One would imagine that ‘how did it come to this?’ is a much
asked question at 6 Nations time, but for Ireland it’s the outstanding
question of a campaign which has yielded little but frustration since their
fantastic opening day win against Wales. Since then they’ve failed to win a
game, scoring just 27 points in the three games since that convincing win.
Horrendous weather for home games against England and France
curtailed any chances of proper rugby, but the second half curse which has
struck on three occasions now (four if you strictly count the Wales game). In 14 games since the World Cup, only England,
Argentina, Scotland and Italy have failed to outscore Ireland after the
turnaround, with two of those coming against last year’s far weaker outfits,
making it 6 winning positions having been turned into four losses and two
draws; In their last two games they have failed to add a single point after the
break.
In measurement of actual results, defeats by 6 and 4 points
along with a draw aren’t exactly humiliating on the face of it, but since injuries
have started to step in Ireland have been kept pointless in the last 40 which for
a side that seems to have no major problems with fitness, is a frankly
unacceptable stat.
Italy are the team that the least is expected of in this
championship but it says something that they’re given a handicap of just 5
points for today after a campaign of progress which started in such style
against France. Heavy defeats against Scotland especially and Wales here were a
painful reminder of the fact that Italy still have some way to go, but they’ve
improved hand over first since Brunel came to takeover at the helm and are now
capable of playing attacking rugby – Parisse alone has passed more times than
the whole Irish backrow this tournament, a frankly alarming stat – and they’ve
actually managed more offloads than any other team in the tournament.
England were widely expected by many (yours truly included)
to pick up and swat away the Italians with ease at Twickenham but Italy stood
firm, played all the rugby in the second half (their usual weakness) and in the
end have created the title decider we relish so much today. If Ireland are
anywhere near below par in any aspect of the game today a first defeat against
Italy in 6 Nations history is a real possibility. With dry conditions expected
to suit both teams (and Ireland’s Paddy Jackson now looking far more at home in
the 10 slot), the points market would have been a helpful alternative but
Ireland’s propensity to blow seemingly certain chances tempers enthusiasm for a
mark of 40 overall. The 5/2 on Italy is
not without it’s merits too, for all that they’re blighted by inconsistency at
times, and in what’s not really a game for lumpy stakes, it might be best to
back an away win by 1-12 points. Italy are the most stubborn of sides defensively
and Ireland’s propensity to blow big chances may keep the hosts in the game for
longer than expected.
Advice
1 pt Ireland to win by 1-12 points (6/4 Ladbrokes, 11/8
general)
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