New Zealand v England - 3rd Test

Nick Compton has been in fine form and could have ideal conditions
late in the match

The least that England could have expected from their first test series of the year was a series victory but the weather could deny them even that after what’s been an already frustrating tour against New Zealand so far. Comprehensive victories in the T20 and ODI series – the weakest formats of the game as far as England are concerned - had looked to be the perfect preparation for a fairly easy series win but a combination of typical first test sluggishness and heavy rain have denied England a winning chance so far this time around and they may well be frustrated again at Eden Park.

The ground is most famous for hosting some of the best Rugby in the world – including the final and two semi finals of the Rugby World Cup – but a ‘drop in pitch that was grown near the Eden Park outer oval will transform the stadium into a cricket venue. The pitch is expected to have more pace and bounce than either of the other two (an assumption fairly reliably backed up by the ODI and T20 matches played here beforehand), which lends itself towards a result and lends one towards backing England, but the funny nature of drop in pitches – at least according to the few modern matches played at Eden Park – to improved rapidly as the game goes on could halt any successful momentum made by either side. When England came here in 2002 they were 0-2 after the first over in a game which they went onto win – there were also two centuries and two double centuries to end the game.

No one is predicting the pitch to be that wet, but opening conditions could be tricky for New Zealand if put into bat – they made just 254 put up first time out – and if the scenario that they would make less than 320 occurs then a result would be very much on, but the weather forecast has hindered both tests so far and with rain forecast for both Saturday and Sunday the draw is easily the most appealing of the three match outcomes despite England’s riches with both bat and ball if the weather and pitch relent for the first time this series.

The incredibly short boundaries here make scoring bets very tempting, but unpredictability about how the pitch will play and how much time batsmen and bowlers alike will get uninterrupted; Stuart Broad makes appeal to be best of the England bowlers but those markets might be best used in play.

Ashes rivals Australia have already lost their series with India and are facing a whitewash. However India’s slow chase – albeit one that was held up by a day’s play having been lost – tempers enthusiasm yet Australia seem to weak to be trusted with holding out for a draw so that match may well be best avoided for betting purposes barring the excellent Ojha for top bowler if one must have an interest.

Advice

1 pt draw (4/1 Sportingbet, 3/1 general)