Jockeys Championship Preview 2012/13

It won’t have been more than a week since Cheltenham ended but today signals the official start of the flat season in England and with it the race for top jockey and trainer titles not just here but also in Ireland, with their season commencing on Sunday.

Ryan Moore is well established as a world class jockey and with an
injury free season, is value to regain his title

After finally gaining a well deserved title last year, it’s no surprise to see Richard Hughes as a strong favourite to retain his title following his utterly dominant season last year, coming home well clear of William Buick with 31 winners in hand. With Richard Hannon’s stable having the dominant hold on juvenile opportunities for many years now, and the quality of older horses in the yard having increased tenfold over the last few years, he is an obvious favourite to go in once again and it’s hard to argue with quotes of 4/5 for him to retain his title, especially when one considered that he had a 50 day ban as well to contend with which you could easily have seen curtailing his title bid before it had properly began.

With his motivation for the task in no doubt and Britain’s strongest yard at his disposal, Hughes will be immensely hard to beat but if there’s one man capable of challenging him then it’s Ryan Moore and at 7/2 he’s the value in what could be called a two man race. After winning his second successive title in 2009 many had him down as a potential AP McCoy of the flat, but injuries and international commitments have prevented him from making another significant title challenge since. Despite that, he’s ridden 137, 94, and 115 winners in each of the last three seasons. In 2010 he rode at an 18% strike rate but had only 772 rides to the 1102 and 1045 of Paul Hanagan and Richard Hughes, riding 137 winners despite that, while it was the same story last year when he had 294 less rides than Hughes but still managed to tally 114.

Sir Michael Stoute’s stable hasn’t got the strength in depth it used to but nearly every trainer in the country will jump at the chance to use him and if he goes injury free, his strike rate over the last two seasons suggests he holds a 50/50 percentage chance of taking the title at least; at 7/2 he is the obvious call. In both his title winning years, Moore had margins of well over the 15 and 25 winner starts he’s offered by Skybet and Hills respectively, so take him on the jockey handicap as well.

Graham Lee had 87 winners last year and could expect to easily pass that
tally with more support from established sides 

William Buick is a future champion in waiting but John Gosden has freely admitted his strength in depth doesn’t match last season and with his focus very much on the bigger events, one wonders if he will have the volume of rides needed to make a serious challenge this year.; Paul Hanagan has the same problem when looking at a title challenge given his increasing international commitments despite his admirable efforts when presented with the chance. Silvestre De Sousa ‘s barren run for Goldophin cost him any title challenge but he commands the volume of rides – helped by the fact he can go down to 7-12 easily – and he has a major stable behind him to provide ammunition as well. Also of appeal on the handicap is Graham Lee, who had 87 winners last year despite having no contracts during the season. He would need to improve upon a strike rate of just 11% but with his profile well established and his eyes solely on the prize, it’s hard not to see him improving greatly on that; Take the 8/11 Stan James offer on him having him 100+ winners.

Advice

5 pts Ryan Moore (7/2 general)

1 pt each/way Ryan Moore +15 on Jockey wins handicap (11/1 general)

1 pt win Ryan Moore +25 on jockey wins handicap (9/1 Hills)

1 pt each/way Graham Lee +40 on Jockey wins handicap (11/1 general)

4 pts Graham Lee to have 100+ winners (8/11 Stan James)