Godolphin Mile 2013

1.10 Meydan

Godolphin Mile Sponsored By Etisalat (Group 2) (Tapeta) (3yo+)

Winner: £368,098

Advice: 1 pt each/way Surfer (15/2 Hills, Bet Victor, 8/1 Sportingbet)

Alpha: Dead heated in Travers Stakes last year but failed to get anywhere close to that form since and others make far more appeal .

Murfarrh: Helped by an overly strong gallop when winning C&D handicap latest (went notably wider than runner up) when landing C&D handicap latest but runner up in this last year and worth considering on that basis with winner going for World Cup and rest of field closely matched

Red Jazz: Coming back here for the third time, having been third in this for two years running; Little below top class in Europe but still better than able to show on return (ridden all wrong); Still needs more here even if that run brings him on notably.

Time Prisoner: Talented in France and still progressive here, denying mark of 112 in handicap company and then staying on well when fourth in Group 3 over 6f; Still may have more to give and worth considering.

Zazou: Talented horse over further, as his World Cup fifth last time showed, but not lose to that level in two runs for his yard and this trip plenty sharp enough for one like him; Look elsewhere.

Surfer: Improved hand over first here over last year, winning twice in November and December at Jebel Ali (7f) before two excellent efforts in Group 2 and 1 company over 10f, both times coming a respectable distance behind Godolphin’s No.1 World Cup hope Hunter’s Light; This drop in trip should suit him down to a tee and arguably the form horse of the field.

Sarkiyla: Only the eight starts but already a Group and Listed winner and clear from her form that she likes a good surface (slightly disappointing on softer ground the last twice); Could go well with yet more to come and high on list.

Master Of Hounds: Went too hard when trying to repeat the front running tactics that saw him steal last year’s Jebel Hatta; This a little easier on the figures and has got the class to go well, so interesting especially if not pressured for the lead.

Rerouted: Shaped very well on each of his  four starts this season, twice arriving too late into the fray over 9f and shaping as if a mile would suit when in two smooth 7f wins; This demands more of him than just 115 however and others make more appeal.

Haatheq: Totally worked over by the draw last year (13/13) and hasn’t had a great trip since then, 14/14 when fourth in Group 3 over C&D and never able to land a blow in Group 1 latest although he was well behind Surfer there; Of interest although work to do to reverse form with that one.

Penitent: Excellent record fresh, and career best efforts in succession when winner of Joel Stakes and then second in Prix La Foret behind Gordon Lord Bryon; Surface an unknown but another with a chance (stronger than most) and he has acted on Polytrack before.

Capital Attraction: May be 6 but been on an upwards curve for good year now and second last year to African Story, and showed he’s at same level when second to same horse last time out although able to dictate then; Outside chance but draw no help.

Soft Falling Rain: Very impressive when unbeaten 4-4 as juvenile in South Africa (all sprint trips) and impressive on both starts so far here, winning nicely over 7f and a mile (UAE Guineas) although both races not worked out so well; While he can progress further still, this a lot harder and draw 13 does not make things easy for him; Vulnerable.

Saamidd: So much promise as 2yo but never been the same since Dewhurst disappointment and while he’s shown promise in the UAE on last two starts late in the day but drawn in 14 and that means the hold-up route is likely to be best chance of success; More needed.

Moonwalk In Paris: Ex French and still carries same quirks which hindered him in France judged on way he reacted to more front running ride when one place behind Capital Attraction (previously very impressive from behind having started in stall 1); Far too wide for anything but the drop in tactics to be used but this a deep event.

Barbecue Eddie: Had no answer to Moonwalk In Paris’s speed when third in Group 3 event over C&D although he had won Group 2 beforehand; 16 of 16 is a nightmare draw though and looks slightly exposed.

VERDICT: A tight renewal with many that are closely matched. Soft Falling Rain still has plenty to give judged on his two easy wins here so far but both races have worked out very badly, this is a lot tougher, and a draw of 13 is very off-putting for a race this well contested. In any case, he’s not the form horse in the race, an hour which belongs to SURFER following two efforts behind World Cup contender Hunter’s Light over 10 furlongs. The drop back to a mile will really suit him, and with a perfect draw in stall 6, he looks to be the outstanding value of the race although chances can be given to many in an open betting event.