - 29th March 2013

With just four games to go until the end of the season, every week is a crucial one in the Premiership but when third plays fifth, first plays sixth and second plays fourth, it’s fair to say that this might be one of the more defining weekends of the season so far, especially when considering that in each of the three crunch games, as if to add more spice, the higher placed team is travelling.

Champions Harlequins are on the brink of slipping out of the top two places and missing out on a home semi-final after two defeats in their last two games and are slight outsiders for their crunch game with Gloucester tonight, presumably upon the basis that they have had only a five day turnaround from a heavy beating at Saracens, while Gloucester’s contingent are expected to improve markedly for their first outing in three weeks last weekend. That may well be accurate, but Gloucester needed a penalty 5 minutes from time to sneak past relegation favorites London Welsh by a single point in a game that they were lucky to win by all accounts – there was the issue of Johnny May pretty much preventing an overlap and try which wasn’t punished with the penalty try that head coach Lyn Jones wanted and Gordon Ross’s missed kick and conversion going array before three late penalties in 13 minutes from Freddie Burns. It may well be that the Cherry and Whites – with players like Freddie Burns and Billy Twelvetrees especially at the focus of their attacking threat -improve greatly for the outing, but Harlequins are several levels about what London Welsh have to offer in every department and may have received an important wakeup call with those defeats in the last two weeks. The heavy workload they’ve had has been co in some part with members of the LV Cup winning side now coming into the starting XV to give freshness. There’s a big worry that they’ve not won at Kingsholm since 1999, but Gloucester don’t look like value favourites and an away win by 1-12 or 1-5 points looks to be the best value in the game; Given that Quins have won by two three and 5 points on the road this term and beat Gloucester by just three points at home, the latter looks to be the value although start of 3 points at 10/11 with Coral is tempting.

Moving on from what should be a feat of Friday night running rugby, Northampton and Leicester square off in what can safely be described without offence as a game for the hardmen between two of the best packs in England. With four wins in their last 4, all thanks to their classic driving maul, the Saints are now probably favorites for a semi-final spot from the chasing pack of Gloucester and Wasps with a 4 point lead over that pair going into this weekend, and with key figures such as Dylan Hartley all at their best, they’ll feel confident about beating their famed rivals on home soil. However most of Northampton’s successes this season have come against rivals with weaker packs than them – both Saracens and Harlequins were clear winners there earlier in the season while the pace of Johnny May did for them in a 27-11 home defeat – and Leicester, who have the best away record in the league with 27 points gained on the road, boast both the weapons upfront and the skill in behind to take the honors here by the tightest of margins.

The bet of the weekend however, is resurgent Saracens to inflict just a second defeat upon Wasps at home this season and put one foot into the semi-finals, with home games against Bath and Worcester still to come before the end of the season. Mark McCall’s side have so often been cruised for playing less attractive rugby than most here but this season nothing could have been more different and the way in which they took apart Harlequins was one of the most impressive performances of the club season so far.

Admittedly their recent streak has been aided with three home games on a pitch they’re now well accustomed too but there’s no denying their talent, form or position in the table – they lie 45 points clear and have won two more games than anyone else so far – and boast a pack at least as powerful as the Saints bunch that forced Wasps into three yellow cards last weekend, while the go forward offloading game they employed last weekend looked to be an ideal tactic to take on Wasps with. The home side should enjoy the more positive approach Saracens take and the more charitable weather, but this is England’s meanest defence and the leaders can fight fire with fire if they like; Either way, they look to be the clear bet.

Advice

6 pts Saracens (8/11 general)

1 pt Saracens to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Harlequins to win by 1-15 points (9/2 general)

1 pt Leicester to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)