Tuesday, 5 March 2013

Champions League Last 16 2013 - Manchester United v Real Madrid


The first leg was billed as the ‘perfect game’ but tonight’s encounter between Manchester United and Real Madrid could well be one of the outstanding ties of the season with qualification for the last eight well within the reach of both sides after the first leg.

Before this tie Madrid, outright tips and second favourites for the tournament, were heavy favourites to qualify but many would argue that Manchester United are better placed after the 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu three weeks ago, which leaves them going through as things stand, although no-one in the footballing world truly believes for a minute that it’s going to end 0-0; Madrid have scored in 31 of their last 32 Champions League games and United have not  lost a meaningful Champions League match at Old Trafford since AC Milan in 2005.

Indeed, United were the biggest price in the modern era for a home win this morning and that quickly becoming very tempting when you take a look at Real Madrid’s away record this season. Mourinho’s men have drawn two and lost 5 games on the road in La Liga this season, while they’ve also failed to win two of their three games on the road in the Champions League, losing at Dortmund and being held to a 1-1 draw at Eastlands.  

United’s last defeat in all competitions came in the Champions League against CFR Cluj at Old Trafford 18 games ago, and despite much criticism of their early season form and performances, the stats say they’re one of the best of recent times. While admittedly at the end of the first leg they had which has conceded 31 league goals at an average of 1.19 per game – a mean (a word alien to United's back four this season) higher than any English champions since Ipswich shipped 67 goals in 42 games in 1961-62; The United class of 2012-13 also have 65 points – not only 14 points better off than the 1999 treble winners at this stage but, incredibly, more than any United side managed by Sir Alex Ferguson after 26 games, and a tally is also better than Arsenal's Invincibles (64 points after 26 games in 2003-04). And equal to José Mourinho's 2004-05 Chelsea side, who went on to smash the Premier League points record.

It’s grim reading for Madrid on that basis, but as they say, a’ week is a long time in football’ and the last 7 days could not have been more perfect for Los Blacos. Considered to be up against the wall by many in the second leg of their Copa Del Rey tie, they destroyed Barcelona 3-1 at the Camp Nou with a counter-attacking masterclass, before repeating the dose 2-1 at the Bernabeu on Saturday in a game many considered obsolete given that Barcelona  were at the time 16 points clear, although it’s worth nothing Mdird had the luxury  of making 7 changes for that side. It doesn’t take a genius to work out that this is a match on a knife edge, and with both sides evidently better going forward than back, goals might be the answer; The 4/7 for over 2.5 goals is potentially generous.

Advice

2 pts Over 2.5 goals (4/7 general)


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