Both Scotland and Wales lie in remarkably similar positions
coming towards the end of this year’s 6 Nations and Welsh title hopes can be
kept alive with a win over the Scots to set up a thrilling collusion with
England next week. With France and Ireland out of contention for the title, and
England well expected to rack up a big victory against the Italians tomorrow,
Wales realistically need to win and win well if they’re to have a slim hope at
the title; The English have a points difference that’s 17 points superior to
the Welsh, and have a handicap line set of around 25-30 points, meaning that
Wales – assuming victory today, would have to beat England by a record breaking
margin if they were to retain their title.
To say that victory today is assured would be most
incompetent on behalf of the Welsh following Scotland’s recent resurgence under
Scott Johnson and his new setup, which has already bought back the things
Scottish rugby was missing beforehand in tenfold; Tries, defence, and belief,
thanks mainly to the lightening quick back three of Tim Visser, Sean Matilaind,
and especially Stuart Hogg, all of whom are now being touted as potential Lions
candidates following their strong showings, including their four try win over
Italy on week 2, although their ability to mix and match when denying the Irish
through sheer sprit and strength at the set piece, although in reality it was a
game the Irish lost rather than the Scots won.
A 3-0 lead at half time should have been at least triple
that thanks to the three line breaks they made – two of which were absolutely
butchered – and the numerous penalty chances they passed up off the tee went
array with Rory Best having his worst game seen for many years, while Paddy
Jackson – who himself had a solid game creating opportunities with ball in hand
– missed several takeable kicks throughought the game too. The likes of Jim
Hamilton and Kelly Brown deserve huge credit for their performances – as does
everyone on the team for their defensive strength close to the scramble.
Wales were beaten by Ireland on the first weekend but played
better than their half time score would suggest and haven’t put a foot wrong
since, showing the extremely proficient game management skills that had bought
them their Grand Slam win last year to beat France, and coming through Italy
with consummate ease despite atrocious weather conditions. Ireland came to
Murrayfield with numerous injuries – the fly half debacle is still raging to an
extent and Cian Healy’s absence didn’t help either in the loose or at the scrum
– while this is a fully fit Welsh side from 1-15. As strong in the contact as
any team in this year’s Championship, a fully fit backline that’s arguably the
most creative in the tournament, and a bonefide goal-kicker in Leigh Halfpenny,
this Welsh side may well be a different proposition to the Irish shambles that
turned up two weeks ago and can win well
enough to cover a 4 point handicap, even if Scotland keep them honest enough to
prevent the trashing needed to stay in touch with England.
Advice
6 pts Wales -4 (5/6 Sportingbet, 4/5 Blue Sq, 888 Sport)
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